Really?
NYT: North Korea Signals Willingness to ‘Denuclearize,’ South Says
Of course there’s still a lot of negotiating between here and any actual denuclearization, but it seems a lot closer to my characterization of events than “stops to reload” was.
“Doing” != “saying.” I’m glad you’re getting to experience some optimism, though.
I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade, but I’d like to point out that South Korea’s newly-elected president has a horse in this race, too. He’s a democratically-elected leader of a moderate left party that has tended to argue for more soft-line diplomacy than hard-line diplomacy with North Korea. He’s positioning himself politically as being the guy who got these two seemingly unhinged leaders to get in the same room to talk with each other about possible peace. Regardless of what happens afterward, one could see how that might make him look politically attractive to South Korean voters.
In terms of security against an invasion by a hostile power, there’s a world of difference between having nukes and not having nukes, as Saddam Hussein found out fifteen years ago.
I’m not being facetious here when I ask: just what can we offer Kim that would be worth enough to him to give up that kind of security?
Food.
He doesn’t look like he, or any of his inner circle are short of a calorie, or smoked salmon, smashed avocados or black caviar for that matter.
He is as considerate of “his people” as Trump is of “his tenants”, indeed it’s quite a similar attitude on several levels.
Is this negotiation going to take place before Trump meets with Kim next month, or will he alone make the deal happen in real time?
I’ll make you a bet; Kim will test another missile within six months of the summit meeting. By the end of the year, tops.
He and his inner circle may not be short, but if enough of his military are, that could be a problem. If enough of the military care enough at severe food and supply shortages for everyone else not in the military, that could also be a problem. Intense brainwashing is obviously having the desired effect, but it’s not fail-safe. There are people who defect from North Korea, after all. And there have been more and more of them lately.
It’s just too bad that in the last election, we had a choice between foreign policy that’s really not at all that good (Clinton) versus no foreign policy at all (Trump, Sanders, and Johnson). America’s got global power, but its rapidly getting dumber and dumber at using it. Our choice has become, do we do something stupid or do we do nothing at all. Other countries don’t respect us; they fear us - fear that we’ll either do something magnificently stupid or just irresponsibly walk away leaving a power vacuum and everyone else fighting over it. We take this baggage into every set of negotiations and this summit will be absolutely no different.
That comparison is utter nonsense. Kim isn’t throwing up his hands and surrendering. He’s just announced that he’s done testing nuclear weapons.
To use your analogy, the school shooter has left the gun store and is driving towards the school. And you’re telling us it’s a positive sign because he’s no longer in the store buying boxes of ammunition.
You do understand that Kim is saying his condition for abandoning nuclear weapons is a complete American withdrawal from South Korea? In other words, he wants Trump to throw up his hands and surrender.
I actually understood that they’d dropped that particular demand. CNN: North Korea drops withdrawal of US forces as condition of denuclearization, Moon says
Where are you getting your information from?
In terms of symbolism, that would be a significant concession and it’s an encouraging sign at least; however, the reality is that troops in South Korea are largely not much more than a symbolic tripwire. The test is, what happens to sanctions and the policy of political isolation against his regime? The US position to date has been, North Korea must end its weapons program (and some would argue destroy the arsenal it has) and also stop engaging in other hostile acts first, before the policies of isolation and sanctions end. It seems likely that KJL would ask Trump to show some flexibility in that regard, and even if Trump is willing to negotiate, it’s not clear how the rest of Congress would view any compromise. Republicans in Congress essentially derailed Clinton’s attempts to achieve a similar outcome in the 1990s. He would probably face bipartisan skepticism.
The thing with the cold war arms race making nuclear weapons moot … the west has long had a police of trading with the commies, in order to get them addicted to trade.
So whats happenned is a classic case of good cop, bad cop.
This is a good cop only in that it can’t take criticsim, and certainly won’t admit any mistake. No matter, it still gets to pass the bad cops message on.
Good cop… China… “Nothings wrong, its all peaceful ,we didnt do anything wrong, USA is sabre rattling for nothing.”
Bad cop. USA’s trump… “we will blow you commies to hell … or at least threaten you and your allies and cut off trade”.
Good cop China … “well , there isnt anything wrong, but the west has its knickers in a knot, and we can’t afford a blockage of trade with China… and we are feeling sorry for the citizens of Korea… How about North Korea become a responsible government as defined by 2018 standards, not 1718.”
I am thinking that China would have told North Korea that it has to be a pseudo-communist country, you know one country two systems ? One system is the ghost of communism … the shell of it exists as the oligarchy running a dictatorship… the other system is the cash cow… the industries… the capitalist system.
So I think that changes happen in NK due to China…
But NK leadership has to pretend that its due to USA. So as to make everyone think that they were forced to change, not that they are admitting the old ways were wrong.
The chinese oligarchy would have explained to Kim that the way Kim was talking, he was risking losing face and having a revolution occuring against them.
China would have explained that the President of the USA is directly elected, and in no way to be taken as if a powerful ruler… he can stretch some emergency powers as long as his party tolerates it. If they didnt tolerate it, they’d vote and stop him… or even get rid of him. So its really that the whole Republic party supports efforts to cause change in North Korea… how can Kim outcompete a disposable POTUSA ? Kim has to be the indisposable statesmen… not the disposable one.
Now think how cleaning up NK’s act helps china ? The chinese gov is scared of the effect of the China industrial revolution change on their citizens …there is the threat of revolution … they have democratic systems now… sure, its only community groups, which control street names and lunar new year celebratons… but they may get together in the suburbs and form a party and demand democracy at the higher levels. They are the child of communist minions, and know the communist system…if they get together, they’d know enough to prove the oligarchy is a corrupt group of croneys. So anyway ,the North Korea gov was making the Chinese gov look bad… but having NK clean up would be a boon to china’s oligarchy… they’d be able to say communism wasn’t dead…
Turns out that, whether this is a positive step or a terrible idea, depends only on when you ask the question.
That is friggin’ fantastic.
Hahaha classic.