Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South
Barack Hussein Osama, a black man, admitted cocaine and marijuana user, and former student of a muslim school in Indonesia (where he lived as a child). Lacks political experience.
His only chance is if the public becomes much less susceptible to attack ads (not likely). In addition, the lack of experience is a real problem. My guess (and suggestion) is that a charismatic governor gets the nod.
Arnold Schwarzenegger was a steroids popper who fondled women and smoked marijuana. I wouldn’t be surprised to find out he did cocaine at some point, either. He also happens to be a charismatic governer.
Inelligable though. Guess he needed the muslim schooling.
What is Obama’s position on the death penalty? I seem to remember that he’s opposed, but I’m not sure if I got that right. I think it’s a very big stumbling block for a Democrat to win the presidency if he or she is opposed to the death penalty.
Fondling women is a plus (proves he isn’t gay or into kids). Marijuana for a white guy is a nonissue. If he was eligible he would have a pretty good chance.
I think either of them could win. As far as the issue of Obama’s newness goes- the public will know him plenty well in a year, when the actual primaries start.
I’m not responding to you specifically here, but we’ve heard many Dopers say this. I lean the other way: I’m uncomfortable with the idea of “wait a few years.” There will always be bigotry, so you can either wait for it to fade or push ahead. Playing down to people’s prejudices doesn’t make them better. Clinton and Obama (and Richardson and everyone else) should be judged on their merits as candidates, and that’s it.
If Obama is against the DP, I think he’ll be able to neutralize it in the same way Tim Kaine did in the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial election.
If a Dem can win Virginia while being anti-DP, then a Dem can win an electoral majority while being anti-DP.
I should have added, in particular, a Dem like Obama can do so. As with Kaine, voters are familiar (or will be, by 2008) with the genuineness and depth of Obama’s religious convictions.
Maybe. Wanna risk 8 years of the presidency on it? 
Exactly what Revtim said- maybe, but do Democrats want to take that chance? I say don’t risk it.
The national tide is definitely moving against the death penalty right now.
We’re certainly farther down the road towards racial tolerance than we were, say, 40 years ago, but it’s been three steps forward and two steps back all along the way. The Presidency is uniquely prominent, powerful and important; I just can’t see either Obama or Clinton pulling it off. The nomination, quite possibly. The White House? No, not yet.
It is? What evidence leads you to that conclusion? Sure, it’s been suspended in one or two states, but that hardly amounts to a change in attitude. People might want to fix some of the problems with it, but they don’t want to eliminate it.
Remember Kerry had to amend his anti-death penalty stance to exempt “terrorists”? Gotta be tough when it comes to “terrorists” at least.
I count six states, (and twelve states don’t have it at all), but I’m looking at some surveys online (like this one) and getting mixed signals. Not a lot of people want it abolish, but the public seems evenly split on the question of death penalty vs. life in prison with no parole, and they’re not convinced capital punishment deters murder.
I think the US could elect a woman. I just don’t think Hillary is that woman. Her problem is not that she’s female, but that she will be perceived to be yet another “Northeastern liberal” trotted out by the Democratic establishment. (The key word there being “perceived.” Whether she is actually a liberal or not won’t matter to swing voters who can’t be bothered to research her voting record.)
Hillary also fails the “beer test.” Again, nothing to do with her being a woman.
If Hillary is nominated, she’ll win at best the same states Kerry won. At best. Likely fewer.
I believe Obama could win. I believe he could surprise folks by taking a few Southern states and border states. (Maybe Arkansas, maybe Louisiana, maybe Florida, maybe Missouri.) How? By generating a larger-than-average turnout among black voters. That could be enough to turn the tide in states where the election is close. Moreover, if Giuliani is the Republican nominee, well, it’s not like conservative Southerners are going to flock to the polls for him.
Obama is an inspirational speaker. Having survived Harvard law school I expect him to be a sharp debater. And he passes the “beer test,” which, like it or not, is a prerequisite to winning swing voters.
I would vote for either if they win the nomination, but I think with Hillary my vote would be more of a forlorn hope.
Obama wins (in a tight race), Hillary Clinton loses, IMO.
I think Edwards or Gore would be a safer pick than either Hillary or Obama (and would do better in the general election), but I find Obama to be a more inspirational choice.
The signals aren’t mixed. When Americans are asked if they favor the death penalty, they say they do by at least a 2-1 margin, across many different polls. Asking them if they approve of it for a particular crime is too ambiguous. Murder can have extenuating circumstances, so it’s not surprising that people are more hesitant to say they favor the death penalty in that general case. You’d get an entirely different result, I’m sure, if you asked what punishment should be given to people who rape and murder young children.
Yes.
There are people I’d rather have in the Oval Office than Obama. But I have absolutely no reservations about him as a candidate.
You have a very strong point, and I’ll go one step further: not only does my attitude play down to people’s prejudices, it helps reinforce them and aids discrimination. To be honest, if someone were to call me a coward for not wanting Clinton or Obama to be nominated because of my fears of racism and/or sexism, I’m not sure I’d have a good defense.
Obama win? Not a chance. “Wrong” color and a name that is too “Arab” sounding. Obama, Osama - same to a lot of Americans. Throw in some mud about his parents possibly being Muslim and he’s finished.
I think that’s completely untrue. The color issue will certainly be an issue in race-conscious America, but to his benefit: folks with low-level racism (or mid-level racism) will be delighted to have a black man they can support, because supporting a black man proves they’re not racist. Only the out-and-out Klansmen will explicitly deny their vote to a black man, and there’s not too many of them around. I expect that Obama will get called “articulate” a lot more than he would if he were white, but the racism that will matter for him will be the surprise white folks feel at how smart a black man can be, not discomfort with voting for a black man.
His name is Arab sounding? Pah: Obama is smart enough to poke fun at that and make any attempts to use this as an argument look ridiculous. Reagan’s name sounded like Marvin the Martian’s handgun, and nobody tried to turn that into a campaign issue; Bill Clinton got called Bill of Goods Clinton or Wet Willy Clinton or a dozen other idiotic names, and he still won majorities. As dumb as political campaigns can be, making fun of the opponent’s name is not a winning strategy.
And I expect him to make some hay about any Islam in his heritage, because the current strategy in the middle East sucks, and getting someone in power with some street cred on the Islamic street would be fantastic. At the same time, he’s not Muslim himself, and attempts to “smear” him as Muslim will look as stupid as attempts to smear him for having a Muslim name.
Keep in mind that Obama is a savvy guy and a magnificent orator, in both extemporaneous and prepared appearances. He’s not likely to bungle things like Gore or Bush; he’s likely to handle questions in a funny, relaxed, intelligent way. And he’s not shown signs of being sleazy like Clinton (Bill, not Hillary): his similar style of rhetoric is not going to ring as false as Bill’s did.
Hillary runs into the difficulty of an unfair reputation. I don’t think she’s got a chance unless by next January she can completely overhaul her reputation as a coldhearted calculator.
Hillary’s ticket would be improved by Barack in the veep slot: her campaign will strongly benefit from a dose of inspirational leadership and a sense of honesty. Barack’s would be hurt by Hillary in the veep slot: if he gets the nomination, he ought to be looking to an experienced, popular Democratic governor from the South or West to round out the ticket.
Daniel