This would have been a great week to bet against the favorites. No fewer than seven underdogs posted victories, and two more covered the spread in close losses. All three favorites (Lions, Chiefs, Ravens) lost on Thanksgiving, as did the Eagles the next day. The biggest of the upsets was the Carolina victory on Sunday over the Rams, which vaulted the Bears into the top position in the NFC. The Jags now lead their division via the tiebreaker over the Colts, and the streaking Texans are just one game back. The Broncos continue to win close games, and the NFC West features 3 strong teams within a game of each other. Five teams (Titans, Raiders, Giants, Saints, and Cardinals) have been eliminated from the playoffs. Oh, and the Patriots just might have the best team in the league.
The surging Cowboys visit suddenly-struggling Detroit on Thursday, while, on Sunday, the Bengals try to keep their hopes alive in Buffalo. Two teams tied for the divisional lead meet when the Steelers travel to Baltimore, and another two tied atop their division face off when the Jaguars host the Colts. The Packers will try to overtake the Bears in their divisional battle in Green Bay, and the Chiefs face a must-win game in Arrowhead on Sunday night when Houston comes to town. The Chargers host the Eagles on MNF in an interesting battle.
Here are this week’s lines. All spreads taken from ESPNBet on Tuesday the 2nd at 9:00 am CT.
I wouldn’t say “suddenly”. The Lions have been off pretty much all season, with only a couple strong wins. I figured losing Ben Johnson would hurt, but it’s looking like it’s hurting even more than I thought it would.
Generally speaking, oddsmakers bake in 3 points for home-field advantage in the initial spreads…which is exactly the spread in that game.
Meanwhile, I’m sure that Bears fans are crying “no respect!” at their spread against the Packers. They have been very excitedly talking about being the “best team in the NFC” since the weekend.
Apparently Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured fibula (!). Richardson’s on IR, so Indy may end up fielding Riley Leonard to close out the season if that leg doesn’t hold up. The tie break may not matter for that reason alone.
On the other side, end of an era. Chiefs only getting the home field -3 against Houston is mildly surprising. Even if they do get into the playoffs, it’s pretty clear the current incarnation of the team is on its last leg
I consider myself a fairly informed football fan, so when I see a starting QB name and say, “Who?” Probably not a good sign.
The last time it was Max Brosmer and we saw what happened there.
Leonard apparently is a rookie drafted in the 6th round. I guess he last played for Notre Dame so there’s a chance I even saw him on TV at some point but there wasn’t anything memorable.
Good luck Riley. Maybe he’s the next Brock Purdy but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Starter at Duke in 2022 and '23, then transferred to ND, where he started the entire 2024 season, including the national championship game. But, obviously, NFL teams didn’t consider him to be a hot prospect, since he lasted until the sixth round of the draft.
And there seemed to be a lot of QBs in this last draft. There were (IIRC) at least a half dozen that there was a lot of buzz about, and anyone outside of that group seemed to be ignored.
I’m mildly curious, he might be a surprise. Who knows.
It’s probably not fair to compare Brosmer to him. Brosmer went undrafted and played for the Minnesota Golden Gophers before his NFL stint.
Then, let’s say rather he should reconsider the short term benefits of playing on a broken leg as a mid-tier NFL replacement level QB vs the longer term risks he’s taking against the life to follow or even just his next deal.
