NFL Predictions - Week 11 (Gazoo Appreciation Week)

[Omniscient]

Incidentally it’s the 38th anniversary or the Heidi game today, thought that was a fun little tidbit courtesy of PTI.

I managed another 7-7 week ATS, many thanks to Mr. McNabb for proving me right. It was a disappointing 5-7-2 vs the O/U and a crappy 2-3 in the pick 5. The not so grand totals are 66-74-3 mark ATS, 52-53-3 on the O/U and lastly 26-28-1.

Here’s the Linky-Linky

NFL Predictions - Week 1 (the Reckoning)
NFL Predictions - Week 2 (the Reconciliation)
NFL Predictions - Week 3 (Clarity)
NFL Predictions - Week 4 (Resilience)
NFL Predictions - Week 5 (Bargaining)
NFL Predictions - Week 6 (Where Fred Smoot is Planning My Weekend)
NFL Predictions - Week 7 (Zygi Wilf and his four-letter words)
NFL Predictions - Week 8 (You can put it on the board! YES!)
NFL Predictions - Week 9 (The Ides of Autumn)
NFL Predictions - Week 10 (Over The Precipice)

Put Your 2005 NFL Predictions Here
NFL Division Rankings '05
Third Annual Steelers March to the Super Bowl
All Things NFC East 2005

He Hate Me Keeper League Mid-Season Draft Review 2006
Yahoo fantasy football signup now open…
SDMB Fantasy Football draft recap (Prolate Spheroids)
Lets move on since it’s already late.

Sunday, Nov. 20
**Carolina 2½ CHICAGO 34 **
Believe it or not, this is the biggest game of the week. I can tell you that in August this wasn’t exactly a red hot ticket. Also, how much fun was it to watch that game last week in the wind? It was like watching the PGA guys shooting triple bogeys at the US Open. Probably not what you’d call great football, but it certainly was entertaining. That 108-yd TD certainly was a nice cherry on top too, but Vasher’s most important performance of the season will happen this week when he’s covering Steve Smith. There’s a lot to like about this match up for old school football fans. Both teams run the ball, and play D. I’m inclined to pick the Panthers simply by the fact that Delhomme is better than Orton. But I pause to consider that it’s likely going to be below freezing this weekend for the warm climate Panthers, and the Bears running game is more consistent than the Panthers against stout competition. The Panthers were held to 77 yards rushing against the Bucs, a very similar D. The dinged up Thomas Jones is due back, and Peterson earned his stripes last week to spell him. I figure, screw it I’m going straight up homer pick.

The Pick: Bears, Over

**Jacksonville 4 TENNESSEE 38½ **
Nice effort by the Jags last week against a struggling Baltimore team, and I expect to see more of the same here giving them their seventh win. :eek: Should be a good week to have Leftwich and Taylor (or Jones if he goes again) in your lineups.

The Pick: Jags, Under

**Indianapolis 5 CINCINNATI 46½ **
Here’s the second biggest game of the week, and is about as different from the first as can be. Nothing old school here, two high powered offenses with big name QBs and lots of weapons. I was watching the sports talk shows and everyone is commenting on CJ’s “guarantee” for this week and everyone was debating if it’s a big deal or not. Not a single one of these dumbasses actually understood what he was doing. It was called sarcasm, he’s been talked about constantly, people have been talking about his guarantees and baiting him into one, and just as everyone was waiting for him to go all Broadway Joe, he deked them by saying “I’m not gonna be stopped”. Folks, you just got punked, and they didn’t even get it. As much as I dig the Bengals, I just don’t think they’re ready yet. They still have one step too take, and they aren’t going to do it this week. Edge will dominate the time of possession and the Bengals don’t quite have the horses on D to stop Peyton on third down. The key to the Bengals success defensively is getting turnovers, specifically INTs, and that’s something you won’t see from the Colts.

The Pick: Colts, Over

**NEW ENGLAND 9 New Orleans 46 **
Things are just getting sad for the Saints. The upside is that they are probably the new front runner in the Leinart/Bush lottery. If you were wondering I think Bush is the real deal, and will be a super star. But I think Leinart is a little more of a commodity. Ironically, the Saints are probably the only team likely to be drafting in the top 5 who are expected to draft a QB. The Pats are going to right the ship and get it done here, and that 9 point spread is pretty generous. Supposedly the Saints retooled some things during the bye, and I’d say that going against a Belichick team in Foxboro isn’t quite the ideal trial scenario. Their only hope is that the Pats keep all the tricks to themselves and play it close to the vest out of confidence, giving just enough to win. Not likely.

The Pick: Pats, Under

**ST. LOUIS 9½ Arizona 49 **
I never pick these teams’ games right, but are you honestly telling me that the Pats-Saints matchup is closer than this one? I do predict that the Kurt Warner experience in his not-so-triumphant return will be an ugly one. Joe Vitt at least seems to have the Rams playing more consistently, and in the dome that should be good enough.

The Pick: Rams, Under

**ATLANTA 6 Tampa Bay 39 **
I think the Falcons were exposed last week. The Packers are an awful team and they handled the Falcons on both sides of the ball. Chris Simms also had a bit of a breakout game last week too, so it’s easy to see how this game could tilt in the Falcons favor. Compounding matters is the fact that so far the Bucs have been Vick’s nemesis. Then again it’s a frustrating truth that the Bucs simply have not run the ball since Carnell’s injury earlier this season. Everything in me wants to pick the Bucs to get it done, I think the Falcons are paper tigers, but I cannot convince myself that Simms/Carnell can get it done in the dome against that D.

The Pick: Falcons (barely), Under

**WASHINGTON 6 Oakland 43 **
What the hell was that game last week against the Bucs? Both teams had iffy offenses and great Ds and they combine for 71 points? Um, ok. I think things will be rectified by the Redskin D going into this week, especially with the Raiders flying cross country into DC. That Oakland running game is going to get stonewalled and Portis should run wild. Nuff said.

The Pick: Redskins, Under

**DALLAS 8 Detroit 38½ **
The Lions didn’t exactly dominate the Cardinals at home and they are supposed to hang with the Cowboys in Dallas? Methinks not.

The Pick: Cowboys, Under

**NY GIANTS 7½ Philadelphia 40½ **
I’ll tell you right now, Mike McMahon doesn’t suck. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Eagle resurgence this second half with him at the helm. The real issue with that team was the lack of a running game, which highlighted McNabb’s ineptness in the clutch. When they were running the ball, he was able to make plays when he could, instead of when he had to. I’m not saying McMahon can do that, as long as Reid ignores the running game they will struggle. One factor that was curious was after that play last week people piled on McNabb (as much as they do for him anyways, if it’d have been Jake Plummer they’d have to invent a new word to describe the sportswriter chaos) for the crap throw, which it certainly was, people glossed over the horseshit play calling that series which led to it. Who calls that play, and more importantly who gets into a situation where you need a long third down pass after running no time off the clock? On the other side of the coin, the Giants really laid an egg last week, at home no less. At the end of the day, the Giants are the better team but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this be a close game.

The Pick: Giants, Over

**CLEVELAND 2 Miami 34½ **
You know, I have no idea with this one. I think Miami has potential and is the better team, but they have sucked on the road and here they are headed to a chilly Cleveland. Still the Browns got pushed around by a Steeler team without a capable QB. I know the rules state that I should never bet on Frerotte on the road…ever, but the Browns D is so bad I’ll defy the football gods.

The Pick: Dolphins, Over

**Seattle 12½ SAN FRANCISCO 43 **
I have a hard-on for my FFL team this week, Alexander is going big this week. Still, I think the 49ers are playing well enough to cover that monster spread at home. Especially that defense. It just feels like a 24-14 game to me.

The Pick: Niners, Under

**SAN DIEGO 10½ Buffalo 42½ **
The Chargers are rested, coming off a bye and the Bills are winless on the road. Still, they’ve only been blown out once this season and Losman managed to play a solid game last week. Still, it is and always will be the LT show and as long as Marty doesn’t fuck it up, they’ll take care of business.

The Pick: Chargers, Under

**DENVER 13½ NY Jets 40½ **
You know the line……

The Pick: Broncos, Under

**Pittsburgh N/L BALTIMORE N/L **
Tune in later, same Bat-time same Bat-channel.

**Kansas City 7 HOUSTON 44 **
You know, here’s where things get interesting. The Chiefs really screwed the poodle last week and could perhaps be deflated by the loss of Priest. The Texans have been game at home against superior competition and with Andre Johnson in the mix they are formidable on offense. With this being one of their rare primetime showing, expect them to treat it as if it were a playoff game. They’ve simply got to play with nothing to lose. The Chiefs could be watching their season slip away as the Chargers and Broncos continue to surge with no sign of their traditional late season swoons. I expect Domanick Davis to finally have a good game versus that flaky KC D.

The Pick: Texans, Over

Monday, Nov. 21
GREEN BAY 5 Minnesota 44½
Wow, this puppy sure turned out to be a pig of a game, didn’t it? What you saw last week from the Packers was an aberration, but then again so was the showing by the Vikes. Frankly, it’s a race to see who can steal defeat from the jaws of victory here. I honestly don’t know who to pick. I like Favre and Gado in Lambeau under the lights, but I can’t help the sneaking suspicion that the Vikings simply have more talent. I’m pretty comfortable saying that neither team will be lacking for intensity in this rivalry game, but for both these squads that tends to just lead to aggressive mistakes. Lacking any good argument for either I’m simply going to anticipate a final telegenic moment for Favre, even though 5 points is too many.

The Pick: Packers, Over

[Omniscient]

You guys are killing me.

[soulmurk]

Don’t take it personally, I think people just don’t bother replying with a “Yeah”. Just assume everyone is agreeing with you by omission

To prove my point, I’ll go on the record with:

@Omniscient

**ATLANTA 6 Tampa Bay 39 **
I think the Falcons were exposed last week. The Packers are an awful team and they handled the Falcons on both sides of the ball. Chris Simms also had a bit of a breakout game last week too, so it’s easy to see how this game could tilt in the Falcons favor. Compounding matters is the fact that so far the Bucs have been Vick’s nemesis. Then again it’s a frustrating truth that the Bucs simply have not run the ball since Carnell’s injury earlier this season. Everything in me wants to pick the Bucs to get it done, I think the Falcons are paper tigers, but I cannot convince myself that Simms/Carnell can get it done in the dome against that D.

The Pick: Falcons (barely), Under

Shouldn’t be as close as you think. The Falcons aren’t as good as their record, but the Bucs deserve their record even less. The Bucs are ranked 2nd in total defense, but Portis ran all over them last week. The Falcs may not be a Superbowl team, or even one that can go very far in the playoffs, but they’ll put up some rushing yards.

It’ll probably come down to turnovers, and with the Falcs likely drilling on it all this past week after their turnover-palooza last week, and the pressure they’ll get on Simms, who is, despite his game last week, still in vast need of improvement. The Falcs should take it pretty easily.

**WASHINGTON 6 Oakland 43 **
What the hell was that game last week against the Bucs? Both teams had iffy offenses and great Ds and they combine for 71 points? Um, ok. I think things will be rectified by the Redskin D going into this week, especially with the Raiders flying cross country into DC. That Oakland running game is going to get stonewalled and Portis should run wild. Nuff said.

The Pick: Redskins, Under

[/quote]

Agree here, but just want to say that Washington has been playing quite the opposite lately; great on offense and with a defense that is MIA. If Brunnell stops fumbling, they’ll be dangerous.

**Seattle 12½ SAN FRANCISCO 43 **
I have a hard-on for my FFL team this week, Alexander is going big this week. Still, I think the 49ers are playing well enough to cover that monster spread at home. Especially that defense. It just feels like a 24-14 game to me.

The Pick: Niners, Under

12.5 seems a bit much, but SF is a team that gave up 50+ a few weeks ago to a team whose offense isn’t as deep as Seattles. Besides, Seattle is trying to make a statement this year, and though this isn’t exactly a key divisional matchup, it’s still a division game so you know they’re going in with guns blazing. And home or not, I see SF abandoning the run early to play catch-up and not going anywhere against Seattle’s underestimated D.

**Kansas City 7 HOUSTON 44 **
You know, here’s where things get interesting. The Chiefs really screwed the poodle last week and could perhaps be deflated by the loss of Priest. The Texans have been game at home against superior competition and with Andre Johnson in the mix they are formidable on offense. With this being one of their rare primetime showing, expect them to treat it as if it were a playoff game. They’ve simply got to play with nothing to lose. The Chiefs could be watching their season slip away as the Chargers and Broncos continue to surge with no sign of their traditional late season swoons. I expect Domanick Davis to finally have a good game versus that flaky KC D.

The Pick: Texans, Over

I started out saying you were out of your mind on this one, but now that I think about your points, you may be on to something. This game scares me more than it did 10 minutes ago, but I still think KC will cover.

[Omniscient]

@soulmurk

Don’t take it personally, I think people just don’t bother replying with a “Yeah”. Just assume everyone is agreeing with you by omission

Based on my record so far, if this were true I’d have a serious concern for the NFL fans on this board. Frankly I think higher of them than to agree with my sorry ass this season ;).

12.5 seems a bit much, but SF is a team that gave up 50+ a few weeks ago to a team whose offense isn’t as deep as Seattles.

True they got lit up by Washington, but that was a road game. They’ve been a different team at home and have a formidable defense. If they find the endzone once they will cover this one. I love what Seattle is doing, but they are one dimensional. Their receivers are still no better than my park district flag football league’s.

[EllisDee]

@Omniscient

You guys are killing me.

I’m out on Fridays, and often don’t fire up the computers on Saturdays. I like it much better when these threads opened on Thursday nights, but beggars can’t be choosers.

After the Rangers rewind, I’ll offer my picks. Amazingly, I think my record might be better than yours. That’s just…sad.

[EllisDee]

Okay, in a departure of my norm, before I make my picks I’ll discuss yours first.

@Omniscient

Sunday, Nov. 20
**Carolina 2½ CHICAGO 34 **
Believe it or not, this is the biggest game of the week. I can tell you that in August this wasn’t exactly a red hot ticket. Also, how much fun was it to watch that game last week in the wind? It was like watching the PGA guys shooting triple bogeys at the US Open. Probably not what you’d call great football, but it certainly was entertaining. That 108-yd TD certainly was a nice cherry on top too, but Vasher’s most important performance of the season will happen this week when he’s covering Steve Smith. There’s a lot to like about this match up for old school football fans. Both teams run the ball, and play D. I’m inclined to pick the Panthers simply by the fact that Delhomme is better than Orton. But I pause to consider that it’s likely going to be below freezing this weekend for the warm climate Panthers, and the Bears running game is more consistent than the Panthers against stout competition. The Panthers were held to 77 yards rushing against the Bucs, a very similar D. The dinged up Thomas Jones is due back, and Peterson earned his stripes last week to spell him. I figure, screw it I’m going straight up homer pick.

That game was awesome last week. As my BIL proudly informed me, Vasher is a Longhorn. Speaking of which, he thinks Vince Young is going to the Jets, but I told him he’s crazy…Reggie Bush all the way. This must be the game where the Panthers get exposed. I was a week early in predicting the Giants embarassing loss, and I think I was also a week early predicting the Panthers get exposed. Bears have it all: running, defense, defense, and running. Some may say there are other facets to the game of football, but those people also wear earplugs to keep their brains from dribbling down their necks. This is an excellent game in that it could preview a divisional round playoff game. Bears all the way, winning outright.

**Jacksonville 4 TENNESSEE 38½ **
Nice effort by the Jags last week against a struggling Baltimore team, and I expect to see more of the same here giving them their seventh win. :eek: Should be a good week to have Leftwich and Taylor (or Jones if he goes again) in your lineups.

I am so off the Jaguars bandwagon. I just don’t think they’re very good, and I’m rapidly losing faith in Leftwich, who is a guy I used to think would be good. Unfortunately, the Titans are terrible, so the Jags will likely win this newbie-division matchup.

**Indianapolis 5 CINCINNATI 46½ **
Here’s the second biggest game of the week, and is about as different from the first as can be. Nothing old school here, two high powered offenses with big name QBs and lots of weapons. I was watching the sports talk shows and everyone is commenting on CJ’s “guarantee” for this week and everyone was debating if it’s a big deal or not. Not a single one of these dumbasses actually understood what he was doing. It was called sarcasm, he’s been talked about constantly, people have been talking about his guarantees and baiting him into one, and just as everyone was waiting for him to go all Broadway Joe, he deked them by saying “I’m not gonna be stopped”. Folks, you just got punked, and they didn’t even get it. As much as I dig the Bengals, I just don’t think they’re ready yet. They still have one step too take, and they aren’t going to do it this week. Edge will dominate the time of possession and the Bengals don’t quite have the horses on D to stop Peyton on third down. The key to the Bengals success defensively is getting turnovers, specifically INTs, and that’s something you won’t see from the Colts.

I dunno, didn’t Peyton throw four picks last week? YES HE DID, SHUT UP, LA LA LA I CAN’T HEAR YOU!!! There’s no way the Colts go undefeated, and this is as good a game as any for them to lose. That’s why the spread is so low. So low, in fact, that ya gotta go with the Colts.

**NEW ENGLAND 9 New Orleans 46 **
Things are just getting sad for the Saints. The upside is that they are probably the new front runner in the Leinart/Bush lottery. If you were wondering I think Bush is the real deal, and will be a super star. But I think Leinart is a little more of a commodity. Ironically, the Saints are probably the only team likely to be drafting in the top 5 who are expected to draft a QB. The Pats are going to right the ship and get it done here, and that 9 point spread is pretty generous. Supposedly the Saints retooled some things during the bye, and I’d say that going against a Belichick team in Foxboro isn’t quite the ideal trial scenario. Their only hope is that the Pats keep all the tricks to themselves and play it close to the vest out of confidence, giving just enough to win. Not likely.

Leinart is just another Chad Pennington, whereas Reggie Bush plays like a monster. Talking about the draft is a sign of a team that is done, and the Saints are clearly that. Despite the Pats losing at home recently, I think they’ll use and abuse the Saints.

God damn, how long does it take to write these?! I’m getting carpal tunnel over here, so I’m skipping down to games of interest.

**ST. LOUIS 9½ Arizona 49 **
I never pick these teams’ games right, but are you honestly telling me that the Pats-Saints matchup is closer than this one? I do predict that the Kurt Warner experience in his not-so-triumphant return will be an ugly one. Joe Vitt at least seems to have the Rams playing more consistently, and in the dome that should be good enough.

**Seattle 12½ SAN FRANCISCO 43 **
I have a hard-on for my FFL team this week, Alexander is going big this week. Still, I think the 49ers are playing well enough to cover that monster spread at home. Especially that defense. It just feels like a 24-14 game to me.

I’m predicting high scoring, close games for both of these NFC West matchups. I know they’ve had some blowouts this season, but last season they were all high octane, competitive affairs, and I’m thinking that this is a week they return to that form.

**ATLANTA 6 Tampa Bay 39 **
I think the Falcons were exposed last week. The Packers are an awful team and they handled the Falcons on both sides of the ball. Chris Simms also had a bit of a breakout game last week too, so it’s easy to see how this game could tilt in the Falcons favor. Compounding matters is the fact that so far the Bucs have been Vick’s nemesis. Then again it’s a frustrating truth that the Bucs simply have not run the ball since Carnell’s injury earlier this season. Everything in me wants to pick the Bucs to get it done, I think the Falcons are paper tigers, but I cannot convince myself that Simms/Carnell can get it done in the dome against that D.

Come to the darkside. The Falcons do suck, unlike the Bucs who are merely inconsistent.

**WASHINGTON 6 Oakland 43 **
What the hell was that game last week against the Bucs? Both teams had iffy offenses and great Ds and they combine for 71 points? Um, ok. I think things will be rectified by the Redskin D going into this week, especially with the Raiders flying cross country into DC. That Oakland running game is going to get stonewalled and Portis should run wild. Nuff said.

That cross country thing only applies going from East to West, not the other way around. Something about the time change. I think the Raiders are going to go medieval on the Redskins.

**NY GIANTS 7½ Philadelphia 40½ **
I’ll tell you right now, Mike McMahon doesn’t suck. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Eagle resurgence this second half with him at the helm. The real issue with that team was the lack of a running game, which highlighted McNabb’s ineptness in the clutch. When they were running the ball, he was able to make plays when he could, instead of when he had to. I’m not saying McMahon can do that, as long as Reid ignores the running game they will struggle. One factor that was curious was after that play last week people piled on McNabb (as much as they do for him anyways, if it’d have been Jake Plummer they’d have to invent a new word to describe the sportswriter chaos) for the crap throw, which it certainly was, people glossed over the horseshit play calling that series which led to it. Who calls that play, and more importantly who gets into a situation where you need a long third down pass after running no time off the clock? On the other side of the coin, the Giants really laid an egg last week, at home no less. At the end of the day, the Giants are the better team but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this be a close game.

The Giants have a habit of making backup QBs look like superstars, and even worse is their habit of then signing those backups. Who’s behind Eli? Tim Hasselback, the Redskins backup who lit the Giants up last year. Who was the backup last preseason? Kurt Kittner, who was the Falcons backup who lit up the Giants the year before. I know Brad Johnson didn’t exactly play well, but he did lead the game-winning drive against the Giants in his backup role last week. I don’t like anything about this game, especially not the spread. Eagles all the way.

**SAN DIEGO 10½ Buffalo 42½ **
The Chargers are rested, coming off a bye and the Bills are winless on the road. Still, they’ve only been blown out once this season and Losman managed to play a solid game last week. Still, it is and always will be the LT show and as long as Marty doesn’t fuck it up, they’ll take care of business.

Didn’t the Chargers find themselves facing a Jets 1st & goal for the win a couple weeks back? The Chargers are nothing more than a 5-4 team. Don’t be mesmorized by Tomlinson; Marty’s incompetance balances Ladanian’s playmaking ability.

P.S: Go Rangers!

[EllisDee]

1:00pm…**Panthers…2½…BEARS…34…**Bears and the over.
1:00pm…**Jaguars…4…TITANS…38½…**Jags and the under.
1:00pm…**PATRIOTS…9…Saints…46…**Pats and the under.
1:00pm…**RAMS…9½…Cards…49…**Cards and the over, both easily.
1:00pm…**FALCONS…6…Bucs…39…**Bucs unseat the Falcons, over.
1:00pm…**REDSKINS…6…Raiders…43…**Raiders and the over.
1:00pm…**COWBOYS…8…Lions…38½…**Lions and the over.
1:00pm…**GIANTS…7½…Eagles…40½…**Eagles and the over.
1:00pm…**BROWNS…2…Dolphins…34½…**Dolphins and the under.
1:00pm…**Steelers…3½…RAVENS…34…**Steelers and the under.

4:05pm…**Seahawks…12½…49ERS…43…**49ers and the over.
4:15pm…**CHARGERS…10½…Bills…42½…**Billies and the over.
4:15pm…**BRONCOS…13½…Jets…40½…**Jets and the over.
4:15pm…**Colts…5…BENGALS…46½…**Colts and the under.

8:30pm…**Chiefs…7…TEXANS…44…**Chiefs and the under.
9:00pm…**PACKERS…5…Vikings…44½…**Packers and the over.

Spread Picker Picks
8 Eagles
7 Jets
6 Ravens
6 Titans
5 49ers
2 Bengals
2 Bucs
2 Dolphins
2 Saints
2 Vikings
1 Bears
1 Bills
1 Cards
1 Cowboys

Burn me once, and I’ll give it another shot. Teaser’s a-plenty this week again, dammit!

Early Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Eagles getting 15½, Lions getting 16, Cards getting 17½
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Bucs getting 14, Raiders getting 14, Patriots giving 1

Late Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Jets getting 21½, 49ers getting 20½, Bills getting 18½
If not down 110, risk 30 for 125 on the Jets, 49ers & Bills

Sunday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Chiefs & the Under

Monday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Packers & the Over

[post=6798716]Standing[/post]
Last week: 12-14, -170
Season: 91-97-2, -720 (-80 per week)
Spread Picker: 40-34-2; Best Bets: 8-2

[soulmurk]

@Ellis Dee

I dunno, didn’t Peyton throw four picks last week? YES HE DID, SHUT UP, LA LA LA I CAN’T HEAR YOU!!! There’s no way the Colts go undefeated, and this is as good a game as any for them to lose.

I’ve got Pittsburgh to have the '72 Dolphins popping the champagne bottles a week from Monday. I think the Colts will handle Cinci well enough to have most of the bandwagon jumpers hopping off and pointing to this and the game vs. the Steelers as reasons the Bengals aren’t ready. Yet.
I’m breaking my personal superstitions by publicly prognosticating this much about football during the season, but superstitions are silly; my team ain’t going anywhere this year; and I can’t make it much worse for myself in the Pick 'Em leagues.

[asterion]

Just a question, since I don’t bet on sports (mostly thanks to watching Ellis Dee continously lose theoretical money this season). Anyway, for the Thanksgiving games, when will the lines be out and when will you post them, since I guess that’s technically Week 12? (Woot! 2 Broncos games to watch in less than a week! But dinner will start at 2 and the game at 2:15. What to do?)

[MysteryFellow63427]

@Omniscient

**WASHINGTON 6 Oakland 43 **
What the hell was that game last week against the Bucs? Both teams had iffy offenses and great Ds and they combine for 71 points?

I can’t analyze the Bucs, but the Redskins D has quietly deteriorated since going gangbusters in the first few games. That lacking defense was the real reason they lost Sunday’s game, and not the silly two point conversion I used as the basis for a pit thread. I’m not sure what the problem is, but I’m deeply concerned.

If we can fix the defense, and keep the offense executing at its current level, we could go deep into the playoffs. I remain optimistic.

In the meantime, Omni, your delectable pregame analysis has whetted my appetite for a day of NFL football that, sadly, I cannot afford to watch. Arrgh. Tomorrow afternoon my nose is going to be buried in books, so drink for me, ok?

[MysteryFellow63427]

@neuroman

so drink for me, ok?

That should have been “drink one *for[i/] me.” However, you are still welcome to do some general all-purpose drinking in my honor.

[Omniscient]

There will be plenty of drinking, after I get myself a few hours of sleep.

First, lets tie up a loose end.

**Pittsburgh 3½ BALTIMORE 33 **
The Steelers are planning on playing Maddox, and you can assume a fair amount of gimmick plays with Randle El. I don’t have any strong motivation here, but my gut is telling that this could be one of those head scratching upsets. The Steelers are on the road with a crappy QB, and they are in Baltimore for a full fledged rivalry game. Take the points.

The Pick: Ravens, Under

Now for the OMNI picks: Denver, Miami, Dallas, Jacksonville, New England

[asterion]

I don’t get to see this game (I get stuck with Raiders-Skins, Lions-Cowboys, and Colts-Bengals) but I’m going to say that if Maddox has a bad first half Randle El will become the QB.

[Monocracy]

Last Week: 6-6
Season: 25-31-2

This Week ATS:
Arizona defeats ST LOIUS ud 9.5
CHICAGO defeats Carolina ud 2.5
Detroit defeats DALLAS ud 8
TENNESSEE defeats Jacksonville ud 4
Miami defeats CLEVELAND fv 2
New Orleans defeats NEW ENGLAND ud 9
WASHINGTON defeats Oakland fv 6
Philadelphia defeats NY GIANTS ud 7.5
BALTIMORE defeats Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay defeats ATLANTA ud 6
SAN FRANCISCO defeats Seattle ud 12.5
SAN DIEGO defeats Buffalo fv 10.5
CINCINNATI defeats Indianapolis ud 5
NY Jets defeats DENVER ud 13.5
Kansas City defeats HOUSTON fv 7
GREEN BAY defeats Minnesota fv 5

[Kiros]

I’m getting into a bad habit of staying up until the wee hours on Saturday night, and barely getting up in time to get a hasty pick 5 in before I make sure that none of my fantasy guys have decided they aren’t going to play this week.

Going to make a few silly picks this week that I think might pan out:

Dallas, Washington, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Denver

The afternoon games that I can watch this week are Pitt-Ravens, Indy-Cinci, and Seahawks-49ers. Hopefully at least the first two have some redeeming value to them.

A big thanks to the local Fox network again this week. With the Redskins playing on CBS, they decided that they would be better off showing infomercials and/or crappy movies in the Sunday 1pm slot, instead of whatever the national game is. Assuming there isn’t yet another NFL contractual problem with this (and there probably is, in which case, just shift the blame)… thanks muchly, you bastards, 'cause I’m sure NO ONE wants to see Panthers-Bears.

[ShibbOleth]

Sorry, Omni, I didn’t even see this thread on Friday and didn’t even open my computer up on Saturday or Sunday. Sunday afternoon we had a picnic for my son’s baseball team. We did keep track of the Bucs game (and somewhat the Fins) on a couple of small portable tvs. The only downside was they decide to give out trophies to the kids during the last five minutes or so of the game. One kid thought he was really appreciated when the Falcons missed the long field goal attempt at the end and all the Dads whooped it up.

[Omniscient]

@Omniscient

Sunday, Nov. 20
**Carolina 2½ CHICAGO 34 **
Believe it or not, this is the biggest game of the week. I can tell you that in August this wasn’t exactly a red hot ticket. Also, how much fun was it to watch that game last week in the wind? It was like watching the PGA guys shooting triple bogeys at the US Open. Probably not what you’d call great football, but it certainly was entertaining. That 108-yd TD certainly was a nice cherry on top too, but Vasher’s most important performance of the season will happen this week when he’s covering Steve Smith. There’s a lot to like about this match up for old school football fans. Both teams run the ball, and play D. I’m inclined to pick the Panthers simply by the fact that Delhomme is better than Orton. But I pause to consider that it’s likely going to be below freezing this weekend for the warm climate Panthers, and the Bears running game is more consistent than the Panthers against stout competition. The Panthers were held to 77 yards rushing against the Bucs, a very similar D. The dinged up Thomas Jones is due back, and Peterson earned his stripes last week to spell him. I figure, screw it I’m going straight up homer pick.

The Pick: Bears, Over

**The Result: Bears 13 - Panthers 3

Damn, that was a hell of a game by Vasher, he’s making a case for team MVP. I’m loving the chip the Bears seem to be playing with. Incidentally, perhaps this Panther hype was a bit misplaced. They are good, but it comes as no surprise to anyone that their running game was stifled this week, I think you can expect the same in a playof game. Oh, and did you see that Gage catch?**

**Jacksonville 4 TENNESSEE 38½ **
Nice effort by the Jags last week against a struggling Baltimore team, and I expect to see more of the same here giving them their seventh win. :eek: Should be a good week to have Leftwich and Taylor (or Jones if he goes again) in your lineups.

The Pick: Jags, Under

**The Result: Jags 31 - Titans 28

With the exception of the Indy game, the Jags remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .222. I think we’ve found the team that beats the Pats in the playoffs. Still, they should be giving up 28 to the Titans.**

**Indianapolis 5 CINCINNATI 46½ **
Here’s the second biggest game of the week, and is about as different from the first as can be. Nothing old school here, two high powered offenses with big name QBs and lots of weapons. I was watching the sports talk shows and everyone is commenting on CJ’s “guarantee” for this week and everyone was debating if it’s a big deal or not. Not a single one of these dumbasses actually understood what he was doing. It was called sarcasm, he’s been talked about constantly, people have been talking about his guarantees and baiting him into one, and just as everyone was waiting for him to go all Broadway Joe, he deked them by saying “I’m not gonna be stopped”. Folks, you just got punked, and they didn’t even get it. As much as I dig the Bengals, I just don’t think they’re ready yet. They still have one step too take, and they aren’t going to do it this week. Edge will dominate the time of possession and the Bengals don’t quite have the horses on D to stop Peyton on third down. The key to the Bengals success defensively is getting turnovers, specifically INTs, and that’s something you won’t see from the Colts.

The Pick: Colts, Over

**The Result: Colts 45 - Bengals 37

Whew, how much fun was that game to watch, and not just because you had a half dozen fantasy guys on the field. Both teams are for real and I can’t wait to see the Playoff rematch. The big games really delivered this week. The Clats had better not forget about Edge come playoff time, though. You gotta run the ball with a lead, simple fact. **

**NEW ENGLAND 9 New Orleans 46 **
Things are just getting sad for the Saints. The upside is that they are probably the new front runner in the Leinart/Bush lottery. If you were wondering I think Bush is the real deal, and will be a super star. But I think Leinart is a little more of a commodity. Ironically, the Saints are probably the only team likely to be drafting in the top 5 who are expected to draft a QB. The Pats are going to right the ship and get it done here, and that 9 point spread is pretty generous. Supposedly the Saints retooled some things during the bye, and I’d say that going against a Belichick team in Foxboro isn’t quite the ideal trial scenario. Their only hope is that the Pats keep all the tricks to themselves and play it close to the vest out of confidence, giving just enough to win. Not likely.

The Pick: Pats, Under

**The Result: Pats 24 - Saints 17

Grrr, these spreads are killing me. Nice to see an Illini making the decisive play since that about the closest thing to good football we experienced this year.**

**ST. LOUIS 9½ Arizona 49 **
I never pick these teams’ games right, but are you honestly telling me that the Pats-Saints matchup is closer than this one? I do predict that the Kurt Warner experience in his not-so-triumphant return will be an ugly one. Joe Vitt at least seems to have the Rams playing more consistently, and in the dome that should be good enough.

The Pick: Rams, Under

**The Result: Cards 38 - Rams 28

I didn’t see much of this game, and am not sure what to make of it. Anyone else catch it? Incidentally Larry Fitz is a difference maker, time to start considering that. **

**ATLANTA 6 Tampa Bay 39 **
I think the Falcons were exposed last week. The Packers are an awful team and they handled the Falcons on both sides of the ball. Chris Simms also had a bit of a breakout game last week too, so it’s easy to see how this game could tilt in the Falcons favor. Compounding matters is the fact that so far the Bucs have been Vick’s nemesis. Then again it’s a frustrating truth that the Bucs simply have not run the ball since Carnell’s injury earlier this season. Everything in me wants to pick the Bucs to get it done, I think the Falcons are paper tigers, but I cannot convince myself that Simms/Carnell can get it done in the dome against that D.

The Pick: Falcons (barely), Under

**The Result: Bucs 30 - Falcons 27

Always go with the gut, always go with the gut, always go with the gut…**

**WASHINGTON 6 Oakland 43 **
What the hell was that game last week against the Bucs? Both teams had iffy offenses and great Ds and they combine for 71 points? Um, ok. I think things will be rectified by the Redskin D going into this week, especially with the Raiders flying cross country into DC. That Oakland running game is going to get stonewalled and Portis should run wild. Nuff said.

The Pick: Redskins, Under

**The Result: Raiders 16 - Redskins 13

Another game I didn’t get much opportunity to watch, but I think I’m going to stop giving the Redskins so much credit. And to think I actually considered starting Brunell over Palmer this week. I think we’re starting to see that the much hyped NFC East is a bit overrated. **

**DALLAS 8 Detroit 38½ **
The Lions didn’t exactly dominate the Cardinals at home and they are supposed to hang with the Cowboys in Dallas? Methinks not.

The Pick: Cowboys, Under

**The Result: Cowboys 20 - Detroit 7

Here’s a quote from ESPN.com

Detroit was penalized 17 times for 129 yards and nine first downs. Each of Dallas’ four scoring drives included a failed third down that became a first down thanks to a penalty against the Lions.

“Hey, we appreciate that,” Cowboys safety Roy Williams said.

Nuff said. **

**NY GIANTS 7½ Philadelphia 40½ **
I’ll tell you right now, Mike McMahon doesn’t suck. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Eagle resurgence this second half with him at the helm. The real issue with that team was the lack of a running game, which highlighted McNabb’s ineptness in the clutch. When they were running the ball, he was able to make plays when he could, instead of when he had to. I’m not saying McMahon can do that, as long as Reid ignores the running game they will struggle. One factor that was curious was after that play last week people piled on McNabb (as much as they do for him anyways, if it’d have been Jake Plummer they’d have to invent a new word to describe the sportswriter chaos) for the crap throw, which it certainly was, people glossed over the horseshit play calling that series which led to it. Who calls that play, and more importantly who gets into a situation where you need a long third down pass after running no time off the clock? On the other side of the coin, the Giants really laid an egg last week, at home no less. At the end of the day, the Giants are the better team but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this be a close game.

The Pick: Giants, Over

**The Result: Giants 27 - Eagles 17

McNabb’s having surgery, no big shock. You can see that McMahon is a very capable back up and will probably keep the Eagles competitive for the rest of the year. Still, that offensive line is offensive. A nice effort by Eli, but the Giants really need to find some consistency if they are to be taken seriously as contenders. **

**CLEVELAND 2 Miami 34½ **
You know, I have no idea with this one. I think Miami has potential and is the better team, but they have sucked on the road and here they are headed to a chilly Cleveland. Still the Browns got pushed around by a Steeler team without a capable QB. I know the rules state that I should never bet on Frerotte on the road…ever, but the Browns D is so bad I’ll defy the football gods.

The Pick: Dolphins, Over

**The Result: Browns 22 - Dolphins 0

Do not defy the gambling gods. Some rules should never be broken. It will be so. **

**Seattle 12½ SAN FRANCISCO 43 **
I have a hard-on for my FFL team this week, Alexander is going big this week. Still, I think the 49ers are playing well enough to cover that monster spread at home. Especially that defense. It just feels like a 24-14 game to me.

The Pick: Niners, Under

**The Result: Seahawks 27 - Niners 25

Another stellar one handed grab by another Illini, Brandon Llyod…which of course was rendered moot. The guy makes the hard ones look easy and the easy ones look hard. Alexander has 19 TDs in 10 games, ouch. **

**SAN DIEGO 10½ Buffalo 42½ **
The Chargers are rested, coming off a bye and the Bills are winless on the road. Still, they’ve only been blown out once this season and Losman managed to play a solid game last week. Still, it is and always will be the LT show and as long as Marty doesn’t fuck it up, they’ll take care of business.

The Pick: Chargers, Under

**The Result: Chargers 48 - Bills 10

Has it become cliche to slurp the powder blue unis yet? Eh, who cares, I love ‘em. Here’s to hoping that Gates’ injury isn’t serious. My adopted favorite AFC team can’t get it done without him, if you see that slo-mo replay of how the injury happened it’s easy to see that this could be a serious one. Even if he comes back, it could develop into a Waltonesque cronic thing. Lets hope for the best.**

**DENVER 13½ NY Jets 40½ **
You know the line……

The Pick: Broncos, Under

**The Result: Broncos 27 - Jets 0

Heh heh. Mike Anderson single handedly won me my $$$ league this week, even though I was going against the combo of the Bears D and Steve Smith. It’s about time. I can’t quite figure out why I loathe Herm Edwards so much, but I do. **

**Pittsburgh 3½ BALTIMORE 33 **
The Steelers are planning on playing Maddox, and you can assume a fair amount of gimmick plays with Randle El. I don’t have any strong motivation here, but my gut is telling that this could be one of those head scratching upsets. The Steelers are on the road with a crappy QB, and they are in Baltimore for a full fledged rivalry game. Take the points.

The Pick: Ravens, Under

**The Result: Ravens 16 - Steelers 13

Excellent. Interestingly enough I actually saw alot of disagreement on the spread for this game. I even saw one which had the Ravens as a 3 point fave. It was all over the place between Friday and Sunday. Needless to say my “upset special” wasn’t quite as bold a statement as one might hope. Still, I’ll take the credit.**

**Kansas City 7 HOUSTON 44 **
You know, here’s where things get interesting. The Chiefs really screwed the poodle last week and could perhaps be deflated by the loss of Priest. The Texans have been game at home against superior competition and with Andre Johnson in the mix they are formidable on offense. With this being one of their rare primetime showing, expect them to treat it as if it were a playoff game. They’ve simply got to play with nothing to lose. The Chiefs could be watching their season slip away as the Chargers and Broncos continue to surge with no sign of their traditional late season swoons. I expect Domanick Davis to finally have a good game versus that flaky KC D.

The Pick: Texans, Over

**The Result: Chiefs 45 - Texans 17

Um, where the hell was that offense last week against the Bills? This is another game that I didn’t pay much attention to, so I won’t pretend to have much interesting to add. Still, I think that this team is going to come up a bit short by the end of the season without Preist Holmes. **

So, that makes me 8-7 ATS and 8-7 vs the O/U. I see a trend here. In any case, it was a atypical week from a gamblers point of view. For the first time in a while you saw quite a few underdogs covering but not winning, so far this season underdogs who covered also won outright at something like a 70% clip. The upshot here was that while I only went a little better than .500 here I won the SDMB cofidence pool. Weird.

[Kiros]

Good weekend to watch football, between USC-Fresno on Saturday and the full slate on Sunday. Even Seahawks-49ers worked out in the end. Hell, there was even a really nice touchdown catch by a Ravens receiver (Hymes) in THAT game, one of the last things we could possibly expect.

Not sure how we can (collectively - I’ve read it a bunch of places today) get all excited over Seattle as a NFC “favorite” when they could only beat the 49ers by a failed two-point conversion. That conference is so wide-open now, it’s not even funny. It’s almost enough to make you think the Bears could actually go somewhere with a couple good breaks

A couple things re: your comments:

@Omniscient

With the exception of the Indy game, the Jags remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .222. I think we’ve found the team that beats the Pats in the playoffs. Still, they should be giving up 28 to the Titans.

It’s kind of funny that you’d say that, because the Jags are one of only two AFC playoff hopefuls that I’d feel pretty good about playing in the first round (the other being Pitt, who we match up well against even with the depleted defense, and have shown repeatedly that we can beat when we have to). A first-round game in Gilette against the Jags seems to me like it would be exactly the type of game that we’ve been winning this year - the other team puts up some points, we put up more, and they don’t quite have what it takes to pull it out in the end. The other ‘good’ teams in the AFC are much more problematic, IMO, given the current state of the Pats.

@Omniscient

Whew, how much fun was that game to watch, and not just because you had a half dozen fantasy guys on the field. Both teams are for real and I can’t wait to see the Playoff rematch. The big games really delivered this week. The Clats had better not forget about Edge come playoff time, though. You gotta run the ball with a lead, simple fact.

As long as by “Both teams are for real”, you mean, “Both offenses are about as good as we think they are, and rumors of improved defenses in either case are, at best, supported primarily by evidence against really crappy teams”. The only thing that kept the score on this one from going even higher was that Palmer made a couple (not many, but a couple) bad throws (that were not particularly forced by the Indy D - they got virtually no pressure on him). If the Bengals score more, Peyton throws more, and goodness knows the Bengals were NOT stopping the Colts offense when it mattered (see: the first five drives). That was an extremely entertaining game, but a very one-dimensional one as well.

If the Bengals have to go to Denver or Pitt (one of which seems likely at this point), they will get beaten down (assuming Roethlisberger is healthy). I think both of those teams as well as San Diego match up pretty well with Indy, though not necessarily well enough to beat them in the dome - Indy is obviously the odds-on favorite at this point, though I think it would be rather hilarious to see them go 16-0 and then lose in the AFC playoffs.

[Omniscient]

@Kiros

Not sure how we can (collectively - I’ve read it a bunch of places today) get all excited over Seattle as a NFC “favorite” when they could only beat the 49ers by a failed two-point conversion. That conference is so wide-open now, it’s not even funny. It’s almost enough to make you think the Bears could actually go somewhere with a couple good breaks

True to a degree, but I think you’re selling the 49ers short. They’ve been playing pretty well over the last few weeks, and looking at their schedule I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win 4 of their last 6 games. In any case, that Seattle win might not look so much like a red flag as it does now. The 49ers have some playmakers on D, and if the QB situation settles down just a bit they could be competitive.

It’s kind of funny that you’d say that, because the Jags are one of only two AFC playoff hopefuls that I’d feel pretty good about playing in the first round (the other being Pitt, who we match up well against even with the depleted defense, and have shown repeatedly that we can beat when we have to). A first-round game in Gilette against the Jags seems to me like it would be exactly the type of game that we’ve been winning this year - the other team puts up some points, we put up more, and they don’t quite have what it takes to pull it out in the end. The other ‘good’ teams in the AFC are much more problematic, IMO, given the current state of the Pats.

I’ve been looking at this and I see it working out like this:

Colts, Broncos hold on to the First Round byes. I just don’t see either team falling flat at the end of the season excluding a major injury. Denver plays a few tough games, but they should maintain their Divisional edge over the Chargers.

I think the Bengals will win their division, they’ve got a little easier schedule to close out the season and it’s not exactly a no-brainer that the Steelers will immediately return to form when Roethlisberger is back.

I expect a 3 team logjam at 11-5 with the Steelers, Chargers and Jags fighting for the two spots. I don’t know exactly what the tie-break would be there as the Jags beat the Steelers, the Steelers beat the Chargers. The Jags would have the best conference record, and the Chargers and Steelers would probably tie. It seems likely that the Chargers would be the odd team out, and the Jags would match up against the Pats and he Steelers would rematch the Bengals. If I’m wrong, the next most likely scenario has either the loser of a Bengals/Steelers tie breaker up against the Pats. Based on schedule, tie breakers, and current record the Jags are by far the most likely opponent.

I agree they are also the least threatening team to the Pats, but that’s not so much due to matchups, instead they simply are the worst of the likely playoff teams.

As long as by “Both teams are for real”, you mean, “Both offenses are about as good as we think they are, and rumors of improved defenses in either case are, at best, supported primarily by evidence against really crappy teams”. The only thing that kept the score on this one from going even higher was that Palmer made a couple (not many, but a couple) bad throws (that were not particularly forced by the Indy D - they got virtually no pressure on him). If the Bengals score more, Peyton throws more, and goodness knows the Bengals were NOT stopping the Colts offense when it mattered (see: the first five drives). That was an extremely entertaining game, but a very one-dimensional one as well.

I think this is a bogus argument. Every team in the NFL, by design, is flawed in one way or another. While these defenses aren’t as good as their previous standings indicated, both will still be in the top half of the league at the end of the season. Their offenses are flat out stellar. I find it amusing that you bash their defenses being a Pats fan, BTW. In the NFC, just about every team is seriously flawed in one facet of the game. The Bears can’t pass, the Panthers have issues versus the run on both sides of the ball. The Falcons can’t pass consistently, or stop the run. The Bucs have a myriad of issues offensively and defensively. The entire NFC East can’t be counted on week to week, with the Cowboys being the only one who’s shown the ability to be the least bit balanced in every facet.

Going to the AFC, the Chargers secondary is very vulnerable, the Broncos passing game is nothing to be impressed with. The Steelers have major issues running the ball, and are most comparable to the Panthers. The Jags are a team which we both agree is flawed, but ironically enough they are winning by being balanced and good, but not great, in any one phase.

The point is this, yes the Colts and Bengals Ds aren’t quite as good as some people proclaimed, but getting lit up by those offenses doesn’t mean you suck. What is means is that they have good defenses and great offenses. They are two of maybe 6 teams in the league that can claim to be great in one phase and good in the other.

[Omniscient]

@Omniscient

I agree they are also the least threatening team to the Pats, but that’s not so much due to matchups, instead they simply are the worst of the likely playoff teams.

One more thing I forgot to add. While the Jags are the weakest of the probable AFC playoff teams the Pats could play, they are much much better than the Pats. They will lose this game, and for all the crap the Bears and Seahawks have gotten about the quality of their divisional opponents, I introduce you to the AFC East your worst division in football. The 2005 Pats, indeed the tallest midget. They couldn’t beat any of the playoff squads from either division as things stand right now. Unless they put together a 2nd half resurgence, there’s no reason to expect the Pats to win a single playoff game.