Goddamnit Stuffy, you beat me by 5 minutes.
Here’s my picks, I’ll chime in a little later with some commentary and my OMNI picks.
Sundays Games
New England 3-4 (Away: 1-2) @ Buffalo 5-3 (Home: 2-2) 1:00 PM ET CBS (Bills by 2½)
Two ways to look at this, Buffalo is hot and the Pats are ice cold. The other is that the Pats are due to win, and Buffalo is due to lose. I think both are half right, the Pats are due to get back on track and realize that they can’t coast, but the Bills are flat out hot. The Bills are better on offense, and both teams struggle against the run. The most interesting think to watch is going to be the Bledsoe/Belichick game. Belichick should definately know Drews weaknesses and find ways to confuse him, but I know Drew spent plenty of time studying the Pats defensive weaknesses too. Not to mention that Bledsoe will be really fired up, and I think the Pats will be just a little scared that they have to face this guy twice a season. You gotta love the way this worked out, Drew has been nothing but class and I really believe that there’s no bad blood between any one on these two teams. It’ll be emotional and exciting, but there seems to be no malice. Oh, and what the hell were the Pats thinking trading him in the division, you telling me that the Bears wouldn’t have been the smarter choice even if it meant you got less? I think this game will be high scoring enough to make that 2½ points seem like nothing, and I’m gonna go with the home team to win it. Bills win and cover, but damn its gonna be hard to stake money against the Pats after last season.
Pittsburgh 4-3 (Away: 2-2) @ Cleveland 4-4 (Home: 2-2) 1:00 PM ET CBS (Steelworkers by 3)
Pitt is an entirely different team with Maddox back there. I don’t think he’ll be able to win the big games, but these divisional rivalry games are a different story. Run some, pass some, play defense and win. It won’t be easy to do in Cleveland, but there’s nothing that really says they can’t. If a couple of guys get real hot on Cleveland, especially Couch and a reciever or two they could definately win this game, but I’m going to have to pick the favorite. Pittsburgh wins and covers, but that 3 points is ugly and my money won’t be on the line.
Tennessee 3-4 (Away: 1-2) @ Indianapolis 4-3 (Home: 2-1) 1:00 PM ET CBS (Colts by 3)
The Colts have screwed me twice in two weeks. Here’s why. You bring in a defensive guy like Dungy and expect him to improve the defense and leave the offense alone. However in the real world, coaches can affect offenses by their presence, but defenses require talent and depth. In that vein, Dungy has helped the defense a little through philosophy and talent evaluation, but completely muzzled the offense in the same way he did in Tampa. Maybe he’s not so great. I know its not exactly revolutionary, but I didn’t put it together until seeing them in primetime. Tennessee is an enigma, and they have been frustrating to predict. Ditto here, where their offense could click and boost them over the top, or their defense could fold and get them blown out…maybe both. I’m going to give the edge to the Titans, because perhaps for the first time they are actually more healthy than the opponent, and Edge is a huge question mark. Titans win and cover.
Cincinnati 0-7 (Away: 0-3) @ Houston 2-5 (Home: 1-2) 1:00 PM ET CBS (Texans by 3)
Damn its gotta suck to be a Bengals fan…wait, I guess that means there’d have to be some. OK, it’d suck to be a Bengals player. I don’t really believe that they are that bad, certainly not as bad as Bengals teams of the last decade, and this is and expansion team they are facing. However, the Texans have a pretty stiff defense that can keep them in it. Dillon isn’t likely to go too wild, but he’ll have a solid day. Carr may actually not get sacked for a change, that should be nice. There’s not a whole lot to go on here, so its gonna be a bit of a stab in the dark. Texans win, but the Bengals cover.
Baltimore 3-4 (Away: 1-2) @ Atlanta 4-3 (Home: 2-2) 1:00 PM ET CBS (Falcons by 7½)
Jesus, 7½?!?! Granted its possible, but thats awfully damn generous for a pretty solid defensive team against a Rookie QB, even if his name is Vick. The Ravens are going to be able to make the Falcons one dimentional, and I think thats going to cause Vick some trouble. The Ravens D seems to have lost a little confidence without Lewis, but they’ll get it back eventually I think. I don’t quite think the Ravens have enough play-makers to win this one on the road, but I expect them to keep it on the ground and make it close. Falcons win, Ravens cover.
Philadelphia 5-2 (Away: 1-2) @ Chicago 2-5 (Home: 1-2) 1:00 PM ET FOX (Philly by 6½)
I’ve been dreadng this game…no not becuase the Eagles are so good, but because it’s probably a game where I can’t possibly justify picking my Bears. What the hell am I to do? Urlacher is one of only a couple players in the league who can effectively spy a guy like McNabb, he did it against Vick successfully. The downside however is that the Bears have really struggled against the run, and Philly is really clicking there. Urlacher will probably see a little too much flack to really smother McNabb entirely, and Staley will have a decent day. They’ll be somewhat one dimentional, but that dimention will probably be enough to keep up with the Bears flimsy offense, Miller’s back…but thats hardly a deal breaker. Thats an offense facing a dominating Philly defense. Sadly, Philly wins and covers.
Dallas 3-5 (Away: 1-3) @ Detroit 2-5 (Home: 2-1) 1:00 PM ET FOX (Detroit by 3)
Dallas is gonna let down after Emmitt’s big day, if they give the ball to Hambrick 20+ times, they’ll win. The Boys won’t be doing that, and it’ll cost them against a climbing Lions squad. Hutchinson is a improvement at QB, but he’s several steps behind Harrington. The Lions don’t match up deensively too well, but I think at home it’ll be enough. I think this game will be close, but not sure how close. Lions win, and cover barely.
Minnesota 2-5 (Away: 0-3) @ Tampa Bay 6-2 (Home: 2-1) 1:00 PM ET FOX (Bucs by 7)
Can’t imagine that the Bucs will fold in this one, but you saw what happened last week in a similarly one-sided matchup with a fat spread. Both Johnsons are hurt, Rob hurt his ass somehow…I’m sure there’s a few jokes in that locker room. Odds are that Shaun King will start. The Vikings seem to be getting things together somewhat offensively, but the Bucs D is going to be nasty. The Bucs will win again, but its going to come down to mistakes as to who covers. The Bucs D could create havoc and make it a blow out, the Vikings D could victimize a bad Bucs line and beat up whoever is at QB. Bucs win, Vikings cover.
**Washington 3-4 (Away: 1-2) @ Seattle 2-5 (Home: 1-2) 4:15 PM ET FOX (Seattle by 2½)
Tough break for the Redskins to be without Davis, they’d probably win this one if he were in there. I don’t expect Alexander to blow up even though the Redskins defense has been suspect. As it is both teams will struggle offensively due to injuries, specifically to Dilfer and Jackson in Seattle. Defensively the Redskins are stronger than the Seahawks and Watson had a pretty solid performance last week. If Davis were playing I’d be real confident, but even still I’m going to have to pick the upset on the road. It won’t take long for the fans to get all over Hasselbeck if he struggles.
St. Louis 2-5 (Away: 0-3) @ Arizona 4-3 (Home: 2-1) 4:15 PM ET FOX (St Louis by 3)
Lots of 3 and 7 points spreads again, bastards. the fact that this one is in AZ should help since the Rams seems to be clicking again at home to a degree. I don’t see too many scenarios where the Cards can win this one unless Plummer goes absolutely nuts or theres a big injury to Faulk or Bulger. The Cards always play real hard and have been able to put points on the board and prevent too many big plays, but they don’t match up talentwise against many teams. It’ll be especially apparent this week. Rams win and cover.
NY Jets 2-5 (Away: 1-2) @ San Diego 6-1 (Home: 3-0) 4:05 PM ET CBS (Chargers by 7½)
Do you think Tomlinson is flat out salivating coming into this game? Especially after having a bye week? Marty has this team running with authority and it’ll continue with vigor this weekend, everything else is just gravy. Brees is going to have another solid day agianst a weak Jets defense, but they won’t even need it once LT gets over. This is the shortest injury report I’ve seen in this match up, thats about all I have to say positively for the Jets. Chargers win big, covering easily. Bet it.
San Francisco 5-2 (Away: 2-1) @ Oakland 4-3 (Home: 2-1) 4:15 PM ET FOX (Oakland by 3)
Tough game to predict, Oakland hasn’t done anything consistently lately, most improtant of which is the poor results in the Red zone. San Fran’s defense has been hot and cold, and if it lets down too often this week the Raiders will get back on track and roll. Its a good home field in Oakland, and I don’t think you’ll see TO doing anything stupid after a score. I’m not sure why, maybe its just the way trends have been reversing in the NFL, but I expect Oakland to come out of their shell against this team. Raiders win and barely cover, but don’t count on it.
Jacksonville 3-4 (Away: 1-2) @ NY Giants 3-4 (Home: 1-2) 8:30 PM ET ESPN (G’ints by 3)
It wasn’t long ago the Jags beat the Eagles, right? I can’t really see that the Giants offense has much chance of doing anything this week. Do you think the Jags players are getting fed up with Coughlin yet, they have certainly been playing like it. There’s more question marks than answers in this match up, and can anyone actually believe that Fred Taylor is still healthy? Most suprising turn of events this season. Just counting the weapons you have to pick the Jags in this one, especially getting points. I’m not exactly brimming with confidence because the Giants defense is sound, but I’ll go with balance in this one. Jags get the upset.
Monday Night Football
Miami 5-2 (Away: 2-1) @ Green Bay 6-1 (Home: 3-0) 9:00 PM ET ABC (Pack by 4½)
The spread has grown to 5½ in some places, so I guess the Pack is getting the lions share of the action. Can;t say it suprises me. Favre will be playing and the guy always seems to show up in primetime, especially considering the luck of that bye week. In contrast to that Chargers-Jets game, this might be the longest injury report, at least the longest since the Bears-Packers MNF tilt. Too bad too cause if both these teams were at full strength it’d be alot of fun to watch. Unless Lucas does something really unexpected, I don’t think an all-Ricky gameplan can beat the Pack. Packers win and cover.
Bye Week: Denver, Kansas City, New Orleans, Carolina
