Look at it this way, if we follow the popular vote trend then Bush will win Ohio, NM and Iowa.
"It’s not worse than Vietnam" * --The best thing Republicans can say about Iraq.*
Kerry needs 75% of the provisionals to win in Ohio. I would be astonished if he got that.
Don’t forget the popular vote. That mattered a lot when Gore won it by half a million. Bush is up 3 million in the popular vote, which is a pretty good margin in a presidential election.
With the way the Repub headquarters is raisng hell in Ohio I’m about half afraid we might actually wind up with a tie. wouldn’t that be a HELL of a note?
But Kerry has to win Ohio or the best he can hope for is a tie that would go to a Republican House for a decision.
I will be pleased when the commentators are free to discuss the exit polls and the discrepencies. Ron Silver (Silverman?) said that it’s because people lie in exit polls, then went on to describe how celebrities are ashamed of saying that they support Bush. <snort!>
So I guess there are all of these celebrities all over Florida who threw off the exit polls. Why were they all ashamed of supporting Bush? You would think the liars would even out for both sides, but I guess not. :rolleyes:
I’m not faulting the Pubbies on that – just Silver/Silverman’s theory.
10822 of 11477 precincts - 94 percent
George W. Bush (i) Rep 2,639,180 - 51 percent
John F. Kerry Dem 2,532,530 - 49 percent
Michael Badnarik NP 13,673 - 0 percent
Michael Peroutka NP 11,493 - 0 percent
Oh hell … new hampshire just got an upset and went to Kerry
Wasn’t it always going that way?
Minnesota just went to Kerry
Ohio SOS about to speak. If the provisional ballots are less than 150k then it’s all over.
Since when? All we heard from you for the last four years was that the popluar vote didn’t matter, just the EC. Why are you changing your tune now?
no it was supposed to be a Bush state…
I don’t suppose anybody cares, but Hawaii turned out not to be in play after all.
–p
ABC saying only 106k provisionl ballots out there…not enough for Kerry to contest.
First off, I’m not a Republican. Secondly, if you’re looking for me to disagree, you’re wrong. But that was still an idiotic thing to post. You either didn’t read what I was responding to, or you didin’t understand it
Well, it’s a better indicator, so there is something there (I’m not unreasonable), but IME a lot of voters just vote a party line for House, sometimes Senate. It’s more likely that they’ve heard of the people in the Senate race anyway. Assuming Bush wins (I’m assuming that, barring unforeseen future events), then it’s reasonable to expect he pulls some Republican congressmen in with him.
My main point, going back a few pages (maybe I’ll go back like T-Keela and quote myself) is that for the most part this was a slim victory. Not a mandate to further cut taxes or invade more countries. A lot of people voted their religious beliefs, which is certainly they’re right. If Bush continues making mistakes AND the Democrats do a better job of neutralizing the religious advantage, the Dems can make a comeback.
But they’ve got to run more to the center and not to the Left. Find a southern Democrat governor that is also a Baptist and personally abhors abortion. It will help if they can run someone who came into office in a state with deficits and fixed them. Even better if he served in the military during a time that was not the Vietnam war. Better yet if he can claim Hispanic ancestry. Southern can include Southwest, but not Massachusetts. And it’s probably preferable not to have a voting record that can be spun and lied about. A disarming smile wouldn’t hurt.
NH was won by Bush in 2000, but not expected to be carried by him this year
NH was almost always Kerry on electoral-vote.com.
Well, correct me if I’m wrong here, but lets say that there are 250,000 provisional votes left. And lets assume Kerry gets 60% of them (even though he didn’t get 60% of the vote in Ohio). That means Kerry gets 150,000 of those votes and Bush gets 100,000…and doesn’t that mean Bush still wins by 50,000? He’d need to get 70% of those votes to just get equal to Bush…something that seems unlikely, at least to me.
I’m totally drunk here so my math may be faulty…YMMV.
-XT