North Korea suspending missile testing and closing nuclear site; Trump the statesman?

[LAZombie]

@Ravenman

I think the issue is still ambiguous: I’ve seen reports that DPRK dropped its demand for U.S. troops withdrawal as a “precondition” for talks on denuclearization (which has obviously happened), and also that it has dropped its demand for withdrawal as a part of a final denuclearization deal.

While the breakthroughs yesterday and today are very good news, let’s not kid ourselves about the North Korean position on withdrawal of U.S. troops:
When Moon Met Kim: Why South Korea Needs To Push North Over Denuclearization

Of course, the Republican reaction to these talks is just as puzzling. When Clinton negotiated a deal with North Korea, he was a sucker. When Obama negotiated a deal with Iran, he was a sucker. When Moon negotiates a nascent deal with North Korea, OMG TRUMP WINS!!! Not to mention that Trump just hired a National Security Adviser who could not be further from the “let’s use diplomacy with North Korea” camp.

"Kim acknowledged the widespread skepticism over their summit. “We have reached big agreements before but were unable to fulfill them. … There are skeptical views on whether the meeting today will yield meaningful results,” Kim said. “If we maintain a firm will and proceed forward hand in hand, it will be impossible at least for things to get worse than they are now.”

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_KOREAS_SUMMIT?SITE=TXMCA&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2018-04-26-20-51-35

[Gyrate]

@tim314

Obama got one for not being George W. Bush. Which, even as a liberal Obama voter, I found absurd.

And I too. I think the Nobel committee were a tad peeved at President Bush about the whole Iraq thing and they weren’t allowed to award a Nobel Fuck You Prize to him, so they had to do it indirectly.

@simster

optimistic me : this is great - its time that the Korea war ends officially and maybe Kim means it this time.

realistic me :

1.) end war
2.) re-unify korea - formalize trade, etc
3.) Tell U.S. “Thanks for helping, you’re no longer needed here to ‘defend’ against NK” - our forces must leave
4.) Kim kills Moon and rest of SK reps - declares himself president of Korea (all of it)
5.) Kim still has his nukes, etc from the beginning - but now he ALSO has all of SK and its wealth and people.

Basically - Kim is using this to do a ‘bloodless’ takeover of SK - he needs it.

What the what now? Even Tom Clancy would balk at writing that last scenario, considering it too implausible. Does this stealth coup rely on whether the flags in the DMZ have gold fringes?

[Ravenman]

@carnivorousplant

I wonder if that tipped the scale with the North Koreans or the Chinese.

I find that about as likely as the mistaken believe that Iranians released the hostages on Inauguration Day 1981 because they were soooooooo scared of Reagan.

[simster]

@John_Mace

Realistic??? Are you taking bets, because I’ve got some cash burning a hole in my pocket.

I meant to edit that to ‘cynical’ or ‘pessimistic’ me - but time ran out and I didn’t.

[asahi]

@Ravenman

Of course, the Republican reaction to these talks is just as puzzling. When Clinton negotiated a deal with North Korea, he was a sucker. When Obama negotiated a deal with Iran, he was a sucker. When Moon negotiates a nascent deal with North Korea, OMG TRUMP WINS!!!

Right? Just like Reagan “won” the Cold War all by himself. :rolleyes:

@Ravenman

Not to mention that Trump just hired a National Security Adviser who could not be further from the “let’s use diplomacy with North Korea” camp.

The Bolton factor will be interesting indeed.

[Deeg]

@John_Mace

The South Korean president is unlikely to agree to something that the US would be strongly against as they could risk losing some defense support in response. Kim could promise him the moon, but if that’s a problem for the US, it’s a problem for SK.

This is where Trump’s erraticism is either a boon or blessing. How does SK decide what the US (read: Trump) will be strongly against? He called Kim an “honorable” man the other day. Maybe SK goes out on a limb and decides to do what’s best for SK.

I saw this on another board I frequent; from The Guardian: Inside North Korea, all they will say about Trump is ‘he’s crazy’

Officials there [NK] have long calculated that no US president would risk lives in Seoul with an attack on the North. But under Trump that is no longer a safe assumption, says Andrei Lankov, professor of Korean Studies at Kookmin University.

[elucidator]

In the past, we survived several examples of nuclear dumfuckery when cooler heads prevailed based on little more than the faith that the Other Guy was not insane. We could be pretty sure that the Other Guy also knew that the POTUS wasn’t either.

And now? Well, maybe the installation of John of House Bolton as a national security advisor has reassured them.

[ElvisL1ves]

It’s easy to say you’re not going to test anymore when you can’t.

North Korea’s nuclear test in September last year was so strong that it caused an on-site collapse at the test site, geologists in China claim.

Using high-quality seismic data to pinpoint the location of several tremors that followed the test, the researchers determined that one event 8.5 minutes after the nuclear test was in fact the cavity caused by the blast collapsing.

[simster]

@ElvisL1ves

It’s easy to say you’re not going to test anymore when you can’t.

So - they are now Kronos in the ‘undiscovered country’.

[Steve_MB]

@simster

So - they are now Kronos in the ‘undiscovered country’.

Yes, except Star Trek VI didn’t have an orange Pakled swooping in trying to take credit for everything.

[Ravenman]

@asahi

Right? Just like Reagan “won” the Cold War all by himself. :

Trump made some sort of comment today about how a lot changed in North Korea after he started saying things like “Rocket Man” and “Liddle Kim.” Yep, that’s what changed.

[Tatterdemalion]

Now it is not good for the Christian’s health to hustle the Aryan brown,
For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;
And the end of the fight is a tombstone white with the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear: “A Fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.”

This little gem from Rudyard Kipling just popped into my mind. The language is very un-pc, but there is some wisdom there.

I think that whatever happens with Korea and Iran, Trump is going to get his ass handed to him.

I suspect that when the dust (but hopefully not the fallout) settles, the end game is Iran has nukes, North Korea still has nukes, and the Europeans and Chinese are happily trading with both of them. And we’ll be frozen out.

[carnivorousplant]

@Tatterdemalion

This little gem from Rudyard Kipling just popped into my mind. The language is very un-pc, but there is some wisdom there.

I think that whatever happens with Korea and Iran, Trump is going to get his ass handed to him.

An very appropriate comment, but I believe that we will have our asses handed to us, one way or another.

[Little_Nemo]

@HurricaneDitka

You didn’t answer my question. What is your source?

You can find multiple sources for this. Here’s some of the first ones I found via a quick google search:

Questions remain about how North Korea would define denuclearization, which Washington sees as Pyongyang abandoning its nuclear weapons program.

North Korea has said over the years that it could consider giving up its nuclear arsenal if the United States removed its troops from South Korea and withdrew its so-called nuclear umbrella of deterrence from South Korea and Japan.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-talks/north-korea-tells-u-s-it-is-prepared-to-discuss-denuclearization-source-idUSKBN1HF0WQ

First South Korean, then Chinese officials have in recent weeks reported North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has told them he is “committed to denuclearization” on the Korean peninsula.

Kim’s declared commitment to denuclearization, however, is neither new, nor likely in line with Washington’s expectations.

North Korea has long said it is open to eventually giving up its nuclear arsenal if the United States withdraws its troops from South Korea and ends its “nuclear umbrella” security alliance with Seoul, among other conditions.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-denuclearisation/differing-views-of-denuclearization-complicate-north-korea-talks-idUSKBN1H40YI

But what does “denuclearization” mean?

It depends on whom you are asking. To some in Washington, “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” as Trump tweeted late last month, means Kim handing over his nuclear weapons and missile systems and allowing international inspectors to check that the regime is keeping its word.

To Pyongyang, it means something very, very different. It means mutual steps to get rid of nuclear weapons, including requiring the United States to take down the nuclear umbrella it has put up over South Korea and Japan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-koreas-definition-ofdenuclearization-is-very-different-from-trumps/2018/04/09/55bf9c06-3bc8-11e8-912d-16c9e9b37800_story.html?utm_term=.b4d9757c1b2e

[Bryan_Ekers]

I predict:

1. No matter what happens, Trump will claim an unprecedented victory.

2. A lot of Americans will say they agree.

3. Some of them will actually believe it.

[Chisquirrel]

@Steve_MB

Kim has done pretty well playing a rather weak hand, such as spinning the collapse of his nuclear test site into a statesmanlike “decision” that he is willing to forego further tests in the interests of yadda yadda yadda.

And had the Tangerine Mussolini given it all the appropriate reception and ignored it, he would have folded or busted. Instead, the Imbecile-In-Chief tried to spin it as one of his “accomplishments” and gave power to Kim in the long term.

Are we really talking about Trump being a statesman when he’s only months removed from “my nuclear button is bigger”?

[John_Mace]

@Ravenman

Trump made some sort of comment today about how a lot changed in North Korea after he started saying things like “Rocket Man” and “Liddle Kim.” Yep, that’s what changed.

I think there is a possibility that the Chinese, fearful of a crazy and unpredictable US president, have put some pressure on NK to make some changes. I don’t know if it’s likely or not, but I think it’s possible. But even if that’s the case, it’s a stupid and risky policy to use name calling as your primary form of “diplomacy”.

@Chisquirrel

And had the Tangerine Mussolini…

I usually find the nicknames people here give Trump to be more eye-rolling than anything else, but that one made me chuckle. And, it would be an excellent band name to boot!!

[Try2B_Comprehensive]

If Trump & Co. can genuinely de-nuclearize NK and turn it from a starving pariah state into a halfway normal place, I will happily give them credit for the win and accept the “statesman” label for Trump. I will accept “honorable” for Kim Jong Un- heck, I will go so far as “whatta guy!” and invite him over to my place for some brats, let him play with my cat and drink my beer. It would be unequivocally a Good Thing if de-nuclearization occurs.

For now though, it is all a little too early. Let’s wait until we see some results.

[voltaire]

Poor SK President Moon… Dude has to reason and deal with two of the world’s most unreasonable, lying scumbags, and by all appearances, they’re the ones set to get all the credit for being reasonable and making the deal.

[LAZombie]

“National security experts, and even the South Korean foreign minister, are crediting Mr. Trump for bringing North Korea to the table.” My bold.

Trump deserves credit for North-South Korea summit, experts say