NFL Predictions - Week 12 (Gobble, gobble, gobble)

In My Humble Opinion
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Ok folks, here’s the big Turkey Day predictions. I’m going to plow through as many games as I can and we’ll see if I finish. I’ve got stuffing in the oven for tomorrow and a bartending shift tonite, then a early morning to pick up the turkey and drive to see the folks. Needless to say it’s gonna be a busy 48 hours. Anyways, if I get cut short I’ll wrap it up on Friday. Here we go. FYI, USA Today has no O/U lines listed, and instead of finding them elsewhere I’m just going to disregard them for now.

Might as well add the linky linky, especially since there’s a few comments about this week’s action in last weeks thread.

Here’s the Linky-Linky

NFL Predictions - Week 1 (the Reckoning)
NFL Predictions - Week 2 (the Reconciliation)
NFL Predictions - Week 3 (Clarity)
NFL Predictions - Week 4 (Resilience)
NFL Predictions - Week 5 (Bargaining)
NFL Predictions - Week 6 (Where Fred Smoot is Planning My Weekend)
NFL Predictions - Week 7 (Zygi Wilf and his four-letter words)
NFL Predictions - Week 8 (You can put it on the board! YES!)
NFL Predictions - Week 9 (The Ides of Autumn)
NFL Predictions - Week 10 (Over The Precipice)
NFL Predictions - Week 11 (Gazoo Appreciation Week)

Put Your 2005 NFL Predictions Here
NFL Division Rankings '05
Third Annual Steelers March to the Super Bowl
All Things NFC East 2005

He Hate Me Keeper League Mid-Season Draft Review 2006
Yahoo fantasy football signup now open…
SDMB Fantasy Football draft recap (Prolate Spheroids)
Thursday, Nov 24th
**Atlanta 3 DETROIT **
I’m surprised that this spread isn’t bigger based on the popular opinion of these two teams. Normally that means I have a god idea of who to pick, but in this case I actually agree with it. I think people are too down on Detroit and too high on Atlanta, though the talking heads are starting to question the Falcons too. Detroit’s defense is good, simple and unqualified. Most of those lopsided scores can be blamed on the ghastly moments the offense has had. However, they have seemed to be coming together just a bit. On the flipside, Atlanta’s formula just isn’t working. It almost looks as if Mora has said “Fuck it, if I want to keep Vick from turning into the QB on The Program I need to make him throw for 300 yards a game to keep him happy.” Back in the day, the Falcons would run it about 45 times and throw it 18 and win. Now Vick is throwing 35 times for 275+ yds and the Falcons D is giving up 30 points a game, coincidence?, I think not.

The Pick: Lions

**Denver 2 DALLAS **
I’ve gone back and forth on this game several times. First of all the Cowboys tend to be tough at home, especially on Turkey Day. The Broncos one flaw is the pass defense, which leaves quite a lot to be desired. Bledsoe and his guys have been pretty dangerous at times and have managed to make a scary number of timely big plays. Dallas has really gotten serious about pounding the ball between the tackles too. On the other hand, Denver is damn good at stopping the run and certainly is potent offensively. On a short week Denver is likely to have an advantage because I think they are fundamentally better and the relative lack of scheming on both sides helps them. Dallas has a top flight defense, statistically a little better than the Broncos. In the end it’s a pretty close call, but I think Denver is just on a roll.

The Pick: Denver

I’m going to keep working on some more picks tonite, but I wanted to get tomorrow’s games up before it got too late. Hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving.

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And here’s the first half of the weekend games. I’ll get to the rest when I get time.

Sunday, Nov 27th
**KANSAS CITY 3 New England **
The Chiefs are alternating between awful and good these days and the trick here is to figure which version is going to show up this week. The Pats aren’t going to put up stiff competition if the Chiefs come ready to play, but if the Chiefs are off their game I have no doubt that the Pats will get it done. My key stat is the Pats iffy run defense versus the occasionally dominant Larry Johnson. In my efforts to start giving home teams more credit (in hopes of salvaging my record) I’m taking the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

The Pick: Chiefs

**CINCINNATI 9 Baltimore **
Cincy handled Baltimore easily on the road last time, and now Kyle Boller is back and averaging 4.5 yards per completion. I just not sure I can talk myself into picking against the Bengals here, even though they tend to play down to the competition. That 9 point spread is certainly a big one against a still capable defense, but it’s also a team that only beat Tommy Maddox by 3 points. That’s good enough for me.

The Pick: Bungles

**Carolina 4 BUFFALO **
So, do the Bills have enough defense to stifle the Panther running attack the way the Bears did? Can they execute the game plan that was laid out last week? That’s the question here. There’s no doubting the similarities between the Bills and Bears. Good running attack, iffy QB, and solid defense. The only caveat is that the Bills are just a notch worst than the Bears in every respect. There’s no doubt that they will approach the game exactly the same way, the question is if that’ll be enough. Personally, I think John Fox is too good a coach and too good a motivator to allow it. I still think the Panthers are flawed, but they are good enough to win this one. Probably wouldn’t stake money on it, though.

The Pick: Panthers

**TAMPA BAY 3 Chicago **
Well, Shibb, here we go. The SDMB matchup of the week. The laissez-faire Chris Simms staring down Urlacher and Co on 3rd and 8, how’s that idea make you feel? So far this season the Bucs have been in deep trouble in any game in which the running game gets stuffed (that freakish Redskins game excepting), and I can’t imagine any scenario in which they break 60 yards rushing. In many ways you could make a similar argument about the Bucs D, but then you’re reminded that they’ve been giving up over 30 points a game over their last 3. Thomas Jones and the Bears running game has yet to be stopped by anyone, thanks to an impressive offensive line. The Bears have had quite a bit of trouble historically in the new sombrero, and have yet to go on the road and win a game against a better than average opponent. After last week they certain won’t be lacking for confidence, and I think they solidify their status this week. Incidentally, they are making the Bears a frigging 3 point dog? Really? How did the Bucs fare against the Panthers at home this season, by the way?

The Pick: Bears

San Diego 3 WASHINGTON
This game is a no brainer. The Redskins have been crumbling over last few weeks and every game is a must win for the Chargers. Gates is a game time decision, and I’m guessing he’s going toplay based on reports. Nothing like a little turkey and gravy to coax along a gimpy foot. If Gates doesn’t play this game could come into question, as long as he’s suiting up you can count on a decisive win.

The Pick: Chargers

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I like the same two teams you do today, for much the same reasons. It’s entirely possible that both picks will be wrong, of course, but it’s hard to pick against the Broncos especially the way that they’ve been playing, and Detroit always plays well on Turkey Day (which is, I imagine, why the spread is so low - even in some of their rather worse years, they have been decent today).

I should also note that the Broncos-Cowboys game will be the first game I’ve ever seen in HD, thanks to my parents’ new TV and over-the-air CBS HD actually coming in here (pretty middle of nowhere). Off to football and the feast!

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I think the Detroit game is going to be a push, so i’ll hold off on that bet. Otherwise i’ll take Dallas in the late game.

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A few more to whet your appetite before I run out to dinner.

**MINNESOTA 4 Cleveland **
So is Minnesota getting on track or are the Vikes just reaping the benefits of a flimsy schedule and a lot of breaks? I’m guessing it’s somewhere in the middle as usual, but there’s little doubt that they’ve curtailed many of their mistakes. However, it’s a serious concern that their offense has hardly scored any touchdown during this resurgent run. The Browns however seem to be getting stronger, and they aren’t doing it with smoke and mirrors, their names are Droughns and Edwards as a matter of fact. It’s a pretty good 1-2 punch, and reports have Edwards taking an even larger role in the offense. Even though it’s a road game, I like the match up in favor of the Brownies……though we’ll se how this betting Dilfer on the road thing pans out. Sometimes I never learn.

The Pick: Browns

**TENNESSEE 8 San Francisco **
This one stumps me. The Titans have consistently confounded me and done exactly the opposite of what I expect week in and week out. They had a nice showing last week against the Jags, but have been losing consistently to bad teams. They are at home as well. I like the way that the Niners have been playing, and even though they haven’t been finding ways to win, they have been competitive against a pretty tough schedule. I think the Titans are likely to win, but 8 points feels like too many.

The Pick: Niners

**St. Louis 3 HOUSTON **
The Rams are a total clusterfuck. It’s pretty impressive really, how schizophrenic they can be. It’s almost like the disease that afflicted the Saints for so many years has been contracted to their sister city to the north. I’m inclined to pick against them in just about every situation these days, but the power of the Texans suckitude has to make you wonder. I’m going to make a leap of faith here, and take the hapless Texans over the depleted and embarrassing Rams.

The Pick: Texans

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Here’s a few I pulled together before heading out to the bar. I’ll return later to finish up with the remaining 3 games, though those picks could be somewhat flaky with my buzz ;).

**Jacksonville 3½ ARIZONA **
Jacksonville is hard to feel confident in with all the close games they’ve played. They have a strange knack for staying close to both good teams and bad teams, and either one could bite them in the butt. Arizona is showing signs of life and they have the advantage of getting the Jags at home. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Jags get spanked by one of these tomato cans they have left on their schedule and this week is as likely as any. Still the Jags are on top of the pass defense rankings, and that counters the Cards only strength.

The Pick: Jags

**OAKLAND 7 Miami **
Miami statistically dominates this matchup in nearly every category. Well, except for two very important ones. Record on the road and the Gus Frerotte factor. Both Sapp and Seau are done for the year, so we’ll call the teams even on the overrated, washed up veteran scale. I’ve learned my lesson regarding Gus this season, and while I don’t like what the Raiders are doing I won’t be getting burned by stacking my chips on the shoulders of the Miami QB situation again.

The Pick: Raiders

**SEATTLE 4½ NY Giants **
This is going to be a very interesting game and could help clarify who’s for real and who isn’t in the NFC. The Giants defense is pretty darn good and will be a good test to see how well the impressive Seattle ground game stacks up. For how much hype the Eli led Giants offense has gotten, the Seahawks passing game is much better statistically. There’s not much concrete to go on here, but I’m going to guess that the Seahawks are going to control the ball just enough to put away a Giants team that traveled cross country.

The Pick: Seahawks

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**PHILADELPHIA 4½ Green Bay **
I dig Mike McMahon and I think he’s a pretty damn reasonable QB. He can beat teams. Philly just lost Tra Thomas for the week which could be key. A big part of me feels like the Eagles are done and the Pack aren’t quite as crappy as their record indicates. At some point Favre is going to avoid those back breaking INTs for one game and beat someone. The real question is this a likely time for it to happen? Philly’s defense is still capable and they have a solid home field advantage, especially with the Pack coming off a MNF game. Both teams are playing for pride and not much else. My guts tells me the Pack are breaking through, logic tells me that the eagles have this one. I’m going to side with the Pack and predict a Philly 3 point win….how’s that for hedging?

The Pick: Packers

**New Orleans 1½ NY JETS **
Wow, the two suckiest of the sucky. I really don’t know who’s the weakest link here. The Saints have some talent but have been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. Their WR crew and QB have been pretty horrific this year and the defense is flat out limp. Then again the Jets are totally useless and they have Doug Jolley listed as their 3rd QB. The Jets have been getting blown out lately while the Saints have at least been competitive. Really, these teams are so inconsistent and shaky that recent performance is about all you can judge off.

The Pick: Saints

Monday, Nov 28th
INDIANAPOLIS 9 Pittsburgh
This should be a hell of a game. It’s a shame that Big Ben is just coming off his injury and could be rusty, if he were in top form this could have been a must-see event. As it is it’s still pretty compelling and will have major ramifications for the AFC playoffs. In last weeks thread I spent some time predicting the Steelers slide and the Bengals claiming the AFC North title, so it’s pretty obvious that I’d be flip-flopping if I were to pick against the Colts here. I am gonna stick with that, but that 9 point spread is much bigger than I would have anticipated. I think the Colts will win this game, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say the felt like a little big closer than a 10 point game. The Steelers defense is no slouch, and it’s better than Indy’s in my book. Still, Peyton and company have been in something of a zone lately and in the dome I don’t think they’ll be stopped. If Big Ben were 100% and had a game to get his bearings I’d be more liable to argue for them to be able to keep it close, but not here.

The Pick: Colts

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Let me get my picks in quickly, before gametime. Last week i went 9-7 and 0-1 for Thanksgiving day.

ATS:
CINCINNATI defeats Baltimore fv 9
BUFFALO defeats Carolina ud 4
TAMPA BAY defeats Chicago fv 3
Cleveland defeats MINNESOTA ud 4
New Englanddefeats KANSAS CITY ud 3
WASHINGTON defeats San Diego ud 3
TENNESSEE defeats San Francisco fv 8
St Louis defeats HOUSTON fv 3
Jacksonville defeats ARIZONA
Miami defeats OAKLAND
PHILADELPHIA defeats Green Bay
SEATTLE defeats NY Giants
NY JETS defeats New Orleans
Pittsburgh defeats INDIANAPOLIS

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Ugh, totally missed the early games, and the late games are about to start. So skipping the early games and a long list of picks, my only picks this week are the ones with action. I’ll bring this week’s deal up to date after the Steelers game. My apologies for bumping last week’s thread.

Late Games
Risk 55 for 50 on the Giants.

Sunday Night
Risk 30 for 25 on the Saints

Monday Night
Risk 55 for 50 on the Steelers

Info for me to create my wrapup:

(opening / current)
1:00
CHIEFS 3 1/2 3 (49 1/2) Patriots
BENGALS 9 9 (37) Ravens
Panthers 4 3 1/2 (36 1/2) BILLS
BUCCANEERS 3 3 (32) Bears
Chargers 3 3 (44) REDSKINS
VIKINGS 4 1/2 4 (39 1/2) Browns
TITANS 7 1/2 8 1/2 (42 1/2) 49ers
Rams 4 3 1/2 (45) TEXANS

4:05
Jaguars 4 1/2 3 (41 1/2) CARDINALS
RAIDERS 7 7 (42) Dolphins

4:15
SEAHAWKS 5 1/2 4 1/2 (47 1/2) Giants
EAGLES 4 4 1/2 (41) Packers

8:30
JETS 2 1/2 1 (37) Saints

9:00
COLTS 7 8 1/2 (47) Steelers

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So Shibb, how ya like me now? It was a pretty good game, all things considered and that missed FG had me sweating for a bit. I was more than a little pissed the Bears squandered that TD opportunity to end the half which would have really given us an edge. Still, you have to love Alex Brown. The guy singlehandedly dominated that game. I think it’s time for Ron Turner to take the shackles off Orton and throw the ball downfield. Even if it ends in disappointment, you need to prove you’re willing to try and hopefully discover something that’ll work when you need it. As for the Bucs, we I think the acquitted themselves fairly well. They have issues on special teams, but the offense held it’s own under that attack and the Bears can run on anyone so that’s no incrimination. This game combined with a second shaky Panther performance raises the Bucs odds to win the division INHO.