Even it was Rs, that 40% will vote for Trump in November, especially after Haley endorses Trump.
Whatever fraction of Republican voters she’s getting now is irrelevant.
I don’t know. If there is some percentage of Republicans that are never Trumpers, that could help Joe. We’ll see.
I live in a more Red part of a blue rate, Massachusetts.
Nikki Hayley is quite popular among people who “held their noses and voted for Trump” in 2016 and 2020.
I have no doubt they will be holding their noses in 2024 again.
Trump will get a large majority—but not all—of that 40%.
The exact percentage is important. If he gets, say, ~39% … he’s treading water from his level of support four years ago. If instead it’s more like 38% (or less) … it means Trump’s support has decreased since the last general election.
No it doesn’t. My wife voted for Clinton and Biden. She’s going to vote for Biden again. But in the Massachusetts primary (March 5) she’s going to vote for Hayley. She’s the support for Hayley you seem to think Trump has lost. It’s just bad math.
7% of the voters in the Republican primary in SC identified as Democrats. Maybe some of them are “Trump Democrats” (like Reagan Republicans). But I bet a significant number are in fact Democrats who are trying to bolster Hayley’s candidacy. Either in the vain hope that they get a less worse worst case scenario in November (my wife’s position) or just he even more vain hope to keep Trump focused on the primary for longer.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres to The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein last night:
After months of vacillation and caution, Haley is now making a forceful case against Trump, and displaying great political courage in doing so: She is standing virtually alone while most of the GOP establishment (including virtually all of the political leadership in South Carolina) aligns behind him. Ayres believes that Haley is speaking for a large enough minority of the party to justify continuing in the race for as long as she wants—even if there’s virtually no chance anymore that she can expand her coalition enough to truly threaten Trump. “Nikki Haley represents a perspective, an outlook on the world, and a set of values that are still held by what remains of the Reagan-Bush coalition in the Republican Party,” Ayres told me.
(Link paywalled)
We might be able to build a better mousetrap with more focused inputs. I don’t know where the “7% were Democrats” number came from, but I’m happy to accept it for the nonce. And then from the same Brownstein Atlantic article I just linked:
Haley failed to attract as many independent and Democratic voters as she needed to participate today. Those non-Republicans only cast about 30 percent of the total votes, according to the exit polls.
All of that suggests that the SC Republican primary voters broke down as about 70% Republican, 7% Democrat, and 23% Independent/Other. The exercise is to determine what percentage of Republican and Independent votes Trump did not get last night, and from there determine what portion of those voters Trump has to get back in November to maintain his 2020 level of support.
In South Carolina, this exercise is academic — Trump can fall off several percent points in the general and still win SC’s Electoral College votes. But in closer states, this will get interesting.
The more or less consensus opinion I’ve seen is that Haley has been, while losing, beating the poll numbers, which in turn indicates softening support for the Orange Ape.
To which they’ll reply “it’s YOUR fault for not following the One True Faith from the beginning! SO disloyal! MAGA 2028!!!”
“Great political courage” would have been to make a forceful case from the start instead of months of vacillation and caution.
Just ask President Christie.
Eh, I think Haley maybe would have had a chance if she had taken the current tack last summer. Christie never stood a chance from the start; he has no political constituency and his campaign was just a personal statement from the start.
Anyone else get a text from Nikki? I did. Something about continuing the fight. I typed Stop to discontinue. How’d they get my number?
They got it by receiving a ‘Stop’ reply to the random number they texted. 
Bad news. Koch’s dropping support.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/politics/koch-network-nikki-haley-end-spending/index.html
I hope she already bought her ads for Super Tuesday. The media learned a long time ago to get cash up front from political candidates.
With modern social media, smart phones, use of public spaces, and so forth … couldn’t Haley just stay in the race even with virtually NO money (which, to be clear, is not where she is now)? Even if her campaign can’t rent out hotel ballrooms and blast TV ads all over the place … she could certainly set up on-the-cheap public appearances. Get them on video, upload to Instagram (or whatever).
I don’t know … just spitballing. Even if ALL her donations dried up right now (and again – that hasn’t happened yet), she’s not exactly compelled to formally drop out. Just stay in and keep bleeding 20-40% of every Republican primary going forward.
I know I’d like to see that. I like the way it undercuts the ‘Trump is God’s candidate’ messaging. (Why would God humiliate Donald by repeatedly showing that some substantial fraction of Republicans reject him?)
Well, God’s other son was also humiliated and betrayed, so why not Donald? /s
Hahahaha!