Some time ago I asked if anyone knew the odds on this solitaire game. In gambling casinos you pay $52 for the deck and get back $5 for every card you get up starting with aces.
It seemed to me that the odds were very poor for the player. Much worse than most casino odds.
So someone, I forget who, said the only test was to keep track of a bunch of games. I finally got around to it and have played 30 games over the past week or so.
Here is the histogram of the results to date. The curve looks like it’s going to settle down somewhere between $10 and $15. Somewhere down the line there will be a substantial drop when I collect $260 for beating the game. However, the more games played the harder it is to move the cumulative average loss/game, so we’ll see.
I’ll update periodically.
Don’t you wish you were retired so you could screw around like this?
I’m convinced that the odds on the solitaire game as played on the computer are lousy for the player. It looks like the average loss per game is $16 or so. Even if I won the next game and made $260 the average would still be about $15.
So I’m readjusting my standards. If I lose less than $16, I won.
One thing I note, and I don’t know whether it’s statistically relevant or not, is that you seem to have started with a Win. This dramatically altered your starting values.
What does the graph look like if you lose your first game? First couple games? Bet it takes a long time to get “up” to -$16 per!
The histogram shows a $17 loss on the first game. Why do you say that I started with a win?
It took in the neighborhood of 30 games to finally get the loss down to the vicinity of the final average loss per game.
The nature of running averages like the histogram of loss is that the curve has wide swings at the start and then settles down to a relatively uniform value. If you play 10000 games you have lost about $160000. Even two $260 wins in a row only changes the average from $16 to $15.95
