NFL Predictions - Week 13 (Procrastination)

I have been flaky this week, but I’m going to plow through the predictions for tomorrow’s games quickly here. I may add a little extra context sometime later if I have time.

Sunday, Dec. 4
**MIAMI 5 Buffalo 35 **
This game feels like a good opportunity for an upset, but the Bills poor run defense and the decision to start Losman scares me away. I just don’t have the guts to pick it.

The Pick: Dolphins, Over

**PITTSBURGH 3 Cincinnati 41½ **
I think Cincy takes this one. Big Ben is not as close to 100% as they need him to be and the Bengals are playing much better than they were during that first matchup. We can look forward to CJ’s newest performace.

The Pick: Bengals, Over

**BALTIMORE 8½ Houston 37½ **
The Ravens simply should not be favored by nearly 9 points over anyone. I think the Texans have just enough to make a game of this and maybe sneak out a win.

The Pick: Texans, Under

**INDIANAPOLIS 15½ Tennessee 50½ **
The Colts have hit their stride, no question about it. Tennessee has some talent, but they can’t keep it close in the dome. They embarrassed Pittsburgh’s D….this week could get ugly.

The Pick: Colts, Under

**Jacksonville 2½ CLEVELAND 33 **
This just in, Fred Taylor is sitting out hurt again. Contain your surprise. I just have a hunch that the Leftwich injury will knock the Jags off their game this week. Gerrard can play, but I think he’ll need a week to gather himself first.

The Pick: Browns, Over

**N.Y. GIANTS 3 Dallas 41 **
The Cowboys just cut Peerless Price…things haven’t exactly worked out for him since leaving Buffalo, did they? I like the Giants, but I’d be lying if I said I were confident in that. These NFC East teams just create ways to lose games, we’ll see who gives it away first here. I don’t suppose a Bledsoe INT would surprise anyone.

The Pick: Giants, Over

**CHICAGO 7 Green Bay 30½ **
Bears, big time. And I’m hoping this is the final start of Favre’s streak. The Bears front 7 will be picking pieces of him out of their teeth.

The Pick: Bears, Over

**Minnesota 2 DETROIT 38 **
I haven’t quite figured this one out yet. Part of me thinks the Lions have one last gasp. Garcia is starting and Mooch is gone. They either win this one or they lose every game for the rest of the season. Still, the Vikes have been steadily solid and without any key mistakes they can keep putting pressure on the Bears. I’ll stick with the chalk here.

The Pick: Vikes, Under

**CAROLINA 3 Atlanta 43 **
Both teams are seriously flawed and those early predictions calling these two teams the ones to beat in the NFC have been totally debunked. The Panthers have devolved into a pathetic rushing team and the Falcons couldn’t stop a toddler. In the end I like Steve Smith to will a victory.

The Pick: Panthers, Under

**Tampa Bay 3½ NEW ORLEANS 38½ **
I think things are liable to get ugly as New Orleans stakes its claim to Reggie Bush. Big day for the Caddy.

The Pick: Bucs, Under

**Arizona 3 SAN FRANCISCO 44½ **
The 49ers are coming around slowly. I think they make a game of it at home and the D will show up, but Larry Fitzgerald is just too much.

The Pick: Cards, Over

**Washington 3 ST. LOUIS 45½ **
I think the Fitzpatrick show keeps going strong for one more week. I make this prediction primarily because it means that my pathetic fantasy QB situation is beyond salvaging.

The Pick: Rams, Under

**NEW ENGLAND 10 N.Y. Jets 41 **
The Pats are favored by 10? That’s got to be a typo. I’ll be the first to remind you that the Jets suck, but the Pats are running on fumes and limping into the playoffs. Worth remembering that this is a divisional clash too.

The Pick: Jets, Over

**Denver 1 KANSAS CITY 45 **
The Chiefs are going to get it done. The Chiefs always win at home in December and the Broncos can’t win there. The Chiefs are in a do or die situation and I’m still concerned about Plummer if the game is tight.

The Pick: Chiefs, Under

**SAN DIEGO 11 Oakland 50 **
I love the Chargers. Total fanboy pick here, I won’t lie to you. Still, I feel pretty good about giving away 11 to the imploding Raiders.

The Pick: Chargers, Over

Monday, Dec. 5
Seattle 4 PHILADELPHIA 41½
This spread should be bigger. If the Seahawks are the team to beat you’d expect a touchdown or more against a hapless squad without it’s starting QB. This could tell us something about how good the oddsmakers think the ‘Hawks are and that they really like Mike McMahon at home. Then again, it could just mean that there are an awful lot of irrational Philly gamblers. I’m going with the latter.

The Pick: Seahawks, Over

OMNI picks: Chargers, Colts, Bucs, Texans, Cincy

hehheh, we’re in the same place, my friend. I came online a couple hours ago to do football stuff, and just haven’t been in the mood, so I’ve been wandering around reading and replying to random threads. Now here it is 100 minutes to kickoff and I finally steeled myself to come to this forum and look for your picks thread. Bravo on your subtitle.

Thing is, I’m really not in the mood for football stuff, and haven’t been all week. So much so that I never even updated the division records, and last week had excellent divisional observations that I could make.

Gee, I wonder what it could have possibly been that soured me on the NFL this week? Surely something happened…

Let’s see, things I could do if I had the energy:

  1. Go through all games last week and tally the divisional records, and then do writeups and such for all eight divisions.
  2. Go through all the games last week to tally the records against the spreads you posted in the thread from last week.
  3. Use those records against the spread to calculate spread picker picks for all the games this week.
  4. Make my picks on the games this week, and then formulate a mock betting strategy.
  5. Type in all the games – plus my picks – into my spreadsheet that will formulate the neat-o table I use automatically.

See, I really want to have already done all that stuff, but I just don’t have the inclination. As each one of those steps takes 20 minutes minimum – and the division records thread would take an hour, easy – I must accept that they ain’t getting done.

But as I type this, I’m getting a second wind. It’s almost as if Jay Feely isn’t the worst kicker in the history of the NFL, and my soul wasn’t ground into a fine powder in Seattle. Let’s see how much I can get done in the next 84 minutes.

1:00pm…**DOLPHINS…5…Bills…35…**Under
1:00pm…**STEELERS…3…Bengals…41½…**Bengals and the over
1:00pm…**RAVENS…8½…Texans…37½…**Texans win outright. Over
1:00pm…**COLTS…15½…Titans…50½…**Titans cover, but it stays under.
1:00pm…**Jaguars…2½…BROWNS…33…**Jags even without Leftwich, making it under.
1:00pm…**GIANTS…3…Cowboys…41…**Giants and the over. WAY over.
1:00pm…**BEARS…7…Packers…30½…**Packers and the under.
1:00pm…**Vikings…2…LIONS…38…**Lions and the over.
1:00pm…**PANTHERS…3…Falcons…43…**Panthers end the streak.
1:00pm…**Bucs…3½…SAINTS…38½…**Bucs should be able to cover if they don’t suck balls.

4:05pm…**Cards…3…49ERS…44½…**Cards I guess. Way over.
4:05pm…**Redskins…3…RAMS…45½…**Bet the over.
4:15pm…**PATRIOTS…10…Jets…41…**Ugh.
4:15pm…**Broncos…1…CHIEFS…45…**Broncos end the streak. Over.

8:30pm…**CHARGERS…11…Raiders…50…**Raiders and the under.
9:00pm…**Seahawks…4…EAGLES…41…**Eagles and the over.

Early Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Giants getting 5, Colts giving 7½, Bucs getting 4½
Risk 30 for 25 on the Giants

Late Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Rams getting 11, Broncos getting 7, 49ers getting 11
Risk 30 for 125 on the Rams, Broncos & 49ers

Sunday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Raiders & the Under

Monday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Eagles & the Over

Let’s see where i stand now … 6-8-1 last week to give me a season total of 40-46-3. Not too great.

Here we go this week…
MIAMI defeats Buffalo fv 5
PITTSBURGH defeats Cincinnati fv 3
BALTIMORE defeats Houston fv 8.5
Tennessee defeats INDIANAPOLIS ud 15.5
CLEVELAND defeats Jacksonville ud 2.5
Dallas defeats NY GIANTS ud 3
Green Bay defeats CHICAGO ud 7
DETROIT defeats Minnesota ud 2
Atlanta defeats CAROLINA ud 3
Tampa Bay defeats NEW ORLEANS fv 3.5
Arizona defeats SAN FRANCISCO fv 3
Washington defeats ST LOUIS fv 3
KANSAS CITY defeats Denver ud 1
Oakland defeats SAN DIEGO ud 11

I hope it isn’t wrong to ask this in this thread. If so, please ignore. But is anyone else old enough to remember Jim Plunkett from the Raiders back in the 80s? And does anyone else think Jake Delhomme is very similar to him?

Looks like the less thought I put into these things, the better I do. Go figure.

Pretty good, except that Smith’s will had less to do with the Panthers’ win than a very good defensive plan that completely nullified Vick’s passing as well as the Atlanta running game. I think you were a bit premature on calling predictions about Carolina’s post-season “debunked”. There’s quite a bit of bunk yet remaining.

I never said they weren’t making the postseason, but you and I could run the ball against Atlanta’s D. They are not the team to beat, and I’m betting on a first round playoff exit unless Foster really turns it on.

Atlanta, yeah. I agree. Carolina still has the bunk, though. The Superbowl is a very real possibility.

Better hope they don’t face, oh say, the Bears in the playoffs. :dubious:

That Super Bowl prediction gets pretty iffy when they are held to about 40 yards rushing against any team with a defense.