I would say that it is a small step in the right direction that had nothing to do with Trump, and everything to do with Kim’s current set of goals, and possibly South Korea’s new leader.
I also think that while this could potentially be a great opportunity, it will require very careful negotiations in order to exploit it. In the hands of expert diplomats with a firm understanding of the internal politics, culture and goals of all parties in the vicinity, this could be the start of real progress.
Unfortunately Trump has basically thrown out anyone in the state department who would fit that description. He also has a Dunning Kruger level of confidence in his own negotiation abilities and so will blunder into the negotiations blindly, confident in his powers as world’s best deal maker that he can outwit Rocketman. However, Rocketman has been immersed in the politics of the region his whole life, while Trump only recently learned that the Korean war ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty. It is also important to remember that Trump that Trump’s goal isn’t to get the best deal for the US, it’s to get the best deal for Trump. So he would gladly sell all of the US’s influence in the region in exchange for something he can tweet victory about back home.
He definitely hasn’t dropped the gun. At best he has picked up the phone and agreed to talk to the police. The problem is that our hostage negotiator is this guy.
I think this has something to do with Trump, but nothing to do with Trump’s ability at dealmaking and diplomacy. I think for Kim it is a matter of Trump needs a war badly. He’s just brought on a warmonger as Sec’y of State. It is better to feign some overtures of peace, which will implicitly hold up a sign pointing to Iran that says “Plz bomb here”. Hopefully, dialogue between NK and SK will make some real progress even if I don’t think NK’s heart is really in it. Sometimes just coming to the table and talking can sort some things out.
Recent reports suggest one of North Korea’s sites kinda 'sploded. Not to be a Debby Downer, but that seems like a far more likely reason for the sudden halt than anything Trump has done.
His military are no doubt pleased to have nukes and missiles. But now they have them, have tested them, so they exist, their deterrent value will not improve with more testing, especially if they don’t work. Quit while you’re ahead.
Also, this shit is expensive as a motherfuck. Money that might otherwise be spent buying food to feed the troops.
As much as I despise Trump I think HD is correct (for now) that Trump gets a bit of credit for the current movement of NK. Maybe it’s a big farce on NK’s part (likely) or maybe it’ll fall apart (possible) or maybe Trump will tweet something stupid about NK and blow it all up, but right now it looks hopeful. Maybe as hopeful as it’s been since the 1950’s.
I don’t believe it’s any great statesmanship by Trump, though. I think it just as likely that Kim realized that one crazy person in the room can get away with shit but two crazy people feed off each other and someone ends up getting hurt. Trump still gets credit for that, I’d say.
Moon clarified his statement in subsequent reports. North Korea has not renounced its long-held call for an American withdrawal; it simply has chosen not to explicitly raise it this week.
Please. Trump isn’t a ‘great negotiator’ with anyone who doesn’t want to kiss his ass. Kim saw Putin playing him like a fiddle and he’s trying the same.
I’m not sure you read my entire post. On the international stage Trump is generally a disaster. In the business world his posturing may appear to work but–in foreign policy–opposing countries have competing interests which Trump can’t fathom. His erratic flip-flopping makes it hard for other nations to have a coherent strategy. He undermines his own negotiators; he could hardly be worse.
However, in the case of NK, his erratic behavior might actually be a positive. In the past NK could probably bank on US presidents not wanting to be responsible for thousands (millions?) of SK deaths. But Trump can’t think that far ahead; all he knows is that NK is bad–really bad-- and he has a big hammer; who knows if he might actually use it? Is NK trying to get some support from SK as an attempt to corral Trump?
Maybe NK would be doing the same thing if Clinton (who would have a much better grasp of international politics) were president but it’s happening under Trump.
What occurred to me as I was reading about their summit and reading about all of the warm fuzzies that the summit might be creating is that it creates a potential problem for the United States.
If the two Koreas appear to be working toward some sort of peace agreement, then that puts the United States in the position of having to support that agreement, irrespective of whether or not it addresses the concerns of the US and Japan. If voters in South Korea view the summit positively, that puts the US and Trump in the position of potentially fucking it all up if the Kim-Trump summit somehow breaks down, which would potentially drive a wedge between the US and South Korea.
If, let’s say, Kim Jong Un pledges to President Moon that he will suspend further development of his nuclear program and missile testing and maybe even scrap some of his biological arsenal or offer other minor concessions, then that could be viewed as “progress,” particularly if Moon, independent of US and Japan’s concerns, views this as a stepping stone toward the end of sanctions against Kim’s regime.
Kim may also be angling for an even more powerful play here, which is a direct connection to the South Korean people. Through Moon, he may have opened up a more direct channel of communication to persuade South Koreans that he just wants to be left alone and that the two Koreans can manage their own affairs without other world powers like the US involved. Even among South Koreans, there is a long-standing sentiment that countries have exploited Koreans for their own benefit. Korea has a history of being invaded, occupied, and exploited by larger, more powerful outside powers and Kim knows that he can use that sentiment to his advantage in dealing with the US and Japan.
The South Korean president is unlikely to agree to something that the US would be strongly against as they could risk losing some defense support in response. Kim could promise him the moon, but if that’s a problem for the US, it’s a problem for SK.
Kim has done pretty well playing a rather weak hand, such as spinning the collapse of his nuclear test site into a statesmanlike “decision” that he is willing to forego further tests in the interests of yadda yadda yadda.
optimistic me : this is great - its time that the Korea war ends officially and maybe Kim means it this time.
realistic me :
1.) end war
2.) re-unify korea - formalize trade, etc
3.) Tell U.S. “Thanks for helping, you’re no longer needed here to ‘defend’ against NK” - our forces must leave
4.) Kim kills Moon and rest of SK reps - declares himself president of Korea (all of it)
5.) Kim still has his nukes, etc from the beginning - but now he ALSO has all of SK and its wealth and people.
Basically - Kim is using this to do a ‘bloodless’ takeover of SK - he needs it.
I think the issue is still ambiguous: I’ve seen reports that DPRK dropped its demand for U.S. troops withdrawal as a “precondition” for talks on denuclearization (which has obviously happened), and also that it has dropped its demand for withdrawal as a part of a final denuclearization deal.
While the breakthroughs yesterday and today are very good news, let’s not kid ourselves about the North Korean position on withdrawal of U.S. troops:
Of course, the Republican reaction to these talks is just as puzzling. When Clinton negotiated a deal with North Korea, he was a sucker. When Obama negotiated a deal with Iran, he was a sucker. When Moon negotiates a nascent deal with North Korea, OMG TRUMP WINS!!! Not to mention that Trump just hired a National Security Adviser who could not be further from the “let’s use diplomacy with North Korea” camp.