Perhaps you’re right, but then again, did you see the video of him getting booed the other night? He had no idea how to deal with it. He’s so used to being adored by everyone, he literally locked up when presented with the fact that “not everybody likes you”. If anyone wants to beat Trump, they need to exploit those moments of weakness to their greatest advantage. If it means name-calling in order to get under his skin, then so be it.
You know, Trump is 77 years old. He’s obese, he doesn’t exercise, and his diet is terrible.
I’ve seen a claim that at 65 years old, a person’s odds of dying in any given year are about 1% and that rises to 10% by 85. These would, of course, be modified by lifestyle.
It’s not crazy for the Republicans (or the Dems, for that matter) to be thinking about a plan B in case they need it.
Could Haley’s role be just that? I don’t know what the process for replacing the candidate is if he dies say 4 months before the election.
Here’s another question: Suppose a presidential candidate died the day before the election and won. Would his VP automatically get the presidency?
According to the 2024 Democratic Party Delegate Selection Rules (specifically, rule 21.C.1(a)), since New Hampshire’s primary was “early”:
(a) NH loses half of its pledged delegates, and all of its Superdelegates;
(b) No candidate who “campaigns” in NH before the primary, which including putting their name on the ballot, may receive delegates from NH.
It depends on how the states’ laws concerning a situation like this would cover it. Remember, people are not electing the President and VP; they are electing members of the electoral college.
Here is California’s law:
“If, after the nomination of a candidate for President or Vice President by a political party and before the meeting of electors described in Section 6917, the candidate dies or withdraws as a candidate for that office in accordance with the rules of the political party, the pledge described in subdivision (a) applies to the successor candidate for that office nominated by the political party in accordance with the party’s rules.”
Republican Party Rule 8(a) says that if the Presidential nominee dies. the Republican National Committee will choose a replacement.
Presumably, if the death happens after the Electoral College votes are cast, but before they are counted, then the dead nominee is elected President, in which case, according to the 20th Amendment, the Vice-President becomes President on January 20.
Where are you seeing 11 versus 6? New Hampshire has 22 delegates. The sites I am seeing say Trump got 12 delegates and Haley got 10 (some say 9, with 1 to be determined as not all of the votes are in yet).
Bernie not quitting after he could NOT win cost us the 2016 election and got us into this mess.
But yeah, for that reason, Haley needs to stay in and start attacking trump.
in the first case- 4 years of trump.
Yep.
You are right- but see- trump will be swayed by them. He will start to show anger, start to froth and yell, maybe give himself a heart attack.
AP. Maybe those were just the ones clinched at the time.
But up until the moment of that hoped-for heart attack, trump increasingly frothing only further incentivizes the MAGAs to vote and to convert others to their cause.
Him being a spouting bully is his super power and the more he does it, the bigger and more enthusiastic the crowd of deplorables he attracts.
A complication is that many states have “faithless elector” laws that require electors to vote for the candidate that they were pledged to. While California seems to have clear guidance on what to do if the nominee dies, not all states’ laws are so clearly drafted. So you could end up with some electors voting for the dead guy and some for his replacement (and of course the other party’s candidate getting whatever electors he or she won), potentially giving no one an Electoral College majority and sending it to a contingent election in the House.
This is a bit of an open question. In the one case where a major party candidate died shortly after election day (Horace Greeley in 1872), three of his electors still cast votes for him. Congress refused to count those votes as valid. It didn’t matter because he’d lost in a landslide, but in the case of a dead winning candidate Congress could decide (by majority vote of both chambers) to disqualify EC votes for the dead candidate. But this leads to a further question – the Constitution requires the winning candidate to secure a majority of the total number of EC votes cast. Do those invalidated EC votes count toward establishing the number needed for a majority? If they do, then no one has a majority and it’s a contingent election in the House. If they don’t, then likely his opponent will have a majority of the remaining votes and become President.
Rest assured the outcome of these unclear cases won’t bevwhat makes logical sense in the general case.
Instead it’ll be whichever answer most advantages whichever party has the majority at that moment. And 100x more so if that party is the Rs.
Modern American politics runs on money. And Haley wouldn’t keep going if she didn’t have any.
So her continued campaign surely reflects the fact that there is a significant contingent of moneyed republicans who are funding her effort.
To me, this does speak to genuine concern within that party about trump’s fitness for office.
Perhaps it’s purely logistical; they worry about how he’d serve from prison. But I hope there are at least a few who are horrified by the authoritarianism.
To me it just makes sense for Haley to stay in because she gets an advantage of having been second place. If Trump drops out, she now has the most delegates. Everyone else has to play catchup with the limited number of delegates left. Then there’s the pretty good argument that those delegates pledged to Trump should favor the person who won second place.
I also would suspect that Trump falling out could actually weaken MAGA, because they’d need to coalesce behind a new leader. Sure, I suspect DeSantis would get a lot of the leftovers, but maybe not enough.
Obviously she has to have the money to keep going. But assuming she can accomplish that, she should stay in.
I don’t know about this. He’s got his supporters and his handful of House lieutenants, but Republicans have been on the losing side of national elections since they made him their king.
And yet they keep endorsing him. I don’t think he’s invulnerable-it’s just that no one’s got the right crowbar to pry him off the national stage.
Yeah, I just don’t see him as some sort of perpetual supporter gaining machine. I believe the fella has peaked, and that peak happened before today.
She’s got the Koch money behind her, much to the chagrin of DJT.
As I predicted, Haley has stepped up her attacks (I don’t think that was too brilliant a prediction, however… more like “no brainer”).
I think she’s pissed. He’s attacked her name and ethnicity. I think she is leaning into the idea that Trump as next and future prez/king is no bueno. I think she is now relishing the idea of taking him down.
And that is good! Her staying in the race is a nice kick in his gnarly nuts. Now, if he were disciplined, he could do the duck back vs. water thing, but Trump is the least able human in existence to perform that. He is going to spaz out over Haley’s intransigence at every turn, and she’s going to get a huge kick out of it.
Go for it, Nikki! Grind this decomposing fascist Goliath into sludge!
Looks like the party is trying to dis-invite her from the contest:
Edit: that’s a very Trump move, declaring the contest over right after it starts. I presume this also applies to Biden and Trump has proactively decided that Biden has already lost so why bother having an election at all? Just make Trump President now and save everyone the hassle of having to vote!
I’m not so sure it has as much to do with his fitness for office as his electability — and specifically, the possibility that by the general election he could be so toxic that he’d drag the entire party down the maelstrom.
A government controlled by Democrats (and even the remote possibility of a tax structure even 50% what it was in the 1950s, among other things) would be the stuff of “moneyed republicans’” nightmares.
I believe the proper title is “God-Emperor.” 
I agree with you about electability, and I have personally come around to the idea that this is a pretty good likelihood. As trump grows more desperate over his legal woes, he’s going to become increasingly unhinged, and his toxicity is going to increase exponentially.
Of course, I consider that a splendid thing.