Okay, I missed the broadcast and watched it on a borrowed video tonight, so I get to jump in late.
It wasn’t a surprising episode. Amber’s remark two weeks ago about being the one getting screwed made it pretty clear that there was going to be a swap (or that her relationship with Rob was progressing). The overwhelming focus on Amber made it almost certain the Chaperas were going to lose the immunity. If it had been the Mogo Mogos going to TC, they would have been showing Rupert or Jenna or Alicia or someone on that tribe as foreshadowing.
Amber’s strategy, while obvious, was the only realistic thing she had. So no surprises there.
Jerri, on the other hand, has surprised me throughout this series. In Australia she was a mover and shaker, albeit an ultimately unsuccessful one. But this time she’s been purely reactive. This was the third time she thought she was going to be voted off and each time she’s reacted by hoping Lex will change his mind. That’s a strategy? Granted she got lucky twice, but third time was the charm.
What Jerri should have done was fight back. When Lex told her she was going, she should have pointed out some obvious facts to him, like that Amber and Rob’s first loyalty would be to each other and where did that leave Lex? For that matter, where is Lex going to stand with the other four Mogo Mogos? Jerri, while she’s been ineffective, has remained constantly loyal to Lex and done whatever he told her to do. She’s basically been his Amber (without the snuggling). And who better to go against in the final two?
Then after talking to Lex, Jerri should have gone to Kathy and Shii Ann. She could have pointed out to them that Rob had made a promise to Lex; Shii Ann and Kathy don’t even have an IOU. Even if Rob decides to honor his promise to Lex, who’s going to be the outsiders after the merge? Then having brought Shii Ann and Kathy around, Jerri could have pointed out that Lex is the dangerous one; they should hook up with Amber and vote out Lex. This could have avoided Rob’s wrath, gotten Amber on their side as much as possible, and rid themselves of a dangerous rival.
It’s hard to say if Lex made a good deal. There have been so many promises made, somebody’s going to get screwed. He’s as likely a target as anyone else.
Kathy and Shii Ann (since at the moment they seemed to be working as one) - As I wrote above, they seemed to have missed the obvious candidate. Even of the two choices they considered, I think they made the wrong one. Amber clearly is giving her loyalty to Rob and the Mogo Mogos; there’s nothing left after that. They should have bitten the bullet, voted out Amber, and hoped the other Mogo Mogos would consider ousting Rob if there’s a merge. Kathy might survive this mistake, but I think Shii Ann doomed herself this week.
Rob, meanwhile, remains oblivious to the fact that he’s a open leader and every such player so far has been voted off at the first opportunity. Rob may be one immunity challenge away from leaving the show. Others have written that his closeness to Amber is a liability, but I don’t think so. At the moment, any alliance that seeks to get rid of either Rob or Amber will have to deal with the surviving lovebird for the next vote. Whoever that is will be an open target to join a counter-alliance. So an alliance to get rid of Rob or Amber will have to get at least a two vote majority before making its move.