Not only that, as I have been educated on recently, the 50-state strategy, as promulgated by Howard Dean as Chairman of the DNC and now being instituted by the Obama campaign, will go a long way toward building the Democratic party in general for its long term future and strength for all levels of elections even after November. Stay with it.
My thoughts, as well, and I’m a definite Obama supporter.
Not only that, but Rasmussan was a guest on Hugh Hewitt today, and said that Obama’s miniscule bump of 6% had already eroded to 3% nationally.
The Rasmussen bump was 12%, not 6%. He went from 6 behind to 6 ahead and stayed there for about a week. That has now tapered slightly, but not yet statistically significantly. He also leads in every other poll, not just nationally, but electorially.
ETA, his lead today is by 4, not 3.
Also, Hugh Hewitt is a humongous douchebag.
Well, if his lead is eroding, that’s gotta be a good thing, right? 
As long as it’s a lead, the margin doesn’t really matter.
I expect the numbers to be fairly static during these dog days before the Conventions. Obama isn’t going to surge, but he isn’t going to sink much either. I think he’ll keep a slight lead though the summer, get a huge bounce after the Democratic Convention and then for McCain to get a bounce (probably smaller than Obama’s) after the Pubfest in St. Paul, and in september we’ll probably be right about back where we are right now with Obama holding a small but consistent lead. I really think it’s Obama’s to lose right now. McCain can’t really do anything to take it from him, BHO can only screw himself (and I don’t think he will).
This isn’t hubris on my part. I’m a pessimist. I assumed that Kerry would lose. I just think the pendulum is going the other way this time.
I predict Obama wins California and New York.
Damn. I coulda sworn you said he was peaking too early. (Post #3.) Now you’re saying you can’t tell whether he’s peaking except in retrospect.
You mind if I step out of the way while you duke it out with yourself? I’ll be back when there’s a winner.
The polls are interesting, but it’s way too early for them to have any predictive value. Personally I don’t expect Obama to win Florida, and my projection gives him a win without Pennsylvania too - and he’d still win it without Ohio. I think he wins pretty easily if he gets one of the three, and if he gets two I think the rout is on.
What he said.
Honestly, I don’t see why these polls would matter to anyone who isn’t running Obama’s or McCain’s campaign. Will they influence who you think will be a better president? Will they change your vote at all? Unless you’re in charge of deciding how much money and time your candidate should spend in a given state, these polls should not be that interesting.
And I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict that Obama takes Illinois. 
I’m thinking that he looses Texas - I know - its a limb I’m going out on…
I hereby state unequivocally and unambiguously that Obama will not win Alberta.
You heard it here first.
Can we let Ontario vote?
Your right. And the standings in the baseball leagues are uninteresting as well. :rolleyes:
Dangerosa, Obviously Obama winning Texas is a longshot proposition, but I do not think it is impossible. I can see a few paths to making it “in play” before the race is over. We’ll see.
If you’re ahead after the second inning, you don’t stop trying for the next seven.
Figuring out the difference between MLB standings in the middle of a season and political polls is left as an exercise for the reader.
Well, until the Designated Hitter and regular season interleague play are relegated to the ash heap of history where they belong, baseball standings are uninteresting.
I’m actually kind of curious what will happen with Arizona. Latest poll I could dig up had McCain 50%, Obama 39%. Still a win for McCain, but them’s awful close for his home state. I figure he’ll still take it in the election, but it’ll be interesting to see how close Obama can make it.
I think he’ll do with polls what he did with superdelegates. The advantage will build slowly over time, inching inexorably upward through the election.