I think the Kochs’ play here is not to run Haley in the general, but to make her enough of a threat that Trump is forced to maker her a VP offer. She’d probably offer more stability than any other contender. And of course between Jack Smith and LDL Cholesterol, there’s a decent chance Haley gets to finish Trump’s term.
What makes you think that Haley would be willing to accept a VP campaign slot, or that she would have any influence upon Trump once elected? This is reminiscent of how one person or another would be “The Adult In The Room” by being included in the Trump Cabinet, only to see them serially marginalized or dismissed whenever they might have tried to moderate behavior.
Of his entire previous Cabinet, only Rex Tillerson seemed to actually be trying to do his assigned job of Secretary of State (shockingly, because I would have guessed him to be among the most venal), and he literally got shitcanned-on-the-shitter via Tweet for daring to contradict Trump. As if anyone is going to insert a sane person into a hypothetical future Trump Administration who is going to counteract all of the alt-right, Evangelical Christian-nation, and burgeoning fascists that he’ll preferentially appoint to critical roles.
Stranger
Still, it boils down to this for me: I’d rather take a chance, any chance, on a Nikki Haley Presidency than even a remote chance of Trump regaining the role, or even of DeSantis for that matter. And if her candidacy causes chaos within the GOP, all the better. If she is the nominee, I suspect a notable number of Trumpers will sit-out the general in protest, which will be a tailwind for Biden/Harris (of course, I also suspect she’ll capture a notable number of Independents, so may cancel out the Trumpers). At any rate, anyone but Trump.
Zero chance Trump accepts Haley or indeed anyone with any kind of political juice as his VP. He wants followers only. He’s so desperately needy for attention and validation that he’ll never allow anyone in his circle who might upstage or succeed him. He’ll eat a pile of broken-glass hamberders before he lets that happen.
He took Pence because he judged him a pushover, and he was right. The same calculus will apply.
I don’t see Haley-as-Veep as an attempt to rein in Trump (something the Koch organization likely realize is impossible). Instead, as @HMS_Irruncible noted, its aim is to have her next in line when — or if — Trump’s Presidency/candidacy succumbs to legal problems or Big Macs.
Not just a pushover; Pence was enraptured with Trump:
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The Kochs have probably backed the best and sanest available candidate. However, it won’t make any difference to Trump in the absence of significant legal or lifestyle supervention.
This would be true except — there is no plausible VP pick he could trust to put his interests above theirs.
On Saturday, the New York Times came out with a VP long list. Nineteen names. It’s highly likely to be one of these. And my question is — who on the list lacks ambition? Would any of them want him to get his threatened third term? No, they want it for themselves. And if any of them did succeed him, would he trust them to give him a fresh pardon? Doubt it.
Based on this logic, it is a real possibility he will pick Haley.
Paywalled.
Sorry, now has gift link.
That list fundamentally misunderstands Trump. It’s rooted in conventional politicking. What will it take for media types to grasp that Trump just doesn’t think like this, and that they need to throw away the same old playbook?
Trump/Carlson, MGT or Sanders would make me so tired. I don’t see anyone on that list that would be a “flawless” choice. I did like how it describes Rubio as if he’s a viable pick.
Trump doesn’t think in terms of ticket balance or policy advocacy. He needs a true believer who will be an attack dog against the machinery of democracy for the sole purpose of putting Trump in office and keeping him there, with no meaningful ambitions for anything else that overlap with Trump’s own need to hog the spotlight. Someone like Kari Lake might qualify on the first point but she fails the second.
It will be Michael Flynn or someone like him, and he isn’t even on that list.
Edit to add: it occurs to me that Trump is taking over the thread the way he does everyone else, and I’m not helping. A separate “who will Trump pick as VP?” thread is probably needed. But suffice to say that Haley won’t be it.
I agree with your assessment, but it really should have been “shitcanned-on-the-shitter via Twitter”. The bonus points for rhyme would have nudged you past the spread.
I bow to your superior lyricism and look forward to your forthcoming appearance at the CMA Awards!
Stranger
Thank you for the gift link!
Nonsense. There’s Pence. 'Es not dead yet. And he’s got no realistic presidential ambitions. Despite his desultory run brief stroll in the general direction of the 2024 R primary.
The Kochs are not far in power from the Russian oligarchs under Yeltsin. Their organization might just be capable of a clandestine deus ex machina.
2 things about Haley are obvious:
- She is an obsequious climber. Of course she’ll accept the highest position she’s offered.
- She has no real chance of beating Trump in the Republican primary. Nobody does.
However, Haley seems strong enough to weaken Trump in the primary fight. I believe this is her actual strategy (as it often is for many primary challengers), essentially to put up enough of a fight to extort a plum job from the front-runner.
I share your skepticism that most people can change Trump’s mind (unless they’re young, blonde, and attractive in a hot-lawyer sort of way).
However it’s simply inaccurate to suggest that nobody has ever influenced or altered Trump’s policy outcomes. People absolutely can (and have) changed outcomes in highly material ways by virtue of how they accede (or don’t accede) to Trump’s whims and outbursts. Famously, although Mike Pence never changed Trump’s mind about stealing the election, his sniveling inaction served well enough to undermine it.
And that’s the kind of person he’ll look for in any role in Dumpster Fire II - Electric Boogaloo. Someone to give him at least an ember of hope that whatever hijinks he’s up to will succeed. Haley would and could do that for him, but right now she’s an opponent and may say mean things about him, which as we well know, will penetrate his thin skin. Even if she wants to be VP, I am not sure any more he’d want her for that role. Too smart, and with her own supporters that may not have complete fealty to him. But as I said upthread - let’s see how hard she competes with the front-runner.
As far as Haley having said mean things about him, I feel like this would be easiliy handled by her having a private meeting in which she would say “I didn’t really mean those things, it was part of a plan to get close to you and serve you.” He’s dumb enough to believe it.