This is something I was thinking about last night while watching some of the coverage of Super Tuesday.
Obama has turned a lot of people onto politics of that there is no doubt. Young people in particular seem to be more existed and engaged than they have for generations. From what I can see from voter turn out etc. lots and lots of people have signed up just to vote for Obama.
Can this remain if Obama doesn’t make it. Will a lot of the people currently willing to campaign or just even vote for the man become disillusioned as quick as they became excited when their hopes are dashed.
IMO the most important thing is that a Dem wins in Nov. I’d love it to be Obama but if it’s Clinton then so be it. I fear that this is in risk because of what I talk about above.
Clinton has lots of other problems with a lot of voters to overcome but this will not help her.
I feel pretty much the same as you, that the enthusiasm the young have for the political process is a mile wide and an inch deep, and that once Obama is out, it’s going to evaporate like it was never there.
I think so. A similar thing happened a few years ago with Howard Dean. At least the sudden lack of enthusiam was noticable on the campus I was on at the time.
I don’t totally agree with your assertions. I think young peole are getting involved because young people like what they see in Obama as a candidate. Georgetown University and Yale have two of the biggest university government groups in the country out voting for Obama. They are not voting for him solely because he is charismatic, they are out there in my opinion because he holds an ideal close to his heart that these kids aren’t used to seeing in a politician. A reletively clean campaign.
That being said, Obama showed people one thing yesterday - that he has the resolve to garner HUGE numbers of votes from a diverse crossection of this country. My sense is the young people are enpowered by Obama - I saw him in Hartford and this 30-something was empowered by the man too. I’m a well educated bloke - and I am not holding any illusions as to what he is and isn’t capable of.
I Personally think if Obama plays his cards right he will march on Ohio, PA, TX and continue to show people he is worth the presidency.
If he doesn’t make it, yes some will be saddened, and some will not vote for Hilarity in November, others will be optimistic that there are still candidates out there worth voting for. I tell the people I campaign with that yesterday was not a loss, because simply it wasn’t, but moreover it showed that Obama can rally people, and delegates. If Clinton had a 200+ delegate lead I’d be causiously optimistic, but she doesn’t so I remain happily opimistic about his campaign.
I suspect that if Obama loses, some young voters will defect to McCain and some will stay home. McCain and Obama, though very different politically, at least appear to have the character and integrity that people are hungering for. I disagree with many of McCain’s policies and personally wouldn’t vote for him, but he seems more honest than Clinton. There are a lot of folks who would rather have an honest man with whom they disagree in the White House than another sleazy Clinton presidency.
I think young people get excited about someone who seems genuinely passionate and principled, committed to change, and not part of the old guard. They came out for Dean, they are coming out for Obama, and as long as the Democrats keep bringing candidates like that, the young will keep coming out. Of course, they quickly get disillusioned when a party apparatchik like Hilary Clinton gets the nod; then it just seems like the old guard maintaining the status quo, and they drop out until the next time. But who can blame them? I feel about Clinton the same way I felt about Bush in 2000–I could see why someone would vote for him, but I could never understand how anyone could get *excited * about him. Clinton represents cynicism and opportunism; in the eyes of young voters, people like Dean and Obama represent the opposite.
For the past few elections, the young have been the youngest members of generation X. Now, we have a significant number of millennials in the mix. Strauss & Howe’s generational theory doesn’t directly address elections, but based on what it does say, it seems likely that we’ll see a higher voter turnout among young people this election than in the last couple.
Clinton wins, I don’t move back to America, Obama wins, and I come home. I left when Bush got elected… fingers crossed for Obama as I want to come home.
From a voting perspective, if I can vote for Obama I will. If he doesn’t get the nomination I will vote third party… Libertarian most likely.
I think the enthusiasm for the electoral process will wane slightly, but I would like to give the youth of today just a little more credit. I think they will realize what’s at stake, and pull the lever for Hillary. Bonus hijack to sell Hillary: the horror of more Republican Supreme Court appointees. In John Dean’s latest book, he opines that the current SCOTUS may be gearing up for a return to the old-fashioned view that the Constitution only refers to the Federal government, not the states. So, states could restrict free speech, establish state religions, etc. Just something to consider.
McCain’s more honest than Hillary? They all bullshit, pander, and claim to be an outsider. It’s like “going negative”: everyone complains about it, but the voters buy it every time. I don’t wanna be rallied and inspired, as is Obama’s style. I want a hardcore policy wonk that can get results. That’s why Hillary’s my girl.
I saw the youth vote very energized in 2004. They wanted GWB booted OUT. The turnout was impressive.
They were very demoralized and frustrated with the outcome of that election but they’re back.
I think today’s youth are more politically savvy and involved than folks of that age have been since the half-generation before me went clean for Gene and marched in the streets of Chicago. They won’t be happy if Obama doesn’t win but I don’t think they’ll go away.
So what’s at stake in McCain vs Hillary? Hillary isn’t going to be running against George Bush.
And I agree that a large fraction of today’s Obama supporters will probably end up pulling the lever for Clinton. But that’s only if they show up.
I honestly think Hillary’s Karl Rove-style campaign is going to depress her turnout significantly. We’re sick of Karl Rove, are we really going to vote for a third term of Rovism?
I pretty much agree with that. A lot of young folks seem to need something to stir them passionately to get out and vote. If that passion is gone, too many will think it just doesn’t matter. If it’s McCain vs Hillary, that actually won’t be too far from the truth…
I’m young. Besides 2006, this is the first major election I’m qualified to vote in, as I missed 2004 by about a year. And I have to say, I don’t think I could vote for Clinton or McCain. We don’t really need to go over why I don’t like Clinton, but for McCain, I would have voted for him in 2004. Except now I see him as lapdog to the Neocons. I never doubted how conservative he was, but he used to seem more independent, where his judgment alone was the final say in his policies. But after the 2004 election, and the subsequent sucking of the teat he has done, I couldn’t stomach voting for him either.
I’ll probably vote for the NC Governor, however. Just would leave Presidential blank.
McCain has a very strong chance of beating Hillary but would likely lose to Obama. The young might not be excited about voting for Hillary, and a lot of Republicans will come out to vote against Hillary but not for McCain.
That’s a great reason to vote for a Republican candidate then. States rights is one of the most important issues. I look forward to the decriminalized marijuana in New York, and I’ll make sure not to go to South Dakota for my abortions.
Unfortunately the Republican choice is senile and unprincipled McCain. I couldn’t believe in the debate how much he tried to push a flat out lie against Romney only to be shown by Anderson Cooper that Romney was precise and on point and McCain was flat out lying. That moment right there turned me against McCain.
I really want Obama to win, but I’ll vote for Hillary just for two reasons. To break the hymen on the woman president, and because she’s not too old for the office like McCain is. I don’t like the compulsory health care and other such tendencies she has, but I don’t like McCain either.
Yeah, exactly. When I first registered Republican it was to vote against Bob Dole, and I stayed Republican to vote for John McCain. I have some affinity with his Goldwater Republican roots, but he just caved with Bush. He now comes across as shrill and used up, a nasty old man, who is getting what he wants too little too late. Disgusting.
Of all the current candidates, I think Obama has easily the best chance of being president later if he does not win in 2008. For whatever that’s worth.