I made mention of No Labels a couple of times in this thread, most recently here:
But this concern really deserves its own thread.
What impact, if any, do you believe No Labels will have on the 2024 election?
I made mention of No Labels a couple of times in this thread, most recently here:
But this concern really deserves its own thread.
What impact, if any, do you believe No Labels will have on the 2024 election?
I suppose a quick explanation of the No Labels Party is in order here.
No Labels purports to be a moderate party made up of never-Trumpers, disenfranchised Republicans and moderate Democrats who want to return to a bipartisan approach to governing. Sounds good, right?
Unfortunately, it appears (from my perspective, anyway) to be a largely Republican-funded party intended to split Democratic votes to deny Joe Biden a second term. Here’s a link I posted in the DeSantis thread about their funding:
They have claimed that if Biden has “significant” support before 2024, they will withdraw their candidate. However, defining “significant” support seems elusive.
Very little. I think it’s an obvious grift run by obvious grifters like Mark Penn, and I think it might enrich those grifters a bit, but they won’t get a real candidate and it won’t go anywhere.
^^^ I agree. All these alternative parties populated by “former moderate and centrist figures” basically strike me as groups of people annoyed they have been ejected from the financial trough and are looking for a way to resume feeding.
I think it is as likely to steal voters from the Right as the Left.
I think in states like Arizona, a centrist candidate will appeal more to voters iffy about a Trump or DeSantis then those iffy about Biden.
I’m hoping in North Carolina also will swing left by more votes being drained from the Republican candidate than Biden.
Every couple of cycles, there’s a new third party whose platform consists entirely of “We’re not either of the other parties!”. They never amount to anything, even less than the standard third parties like the Libertarians and the Greens.
I see efforts like this and The Lincoln Project as attempts to salvage the public perception of the Republican Party, and to assure the average voter that the Republican Party is still “the party of Lincoln and Ronald Reagan”. I don’t see any short term threat to Democratic candidates.
Everyone can plainly see that it’s the bunk and a Republican front. It will have about as much influence as those stupid billboards that say, “NICENESS. Pass It On.”
It’s essentially a figment of the Beltway imagination and will have no effect on voters.
There is a threat, depending on who is the nominee. Certainly if Manchin or Huntsman are in the running, I can’t see any Biden voter thinking “hey, this is a candidate I’m into!” But this from the article that Aspenglow shared is a little chilling:
The most discussed potential candidate for No Labels has been Manchin, who has declined to say whether he would participate in this effort. Poll data suggesting a No Labels campaign would hurt Biden more than Trump—as well as the conservative bent of the few previously known funders of the group, such as billionaire Harlan Crow, the billionaire benefactor of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and a collector of Nazi memorabilia—has prompted Democratic strategists to speculate that this endeavor is a not-too-secret project to elect Trump or another Republican.
Andrew Yang has the “Forward” Party that seems to be moribund.
Manchin loves attention (and money), but I also think he’s a very shrewd politician, and I don’t think he wants to help Trump. I’m not surprised that he’s basking in the attention No Labels is bringing him, but I will be very surprised if he actually goes forward and runs for President, when such a run probably wouldn’t help anyone but Trump.
If Biden lost 44,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin in 2020, the election would have been an Electoral College tie. In the same circumstance in 2024, Trump would win the Electoral College due to reapportionment. That’s the threat of No Labels – that they eek out just enough votes in just the right states from moderate voters who otherwise would have voted for Biden.
That said, I’m fairly placid about them for now. They’re still fighting to even get ballot access, and as with a lot of “third way” parties, they’re going to look a lot less moderate and independent once they have a candidate and a platform.
@flurb, that’s well said.
However, I do think it’s important to keep in mind that the Power Republicans (as opposed to the MAGA Republicans) genuinely don’t GAF which Republican butt hits the chair behind the Resolute Desk on January 20, 2025. If Trump is the nominee, they will back Trump. If it’s someone else, they will support that person. All that matters is the (R) after their name.
MAGA Republicans only want Trump, so in this situation, their interests somewhat dovetail with those of the Power Republicans.
For the purposes of both, any DINO dumb enough to take up as their No Labels presidential standard bearer will do. They’re not in it to win. They’re in it to spoil. In an election where 70%-ish of Dems believe Biden is “too old” to run – a situation about which he can do nothing — a younger, more flashy candidate from No Labels could absolutely guarantee a Republican win.
No Labels is clothed in the sheepskin of moderation, but I believe its sole intent is to pull votes from Biden. According to all pundits I’ve heard, any third party run will damage Biden more than whichever Republican gains the nomination. And as @flurb points out, the margins are miniscule. Democrats fall in love. Republicans fall in line.
And you just know there are voters in these states who despise Trump, but have bought into the Biden-is-an-extreme-leftist (or the Biden-is-a-doddering-old-man or Biden-might-be-corrupt-too) narrative. If the NL person gets on the ballot and seems sane, they’ll pull some votes from Biden.
Perhaps…but how many votes that it would steal from the right would have voted for Biden instead?
Then again, it could steal a considerable number of Biden votes in California without having any effect; the question is, how many of those votes are in swing states?
Which is why I specifically addressed the 2 closest states from last election. A 3% shift in NJ would mean nothing. a .3% shift in AZ, NC or GA means a lot.
This whole thread feels like a bunch of people trying to come up with excuses to reject reason.
“Oh no! Republicans have joined it!” Yeah, no shit. Trump drove off sane people from the Republican party. Those people - Republicans - are saying that they’re tired of the BS and want to create something more reasonable. You are deciding that 100% of them are being dishonest and that if even one of them has nefarious intent then you can’t join up. That’s nonsense.
And so there are no Democrats and so you can’t overpower the individuals with nefarious intent (if they actually exist). It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But what if you believe in sanity and bipartisanship, accept what’s written on the tin, and join? Then you become the majority and that majority is people who are san and believe in bipartisanship.
If everyone hems and haws and uses excuses then the one chance for what you want dies. If you take a leap of faith and convince everyone else to do so as well then, in a couple of months, you can look and count and see if the new way is in the majority. If it’s not then, sure, you go back to your original party. But take that leap first. Tell everyone that you’re doing it. Tell them to do it, too. It’s free, there’s a non-zero chance that you make our country better, and no bad thing happens by joining except that you tried to do the right thing for a few months.
Are you suggesting that a new party can go from zero to a majority – or even a 34/33/33 plurality – in a matter of months? I know a lot of people are fed up with both Dems and the GOP, but that seems incredibly far-fetched.
(And yes, I know it’s something of a self-fulfilling prophesy, but still.)
There’s no reason that it can’t. Count how long it took from some act of police misbehavior to riots unfolding and you’ll be talking hours and days.
It takes you zero time to know which is the better way to run the country. All that’s needed is for you to be willing to choose the welfare of yourself, your family, your friends, and your descendants. Commit to doing the right thing and demand the same of others. It takes no more than having the conversation and being firm.
Only a very small fraction of the population participated in those riots. Way less than 1%. A political party needs a significant plurality to be successful. Even with three significant parties in the election, it’ll need at least 35% and probably more.