This is another excellent point. You’re not going to get the same type of frenzy this year. Same sex marriage has not just been legalized in Massachussetts. Janet Jackson’s breast wasn’t shown during the Super Bowl. You’re not going to get the “Vote for McCain, vote for God.” type dedication as the evangelicals had in 2004. Too many Republican sex scandals and the Schiavo debacle have taken the winds out of their sails.
One thing that concerns me is this core of elderly white voters who keep voting for Hillary. It happened again in Wisconsin. Makes me wonder if there might be some generational racism at work. If so, would those voters go with Obama in the general election, or would they slide over to McCain?
Whether blue staters will pull the lever for a black remains to be seen. I fear bigotry is more pronounced than most people apparently do. I am still a skeptic.
I have no trouble voting for him. I expect to. McCain is a war monger and I have seen enough. He has to explain 100 years of war.
I hope Obama wins but I am unsure.
:rolleyes: Have you been keeping up with current events?? When is this supposed American bigotry supposed to kick in exactly? AFTER Obama gets the nomination? Look at the numbers of people voting for the man (not the percentages the actual numbers) and compare and contrast that with the numbers of voters voting for McCain. Good grief man…look at the friggin numbers! One would think that in actuality American’s are prejudiced against old white guys…
-XT
There is considerable time to arm-twist, threaten, plead, buy, promise, etc., between the last Democratic primary in early June and the Democratic convention in late August. It ain’t over until the fat lady sings, and Hillary will do whatever her ego takes to ensure she sings her aria acceptance speech at the convention.
Take a look at the results in Washington for the Republicans, with 57% of the precincts reporting:
McCain: 49%
Huckabee: 22%
Romney: 20%
Paul: 7%
Romney isn’t even a candidate any more, yet he took nearly half as many votes as McCain. Between them, the two candidates positioned as social conservatives got nearly as many votes as McCain.
Now, maybe Washington is an outlier; certainly it wasn’t nearly so close in Michigan; but results like that suggest McCain has some real problems holding onto his base. Without the long-loathed Hillary to galvanize them, he can’t count on a massive turnout from that segment of the party.
Exactly. Thanks for the cite btw.
-XT
I’m honestly interested in how you arrived at that conclusion. In 2000, it was true; today, it’s completely false. McCain has recanted nearly every position he said he held, and realigned himself in Bush’s image. He’s now pandering to the religious right that he once eschewed, he’s recanted on his own immigration reform proposal, he’s recanted his criticism of the war; I can’t honestly think of any issues he hasn’t reversed himself on.
And since Bush backed a reasonable immigration reform plan, McCain is more far right than Bush. I suspect his praise of Bush is going to come back and haunt him.
My take is Obama will wipe the floor with McCain…and just barely eke out a win.
Face it, Obama is not a great debater. However, a wall could out-debate McCain, so Obama wins there.
Obama will continue exhibiting his formidable oratory prowess to great effect, and get even more Republicans to switch over to him. However, if there’s one thing the republican party and their surrogates know how to do is fight and fight dirty. I predict much digging into Obama’s personal life to dig up skeletons, and manufacturing a few if none are found. After all, it doesn’t have to be true to be believed, especially by folks who may be predisposed to believing anything that confirms a negative stereotype, and especially about a Black man.
…speaking of Black men, Obama is one. There are many people, even democrats, who will not vote for a Black man no matter what. I know. I work with quite a few. As an aside, to many where I work, that Obama has gotten as far as he has is not only unbelievable, but fear evoking. And I’m not talking about folks from Appalachia here. Most of my coworkers and business associates have advanced degrees and are respected in my industry, not that educated people can’t be racist, but a higher number than I would consider average find the continuing and seemingly increasing Obama phenomena disturbingly inexplicable.
Bottom line is I believe Obama will probably be the next POTUS, which is more than I believed a short six months ago, and which I expressed then on this very board, but I don’t believe it’ll be anything like a landslide.
I think the idea that McCain is disliked by the right wing is somewhat overstated. He managed to beat Romney almost as easily as he did the liberal Republican Giuliani and the most socially conservative candidate, Huckabee.
Hmn. You do recollect, do you not, that Clinton did not get a majority of the popular vote in his re-election bid either?
Not to mention more than a few threads predicting a Kerry landslide a few years before that.
This campaign hasn’t even started yet.
Yes, yes - I know the Usual Suspects are going to howl with outrage at the idea that McCain is actually going to try to win against Obama. And I have no doubt that the very first campaign ad McCain runs that suggests that Obama is not God’s younger son will be met with screams of “MCCAINLIEDBADEVILRACISTHATEMONGERBURNHIMWORSETHANBUSHIRAQ!!!” and so forth. But it’s gonna happen nonetheless.
What counts is how it plays in Peoria, among the center. Whoever the Dems pick would get at least 80% support on the SDMB no matter what. That is not necessarily true out in the real world.
Regards,
Shodan
He managed to win, to be sure…but I see a very vocal minority of the right wingers who seem VERY opposed to McCain. YMMV, but I think it would take a fully unified Republican party shoulder to shoulder behind McCain for him to even have a chance…and I’m not seeing that shoulder to shoulder commitment from the social conservative right wing faction (among others).
No…I didn’t recall that. You are saying Clinton didn’t win the popular vote in his re-election bid? Not that I doubt you here but I didn’t know that…do you have a cite?
If it was a bad example then how about Reagan in his re-election bid? I expect Obama to do that well.
-XT
Clinton took 49.2%, Perot took 8%.
Oh…that’s right. I had forgotten Perot ran again in '96. Sorry…
ETA: But Dole only got like 41% IIRC…so it wasn’t really very close even if he didn’t win the popular vote. The popular vote being pretty much meaningless anyway since we don’t use a popular vote system to elect presidents.
-XT
Obama, by quite a bit, at least in the EC. With him on the ballot I’m pretty sure Colorado and Virginia turn blue. Ohio would turn blue with either him or Clinton on the ballot. All the other blue states stay blue, and most of them will be “more blue” than they were in 2004.
Plus, Obama’s ground game is ridiculously good. They’re always one step ahead of where they need to be in terms of rolling out money, ads, offices and staff. McCain hasn’t been able to afford, and now doesn’t even need, such organization. The fact that the Democratic race will be decided in part by Ohio is very good for Obama: He’ll lay tracks there that will ensure he wins it again in November.
Right. The point is that we won by almost 10 points, and by proportionally larger margin in the EC.
Yes. Although “landslide” can be used to refer to the popular vote, it usually means who won so in the EC and/or by sweeping the states, which is easy to do without winning the popular vote by much. The popular vote means nothing in terms of winning.
Maybe. McCain is pro-life, and I suspect that is the No. 1 issue for those social conservatives.
How about this one? 
I kid, I kid - here’s a real one.
Wow - that would surprise me. Reagan sure didn’t get his margin of re-election from his base.
But like I say, this campaign is not started yet. Let’s see how Obama looks [list=A][li]once some of the new-car smell wears off him, and [*]after he actually sews up the nomination., and everybody who voted for Hilary realizes she ain’t gonna be the Co-President again.[/list][/li]
Regards,
Shodan
You can add Missouri to the list of swing states.
Let’s also see how McCain looks after everyone gets a closer look at him as well and gets beyond the “maverick” label to see how close he really is to Bush. Let’s also see what happens with the economy. It is going to have to pick up for McCain to have a chance. Stagflation will kill him. Let’s also see what happens in Iraq. Sadr may call off the cease-fire at the end of this week and that would make things worse.
Bottom line, if the economy stays out of the tank and if Iraq stays at it’s current level of carnage then McCain stays where he is (a decided underdog in Las Vegas). If things get worse on either front it could turn into a route.
None, or very few, anyway, of those conservatives that are upset at McCain are going to vote Democratic, so forget that, and they’ll probably still vote Republican, on the theory that McCain is still better than Obama. What they won’t do is donate money, volunteer to canvass their neighborhood, and staff phone trees. The direct effect will not be on their voting habits, but the more moderate voters who might have been convinced by an energized conservative base.
The lukewarm support of the conservative base will cost McCain moderate votes. On top of that the close election is going to mean that big corporate donations are going to be more closely matched, with contributions to both parties. Nobody’s going to want to be left backing a loser.
The election is going to be a lot closer than people around here seem to think. I don’t know if it’s bravado or gamesmanship from the Obama supporters, but if Obama wins, it won’t be by much, and he could lose. There may be wailing and gnashing of teeth aplenty.