I also wouldn’t get too complacent or excited because of a poll tick one way or the other. Honestly this bump is if anything quite modest given the excitement and the media buzz over his finally officially becoming the “presumptive” nominee and Hillary’s solid concession/endorsement speech. He’ll get another bump during the Democratic convention and lose it some during Republican one. The popular vote is close, neither is over 50%, and November is a long long way away.
I think that he’ll win and win big, I really do, and I’d think that even if the current polling was reversed.
This poll isn’t even as meaningful as have a decent first kick-off return in a Super Bowl game. Sure, it is a decent start, but it doesn’t define the game by a long shot.
I hope to see Mr. Obama elected POTUS, but guys, I don’t like this over-the-top optimism! It’s not going to be a walkover. Mr. McCain isn’t appealing, but he’s a Republican and a white man, and those two facts matter to many millions of people. He will look “safe” to a huge number of people. Safe as in “tried and true” and safe as in “not new and exciting”. Not everyone likes new and exciting. Many people are afraid of the enthusiasm Mr. Obama generates. Some are sickened by it - some prefer tired cynicism.
Sorry for the little grandmotherly lecture, but I guess I’m worried that over-confidence is a bad thing.
Moderator’s Note: Anyone who called other SDMB posters “bigots and idiots” in Great Debates would get a warning for personal insults outside the BBQ Pit…fortunately that doesn’t include anyone in this thread–right?
Obama did not perform especially well in debates during the Dem primary.
Point 1, I am afraid to say, might matter more than people want to believe it will. There are a lot of people out there who think Obama is a “muzzlim” and/or an uppity nigger (a nasty word, but there is no better way to describe that mindset) and - especially with regards to his allegedly being a “muzzlim,” can be pulled to the polls with scare tactics. Like it or not, McCain has a huge advantage in being a white male. White males have a long winning streak going.
Point 2 is just the nature of politics. Who wouldn’t guessed that in 2004, the guy who was actually a war hero would be smeared for his war record, while the draft dodger wouldn’t?
Point 3 should also not be discounted. TV debates are absurdly influential in elections, far more than they really should be, and Obama wasn’t all that hot in the Dem debates. He does very well in front of a friendly crowd, but under hostile examination he didn’t look nearly as polished. He’s smart as hell, and I’d bet dollars to dimes he’s already working on that weakness. But some people do better in debates than others, and that could be a vulnerability.
I see today that Grandpa McCain’s response to Obama’s economic speech was to once again push for a gas-tax holiday, arguing that it will help working families. This clearly demonstrates that McCain was correct when he admitted that he knew almost nothing about economics.
Obama didn’t do that badly in the debates and he got stronger with experience. The truth is not that Obama was bad in the debates but that Hillary was better. It’s one of things she is genuinely good at. She’s smart, she’s prepared, she knows her shit. It took BHO a while to get his sea legs with her, but he got them and he did ok in the one on ones. McCain will be a much easier opponent for him (and he won’t have to measure himself as much as he did with Hillary). He’ll also have much better ammunition on the issues against McCain than he did against Hillary. Bush is an albatross around McCain’s neck that will make things easy for Obama.
Obama should actually take a page from Hillary regarding debates and know his shit, know his shit, know his shit. Remember that debate where they tried to sandbag her with that Medvdev question? It didn’t work because she knew it. Barack has to be just as prepared.
Of course he is. For one thing, he wants to repeal the Bush tax cuts on the rich, and leave the ones on the poor and middle class. This will make the tax system more progressive. But of course, you can claim this isn’t a ‘new’ tax on the rich. So…
He also plans to double the capital gains tax. That will predominantly hurt the investor class. He even admits that this may not raise revenue (revenues went up after the last two capital gains tax cuts), but will be done out of ‘fairness’.
But the biggest tax hike on the rich is his plan to get rid of the $97,000 cap on Social Security taxes, and institute a flat 12.7% social security tax on all income over $97,000 (in addition to all other current taxes). This is a HUGE tax increase - over 100 billion dollars a year, and it comes straight from everyone making over $97,000 per year. And it turns Social Security into a welfare program - the logic behind the current cap is that since benefits are capped, and since it’s supposed to be a user-pay savings program, the tax should be capped. By eliminating the tax cap but leaving the benefits capped, Obama will turn it into a wealth transfer program from the rich to the middle class and poor.
For those who still think there’s anything Goldwateresque about Barack Obama’s economic plan, you might read his web site: Barack Obama Issues - The Economy
Here’s some of the things he plans to do:
[ul]
[li]Make it illegal to permanently fire striking workers[/li][li]Raise the minimum wage to $9.50 by 2011[/li][li]Demand that 25% of all energy be from renewable sources by 2025. In Obama-speak, this ‘creates jobs’.[/li][li]Support ‘fair trade’ instead of ‘free trade’. Trade will be contingent on 3rd world countries adopting 1st world labor and environmental standards[/li][li]Renegotiate NAFTA to make it better for American workers.[/li][li]‘Invest in Manufacturing’. Obama’s idea of ‘investing in manufacturing’ is to force manufacturers to adhere to Obama’s environmental plan, then give them money to train people to do it. In his fantasy land, this ‘creates jobs’.[/li][li]Use government money to convince people to retrain in ‘green’ energy technologies.[/li][li]Give all workers the right to unionize, and prevent employers from taking measures to stop them. Couple that with his plan to prevent employers from permanently firing union employees, and you’ve set the stage for labor to begin to increase in power both in overall scope and within companies, as it has in Europe. [/li][/ul]
And from other areas of the web site:
[ul]
[li]Remove the $97,500 cap on Social Security Taxes.[/li][li]Double the capital gains tax.[/li][li]Tax corporate ‘windfall profits’.[/li][li]Massively intrude on the health care industry.[/li]
[li]“Our communities will better serve all of their residents if we are able to leave our cars, to walk, bicycle and access other transportation alternatives. As president, Barack Obama will re-evaluate the transportation funding process to ensure that smart growth considerations are taken into account.” [/li][li]“Obama also favors commonsense measures that respect the Second Amendment rights of gun owners, while keeping guns away from children and from criminals who shouldn’t have them. He supports closing the gun show loophole and making guns in this country childproof. He also supports making the expired federal Assault Weapons Ban permanent, as such weapons belong on foreign battlefields and not on our streets.”[/li][li]“Obama will strengthen federal hate crimes legislation, expand hate crimes protection by passing the Matthew Shepherd Act, and reinvigorate enforcement at the Department of Justice’s Criminal Section.”[/li][li]“Obama will set a goal that all middle and high school students do 50 hours of community service a year.” WTF?[/li][li]“Obama will establish a new American Opportunity Tax Credit that is worth $4,000 a year in exchange for 100 hours of public service a year.” Sounds to me like a guaranteed summer job which pays $40/hr, for all students who want one. That will be fun.[/li][li]He wants the federal government to build ‘thousands of affordable housing units’ each year in cities across the U.S.[/ul][/li]
Yep, a regular Milton Friedman, he is.
The ones in quotes are direct quotes from his web site. The others are fair summations of what he wants to do, with my more tendentious commentary added after the fact on a few.
[ul]
[li]Make it illegal to permanently fire striking workers I Approve[/li][li]Raise the minimum wage to $9.50 by 2011I Approve[/li][li]Demand that 25% of all energy be from renewable sources by 2025. I Approve Greatly[/li][li]Support ‘fair trade’ instead of ‘free trade’. I Approve Greatly[/li][li]Renegotiate NAFTA to make it better for American workers.I Don’t care[/li][li]‘Invest in Manufacturing’. I Approve[/li][li]Use government money to convince people to retrain in ‘green’ energy technologies.I Approve Greatly[/li][li]Give all workers the right to unionize, and prevent employers from taking measures to stop them. I Approve[/li][li]Remove the $97,500 cap on Social Security Taxes.I Approve[/li][li]Double the capital gains tax.I Approve[/li][li]Tax corporate ‘windfall profits’.I Approve[/li][li]Massively intrude on the health care industry.I Approve[/li] [li]“Our communities will better serve all of their residents if we are able to leave our cars, to walk, bicycle and access other transportation alternatives. As president, Barack Obama will re-evaluate the transportation funding process to ensure that smart growth considerations are taken into account.” I Approve Greatly[/li][li]"Obama also favors commonsense measures that respect the Second Amendment rights of gun owners, while keeping guns away from children and from criminals who shouldn’t have them. He supports closing the gun show loophole and making guns in this country childproof. He also supports making the expired federal Assault Weapons Ban permanent, as such weapons belong on foreign battlefields and not on our streets."I’m on the Fence Leaning To Disapproval- But were I American, this wouldn’t put me off Obama[/li][li]"Obama will strengthen federal hate crimes legislation, expand hate crimes protection by passing the Matthew Shepherd Act, and reinvigorate enforcement at the Department of Justice’s Criminal Section."I Approve[/li][li]“Obama will set a goal that all middle and high school students do 50 hours of community service a year.” I Approve[/li][li]"Obama will establish a new American Opportunity Tax Credit that is worth $4,000 a year in exchange for 100 hours of public service a year."I Approve, although I’d make the amount equal to minimum wage for hours worked instead - 100 hours isn’t much[/li][li]He wants the federal government to build ‘thousands of affordable housing units’ each year in cities across the U.S.I Approve - such a program is in effect here, and it’s made a difference already. Spent a day helping to build (well, paint, actually) such houses last month.[/li][/ul]
So, only one thing there I’m kind of down on. If the US doesn’t want him, can we have him?
MrDibble, I had the same reaction you did - I thought for a second that Sam Stone was campaigning for Obama. I promise to think of you when I cast my vote!
Wow, you found tidbits! Very impressive. If in the future I treat your posts in the way you treat Obama’s — picking out a few phrases to paraphrase editorially as I see fit — you will forgive me.
Just so you know, Obama isn’t running for president of Libertaria. If a corporation is to be assigned the rights of an individual, then it should be treated as one. If workers can’t dissolve the corporation, it’s only fair that the officers can’t dissolve unions.
Bush already set it to rise to $7.25 by 2009, an increase of 29% Obama is raising it only 23%. But as you surely know anyway, so long as there is a minimum wage, it really doesn’t matter how much it is.
I think you tried to get two for one with this one.
That’s not true either. He says that professional people, like nurses, shouldn’t be called “supervisors” just to deny them the right to organize.
Your reckless paraphrase is misinformed, I’m afraid. The cap is actually already $102,000, and is tied to the average wage index in perpetuity. Lifting the cap altogether would result in people making over $20 million a year paying 2.7%, which has the net effect of eliminating Bush’s 2.7% tax cuts for that income group. In any case, his website does not say what you say it says. I says only that he would raise the cap, not lift it. If you had actually cited your claims, responding to them would have been easier, but then maybe that was the plan.
Two times fifteen is not twenty-eight. In any case, he would reset it to the same level that Clinton had it during his boom economy.
Not all corporations are oil companies.
How government could possibly be more intrusive on the health care industry is a mystery. If it took it over altogether, there would be one less intrusive entity.
I seem to recall debates in which you’ve not minded zoning laws.
And where do you draw the line, if at all? May I have an ICBM? If not, why not?
Why would this matter to Milton Friedman?
What’s wrong with “getting practical experience in fast-growing career fields”? Instead of dodging bullets and running drugs, young people will be learning while they improve their communities by doing things like “weatherizing buildings”.
A grant is better?
Asbestos infested trailers are better?
The existence of a free market does not of course eliminate the need for government. On the contrary, government is essential both as a forum for determining the “rule of the game” and as an umpire to interpret and enforce the rules decided on.
Milton Friedman, The Relation Between Economic Freedom and Political Freedom
In this morning’s news, Obama is establishing an executive level office that will work full time to fight virulent Internet rumors, glurge, and spam. Once again, he demonstrates that he’s contemporarily savvy. The Republicans are fucking up if they believe that Obama will fall over like John Kerry.
