NFL Week 10

The Game Room
1

We’ve got our first Thursday night game tonight.

I mentioned this in the week 9 thread, but NFL Rewind is running a free trial until Sunday. It lets you watch all the games from the last 2 seasons after they’ve aired. The quality is pretty good and they index the plays so you can watch them pretty quickly.

The NFL website also sort of half-ass streams the thursday games. They’ll spend half of the time on blowhardy analysis (actually, some of it is good occasionally when they break down specific plays) and half the time watching the actual game. Cutting around is annoying but it’s better than not being able to see the game at all.

Thursday night:
Bal +1 @ ATL

Sunday 1pm:
Detroit -3 @ BUF
Minnesota -1 @ CHI
NYJ -3 @ CLE
CIN +7 @ IND
TEN -1 @ MIA
CAR +6.5 @ TB
HOU +2 @ JAX

Sunday 4pm:
KC -1 @ DEN
DAL +14 @ NYG
Seattle +3 @ ARI
St. Louis +6 @ SF

Sunday night:
New England +4.5 @ PIT

Monday Night:
PHI -3 @ WAS

2

So, could I shorty tonight’s game at like midnight, do you think?

3

DAL +14 @ NYG

I expect the **Giants **to win and fear this being a trap game. But 14 points is a little extreme I think.

4

Not sure - just signed up with the free trial yesterday, so I don’t know how fast they get them up there.

5

Tom Brady practiced today, so NE getting 4.5 at Pitt seems ripe for the picking. They won’t let what happened in Cleveland last week happen again. I’m very interested to see if the Browns might just be for real.

6

That Baltimore/Atlanta game tonight is extremely interesting. Baltimore is probably the better team, but Atlanta is a much tougher team at home and I find myself thinking they can pull it out. This game looks even enough to me that trying to dig around to find an edge for either team is a waste of time. Ultimately, I think this one comes down to something as simple as Atlanta is at home and it’s gotta be really tough to play a Thursday night game on the road This will be Baltimore’s third game in fifteen days. I can see it going either way (so naturally I’ll be assigning this game a low confidence score for Pick 'Em) but I’ll take Atlanta.

7

This is dicey. New England has no defense to speak of so it would seem like they are ripe for exploitation, but the Steelers have a decimated offensive line which wasn’t very strong to begin with AND the Steelers’ defense can be passed on.

I know who I would pick, but I’m biased. Objectively, this game is a toss-up. It depends entirely upon who shows up. If both teams do it’s going to be one hell of a game.

8

The Jets/Browns game is gonna be a hoot. Not only the return of Braylon Edwards but also the battle of the Ryan twins.

All that, and we’re on a roll!

9

20-28 for 160 in the first half. That’s an interesting game plan.

10

I checked last night around 1-2am eastern and the game wasn’t up, but when I checked again just now it was. Not sure what time they posted it, but somewhere in that window.

11

I think the Browns/Jets matchup will probably be the most interesting of the week. Lots of storylines - are the Browns for real? Rex Ryan vs Rob Ryan, Braylon vs a stadium full of people who want to take a dump on his head. And of course Mangini vs his former team.

I don’t think the Browns match up as well against the Jets as they did against the Saints and Patriots. The latter two teams were so passy heavy that it allowed the Browns to come up with unusual game plans to stop them. There were a lot of weird coverages and formations used on defense - and it worked well, both Brees and Brady were confused all game long. The Browns frequently lined up in the “um, where am I supposed to be?” formation where 1-2 linemen and a bunch of linebackers sort of stumbled around switching places on the line of scrimmage to disguise where the pressure was coming from. If they try that on the Jets, they’re just going to audible to the run and get 7 yards. The Jets are more balanced on offense than the other teams were. If you take a lot of the trickery out of the defense, the jets are just flat out better on D.

OTOH, Colt McCoy made some pretty awesome third down plays against the Pats, but their pass defense sucks and other than a few plays, he’s not much of a passer yet. The Jets can key in on the Browns run game and they’re setup to slow it down.

I do think the Browns will hamper the Jets’ rushing game, they have an underrated rushing defense - but it’s at the cost of a reduction of the weird aggressive playcalling against the previous two teams - they’ll have to play it straight on running downs.

Overall, I’d give the Jets the slight edge due to their balance on offense. Their passing game will be the key factor in this match. But the Browns want it. They’re playing a brutal, physical, aggressive game. The coaches are willing to try anything to surprise the other team. It really has the makings of a really interesting matchup.

(Now watch, it’ll be a boring blowout for someone)

12

Browns’ D has only given up 1 rushing TD this season, which sorta explains to me why Wright has been getting chewed up. They’ve been leaving him in single coverage with no safety help deep and counting on him to hold his own (which he hasn’t exactly succeeded at). But they’re a very “bend, but don’t break” kinda defense, and they rotate backups in liberally. I’ve been pretty pleased with them. The Jets may have a better D, but the Browns are no slouches. They’ve had a pretty brutal schedule and they still only give up under 20 points a game.

The Jets’ balance on offense is probably going to be the difference, though. I had no idea Dustin Keller, of all people, was their leading receiver. They really spread it around.

Maybe Cribbs is ready to take one back.

13

The funniest advantage the Browns have is that the Jets elite corners are useless against them - we don’t have a receiver worth throwing to anyway. Having our WRs completely taken out of the game barely affects the game plan.

14

I hadn’t thought of it that way. But I think McCoy has been working with Masaquoi extra in practice, judging by some of the tight passes against the Pats, so maybe we can expect some production from that position.

BTW, I know McCoy doesn’t have the strongest arm, but how refreshing is it to have a QB who can complete the short and intermediate routes and doesn’t sail bullets 5 yards over everyone’s head (cough Derek Anderson cough)? Even the long passes he floated against the Patriots weren’t bad throws because he was throwing to big TEs who could go up and grab them.

15

I thought McCoy looked like the real deal, and was psyched for both you and an old high school buddy of mine who is a long-suffering Browns fan. I always like seeing good young QBs in the league, and this season has been great for that. Obviously McCoy hasn’t sewn up the starting job for the next decade quite yet, but I like what I’ve seen so far.

16

I can do a writeup here, I have some time to kill. I’ll rank the games in order of interest (from least to most) and give a brief rundown.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay
I think this week is a barren wasteland. Too many “meh” games and, thus, too few interesting ones. This is the least interesting of the bunch. Tampa is a fairly strong team, comfortably in the middle of the pack in yards gained and allowed (except for allowed on the ground, where they rank 30th), with an emerging QB. Carolina is… not those things. Their only hope would be to exploit Tampa’s poor run defense, unfortunately they’ll be without their top two backs for the game. And with Clausen set to start… this line probably can’t go high enough. If you had to choose between Carolina and Dallas, who wins? Loser is the worst team in the league. Carolina, right? I find myself surprised that Buffalo has a very real shot of ending up 0-16 and they won’t be the worst team in the league. Or even potentially second worst.

Seattle @ Arizona
The only way this game gets less interesting is if Seattle was at home. As it is, at this game should be close. Seattle is awful on the road and Arizona is good at home, but Seattle is getting Hasselbeck back and Arizona is awful at everything. There is very little going on here. Moving on.

**Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
**A lot of people expected Cincy to be good this season. Not great, and probably not in contention for even the playoffs, but an average team. It took people, and Vegas, weeks to realize that Palmer is almost a punchline at QB and that the team lacks… something. Their passing offense has gotten it together statistically, but Palmer’s stats are deceptive He hasn’t been good until the game has been lost. Unfortunately, the way to beat the Colts is to run it down their throat, not try to pass. And facing Peyton coming home after a tough loss is a good way to get your teeth kicked in. It’ll be somewhat interesting to see if Cincy tries to establish the run against a weak run D. Somewhat interesting, because they’ll probably be forced to abandon the run by the second quarter anyway.

Kansas City @ Denver
This game probably comes down to who scores first. You can throw on Kansas City, and Denver can throw, but if KC takes an early lead and can start pounding the ball against the worst run D in the league, it’s over. If Denver can jump out and force KC to throw, they’ll pull off the upset. Does Denver still have that tough home crowd anymore?

St. Louis @ San Francisco
Interesting because St. Louis could be pretty good, though they’ve been pretty bad on the road this season and they’re a totally different team at home. It’s been a nice year for the bottom feeders of 2009 rebounding into solid mediocrity. St. Louis is tougher against the run than probably everyone realizes so San Francisco is probably going to have to pass to win. Is Troy Smith good enough to take advantage? Can the offense even function that way? If St. Louis wanted to steal the West, and they are well on their way, they need this game. A home game against Atlanta looms next week before three straight road games (and again, they aren’t good on the road). They don’t even get to enjoy coming back home as they get to host KC. This team, right now, could win the West and make the playoffs. And they could just as easily go into week 16 4-10.

Minnesota @ Chicago
Bonus points here for being an interesting divisional game, but mostly I’m interested here because Chicago has no business being 5-3. Their slide towards the middle begins this week I think. Chicago gives up surprisingly few yards on the ground, but if anyone can run them over, it’s Peterson. He feasts on Chicago.

Tennessee @ Miami
Tennessee gets Moss for the first time… unfortunately his debut is spoiled by Collins being the likely starter. Tennessee has gotten three of their fives wins on the road and they face a team that has yet to win at home, despite being 4-4. That sounds damning, but I wonder how important it actually is. What’s certainly not important is the wildcat offense, which seems to be a declining fad. What is important is Tennessee is fourth in the league in sacks and going up against a QB who hasn’t played in a year.

Houston @ Jacksonville
Shootout! Okay, it might not seem like one at first glance, but it will be. Or, it better be if Jacksonville cares about winning. Houston is the friendliest defense in the league to opposing QBs, and we saw what happened for Garrard when he goes against a bad pass defense. And we all know Houston has the pieces to throw effectively. Jacksonville lacks pieces in their defensive secondary. Well, they do have some pieces of shit, anyway.

Detroit @ Buffalo
Detroit at Buffalo is the 5th most interesting game, really? Well, if only because this is probably Buffalo’s only realistic shot at a win for the rest of the season. They’re surprisingly scrappy though, but even more surprising is that such a scrappy team can never manage to steal a win. How does that happen? Don’t these scrappy teams generally steal a few before they become considered scrappy? That’s the fourth time I’ve written scrappy. Fifth. I have made this considerably less interesting.

Finally, some good stuff.

Philadelphia @ Washington
Everyone probably automatically assumes the Eagles win this game easily, and it certainly seems as if they would… but McNabb couldn’t be more motivated for this game. Could not. Against his former team and the first game after his inexplicable benching against Detroit? Shit. Luckily, Washington has the second easiest pass defense in the league, and since Philly is not quarterbacked by Jay Cutler, they should move the ball effectively. Here’s a fun fact, did you know MIchael Vick leads the entire league in QB Rating? No, that’s not a typo. Michael Vick. You know who’s second? Vince Young! Uhh…

Dallas @ New York Giants
New York faced off against Dallas, knocked out their starting QB, and still only won by 6. New York is widely considered the best team in the NFC and they have yet to beat anyone of consequence. Literally no one. Their wins are Carolina, Chicago (the worst team with a record at or above .500?), Houston, Detroit, Dallas, and Seattle. Combined record? 17-31! You know what else? They, and all their fans, have heard about this a few times already. They’re thinking about this. They can’t wait to beat someone with actual credentials. They get that chance next week at Philly. Next week, not this week. They probably aren’t thinking about this week, at all. And to top it all off, the least motivated team in the entire league finally lopped off the cancer holding them all back and will be motivated for the first time all season, guaranteed. This is as much of a trap as it gets. Yeah, maybe the Giants win, but, uh, I’ll take the points.

New York Jets @ Cleveland
Funny how you can beat the defending Super Bowl Champions and then the team with the best record in the league in consecutive weeks and still no one considers you legit. There’s good and bad news here though. The bad news is that the Jets are the perfect storm bad matchup for the Browns and they’ll probably get destroyed. The good news is that their schedule loosens up a few notches over the next five weeks. The bad news is that four of those five games are away. The good news is that, if they win those five, and it isn’t impossible considering how bad the opponents are, they’ll be 8-6 heading into key divisional games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh in weeks 16 and 17. And both of those games are at home.

New England @ Pittsburgh
There’s lots to like here, and this game could go any of a number of different ways. Any except New England wins on the back of a dominating run performance. They’ll have to pass to win. Luckily for the Pats, you can pass on the Steelers very effectively. But it’s really tough to go on the road against a very, very good team and try to win a one dimensional game. And New England has no defense whatsoever. A lot of people are talking themselves into New England here and I think it might be a mistake. I don’t know how good a chance they can have unless they hold James Harrison every single play. Good thing the league is complicit in allowing that to happen.

For the record, Baltimore @ Atlanta would have held the top spot were I to have written this earlier in the week.

17

Its an 8 game season, and Cincinnati is going to go 8-0.

18

Oh, Bungles.

I guess Andre Smith broke his foot again. Has he been showing any promise at tackle this year, or is he destined to be another Robert Gallery (bust at tackle, stud at guard)?

19

I think its funny that a Browns fan, the benefactor of a couple impressive wins this season, is talking shit already!

:smiley:

As for Smith, he actually was progressing. He played pretty well against the Steelers. The foot was broken in practice when someone stepped on it. Its the same foot that was broken last season, just a different bone this time. He’s out for the rest of the year which means that Dennis “Revolving Door” Roland, all 6’9" of him, will be taking over the job of allowing sacks from the RT position.

20

Your faith is impressive but for two things.

First, even if they go 8-0 the rest of the way out it doesn’t matter a whit, they’re already done and all a run like that will do for them is lose them a good draft pick. Then again, it’s not like they have a history of top-notch productive picks even when they have high ones. Akili Smith, Ki-Jana Carter, David Klingler, anyone?

Second, they are just as likely to go 0-8 over the same period. But for the Cowboys’ epic collapse keeping everybody waist deep in the lulz the Bengals’ equally epic collapse would be the story of the league. Perhaps it’s their history of abject futility that makes people sort of expect it, as if last year was the fluke that all indications make it appear to be. The Bengals simply aren’t good this year. Last season was apparently one of their twice-a-decade runs out of the AFC cellar.

But hey, hope springs eternal.