Now that the conventions are over let's discuss Clinton vs. Trump campaigns

Politics & Elections
1

Speaking - Advantage Trump
Trump just sounds better than Clinton, she is so shrill* and sounds so forced. Trump is long on form with insane content while Clinton is the exact opposite and in America Trump’s oratory style works. Look for Trump to pick up numbers because of the debates.
*It is because of this she has earned the nickname “Queen of the Harpies”

Campaign management - Advantage Clinton
Listening to reporters it is clear that Trump’s side still has no idea how to manage a campaign while Clinton’s side is professional and doing everything right. If Paul Manafort hasn’t figured it out by now he never will.

Commercials - Advantage Trump (assumed)
I haven’t seen any Trump commercials but the one I saw from Clinton was soooooo stupid. It didn’t tell me to vote for Clinton - it told me not to let 6 year olds watch TV unsupervised.

Party support - Advantage Clinton!!
The DNC will pull out all stops to get Clinton elected. She has support from the major Dems. Meanwhile the RNC will do the very minimum to help Trump hoping that somehow he will end up going away before the election.

Voters - Advantage Trump
First let’s ignore the Dems that will always vote Dem and the Pubs that will always vote Pub. The Bernie clusterfuck will disuade the college voters and these are voters that helped Obama win. They will either vote Green or not vote. Meanwhile Trump will pick up the “dissatisfied with status quo” vote. I don’t see Pubs moving to the Libertarian Party simply because of the perception of them being Hippies and there is no independent TeaBagger to siphon off votes.

Election night - Winner Clinton
I predict a very close popular vote with Trump and Clinton within 2 %age points of each other like Clinton < 49%; Trump > 47% and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is within 1 %age point. However the electoral college will not be so kind. Clinton picks up the deep south and carpetbags New York for the Dems. Trump just comes up short across the board.
Approximate EV count: Clinton 400, Trump 134, Faithless Elector (Sanders or Johnson) 1.

2

Could not disagree more.

Clinton is not a great orator. But she is able to speak in complete sentences, stay on topic, connect ideas and convey a thematically complete message.

Trump, on the other hand, can’t co-ordinate synaptic impulses between his two brain cells.

3

I predict a Trump victory. Trump has been a president and CEO, the person in charge and ultimately answerable for the success or failure of his companies. That is a very different thing than being part of a committee or governing body for which you are not the lone person in charge.

Trump understands that the engine powering all of our programs is powered by the economy, and he has extensive experience in optimizing corporate entities. Nothing exposes failures like competition, and Trump has been navigating through competitive environments for decades. He is very far from perfect and says some stupid shit, but he will lead us to a better America, and a better world.

4

I think you just won Corporate Buzzword Bingo!

How does this relate to the election?

5

Does he have experience running political campaigns? Clinton does.

Not to point out the obvious here, but people with lots of business experience but no political experience have a generally dismal record in political campaigns, and a dismal record of governance on the few occasions they are elected.

6

Bullitt, you’ve never read one of Trump’s 10-K’s or 10-Q’s, have you? Over 16 years, his businesses have lost a total of $1.4 billion while paying $2.7 billion in interest expense.

Trump optimizes businesses like Enron optimizes balance sheets.

7

I think Trump is still managing his campaign on a shoestring, and does not have the staff in each state like Hillary and the DNC does. Plus most of the folks who run the RNC in the states are (IMHO. YMMV) probably lifelong Republicans who, like the Bushes and George Will, are less than enthused with their candidate. They’ll work hard for the Congressional and Senate candidates but for Trump..maybe not so much. So unless Donald and his ‘team’ get it cranked up, I suspect that the vote might not be as close as you think. Organization counts.

Oh yeah, look at the ‘weapons’ she can deploy. Obviously President Obama can’t be out on the campaign train much, he has President-things to do, but I bet Michelle will be in great demand to make sure the African-American and women votes come out in November (and what the hell, I’m charmed by her too, and I’m a 64 yo white guy). Add Wild Bill, Bloomberg, and O’Malley, and maybe a Bernie spotting or two (if he decides not to sulk in New England for the next three months) and she will have a formidable team out there on the hustings. And Trump will have…Newt?

I don’t see how the Republicans can match that. And I do think it’ll wear down Trump’s support over the next three months.

We shall see. Eventually.

8

Nope. Have you read these?

Hold Hillary Clinton accountable for her failures
Hillary Clinton Foreign-Policy Failures Destabilized the World
Thomas Sowell: Hillary Clinton has history of failure
Hillary’s Service as Secretary of State: A Failure of Leadership (and a National Security Disaster)

9

Other than the part about victory, you mean?

10

Eisenhower had little political experience, but he was in charge of the Army. He did okay as president.

Reagan had little experience before being governor, and he did okay as governor and beyond.

Leading is a very different thing than following. And running a campaign has little to do with running a country.

11

Notice the pattern here? Bullitt makes a pronouncement about Trump (Business experience). John T rebuts part of it, using evidence-based (I presume that 10-K and 10-Q are documents in public on Trump’s expenses) data that shows that maybe he’s not all that good a businessman. Bullitt, rather than respond to the rebuttal, immediately moves to the "Oh yeah, well Hillary did THIS!!.

Could it be that there is no defending Trump, expect to point out Hillary’s issues. At long last, is that all there is to say in Trump’s defense?

12

No partisanship there. Hey Kool-Aid!

(Btw, it’s usually a good idea to actually link your cites, not that I’d waste the time to read them anyway.)

13

I just now realized that Obama has one hell of a counterpunch ready to go, if the GOP throws a snide quip his way about him being out on the campaign trail while there’s presidentin’ to do: “Thing is, he’s absolutely right; just this afternoon, I was set to review the best candidates for the judiciary, but, well, you know how it is.”

14

Nm

15

And when has THAT ever appealed to Americans?

Even NPR said that there were much better speakers than CLinton at the DNC even though she hit all the points. They said “the energy went out of the room in the middle [of the speech]” and that’s her fucking ACCEPTANCE speech.

16

Following the OP format.

Speaking - Advantage Clinton.

Trump can’t keep his foot out of his mouth. It will take a team of people just to explain what Trump really meant or didn’t mean when he says something stupid every day. Clearly Clinton. This is Trump’s biggest problem. He speaks without thinking. Clinton doesn’t.

Campaign management - Advantage Clinton

Absolutely. Look at the DNC vs the RNC. What a difference.

Commercials - Advantage Clinton

Money will be spent where it’s needed, in battle ground states. I’ve already seen the commercial where Trump is being a jerk and kids are watching, and the final caption is something like “the kids are watching.” Powerful.

Party support - Advantage Clinton!!

Agreed. Way more than Trump. Way more. Much of Trumps support is from those supporting the party, not the man.

Voters - Advantage Clinton.

Trump has lost the minority vote, the Muslim voters, many of the women & the college educated, and anyone with common sense for that matter. He continues to do strong with the lower IQ white male voters who blame their failures on the system.
Election night - Winner Clinton
Yep.

Approximate EV count: Clinton 320, Trump 190 +/-, Clinton’s solid blue state EV count is now 246. She needs 24 more to reach 270. She probably has Oregon, Ohio and Michigan, (7, 18, 16) for a total of 287. Florida (29) and New Hampshire (4) are battleground states now. Add 33 more to the 287 if you like, but 270 did it. Then there’s Nevada and Iowa, (6 and 6) but not really worth spending too much time or money there. If I were a Clinton staffer, I’d be hitting Florida really hard. Florida plus her solid blue states would win it for her even without those states already leaning blue.

For Trump to win, he’s got to turn some solid blue states red. He can’t do that.

People look at polls and think Trump is close. What people need to do is look at thepolls with respect to the EV count. Then, it’s not really close.

17

Eisenhower was in charge of getting diverse elements of the alliance to work together - much more of a political role than an actual battle commander like Patton or Montgomery. Pretty good training.

Reagan did have experience as the president of SAG, so he also understood how to convince people to do what needed to be done. And then of course the governor experience was valuable when he went for President.

18

Disagree. I think anytime a female makes her voice heard people immediately label her a Harpy. Pelosi.. harpy, Fiorina.. harpy, Warren.. harpy. Clinton to me is far from “shrill”. It’s just a female voice. Get over it.
I’d listen to her any day over Trump. I think Trump fans are the same people that made it past season 1 of The Apprentice. You’d think people would tire real fast of a windbag going on and on and on about himself and all his success and money and posing on a reality show as some kind of know-it-all. Apparently not. Maybe a Kanye West / Chris Jenner ticket is in order for 2020? They too are famous, great, successful, geniuses. Just ask them.
Hint: When the only person promoting someone’s success, achievements, and greatness is that person themselves, run the other way.

19

I disagree. Trump has the vibe of an old man who rants at kids to get off his lawn. Angry and out of touch. Clinton gives me the vibe of a medical doctor–she tells you the diagnosis and then the treatment course. Maybe a little arrogant, but not unjustly so.

Clinton will easily win the college-educated population by a large margin because Trump’s message is targeting uneducated whites. Former Sanders voters will be vocal, but they know that four years going backwards is much worse then four years making slow progress.

I think Johnson is going to peal off enough votes from Trump to give a state or two to Clinton. Ohio, for example.

20

This makes no sense to me. You personally saw ONE commercial for Clinton and personally did not like it. That’s it. You cannot form an opinion based on that.