I’m looking at articles from, say, yesterday (for example here) and I don’t understand how the polls were so damn wrong.
So, so, so, so, so wrong.
This might kill a lot of things faster. ![]()
First of all, the markets trade 24 hours. We know where they are: down 4.5% with an 80% probability of a Trump win priced in.
It’s a fallacy that the markets recovered in the UK; or, they did in GBP terms, but that does not reflect domestic economic prospects. The FTSE-100 is packed with huge multinational companies - around 80% of FTSE-100 revenues are in $. It rallied in GBP terms, but only because the GBP collapsed, automatically increasing foreign revenues for those companies. In effect, if you were a UK-based investor long the FTSE-100, you lucked out because you really had international investments, not domestic investments.
The US is not set up in the same way. The stock market will bear the brunt of the uncertainty. Having said that, aside from the uncertainty element, Trump is probably nowhere near so bad for the US economy as Brexit is for the UK economy. The concerns with Trump are not primarily economic, they are in social and foreign policy.
CBS is calling North Carolina for The Donald … one more domino falls … click …
Will we even bother with polling after this? I mean, what a waste of time. I don’t think I’ve ever been so disappointed.
They weren’t, or at least not yet. Undecides are in fact breaking more for Trump than Clinton. This was not a surprise, if you listened to The Guru.
Not the biggest surprise in the world, though. Those 55 electoral votes have been in the Democrat column since the election cycle began (so, November 2012 basically).
I fear we are all doomed. Doomed I say! DOOMED!
CNN just called North Carolina for Trump. 
Jesus man ![]()
You kick ass!
Welp, it is starting to look like I am going to have to buy a gun and learn how to hunt. Just like last cycle, I have switched over to Fox News to watch the ending, though for different reasons this year. The money quote (to me) on Fox: “All of the smart people, on both sides, were wrong.”
Jesus. What the fuck have you done America?
But I don’t want to live in a Third-World country!
I’m afraid to check Facebook. People are probably going ballistic.
CNN is about 15 minutes behind everyone else.
The exit polls have been wrong many times before. 2004 was especially bad.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22188-2005Jan19.html?nav=rss_politics/elections/2004
Or maybe when you tell people they’re deplorable they stop answering pollsters.
No, it offers her no breathing space at all.
California was always in the bag for Clinton.
The running total of electoral college votes, now, is effectively meaningless unless and until it includes definitive results for key battleground states like North Carolina (just called for Trump), Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Unfortunately, a lot of Americans actually do.
Hey, you’ll still get electricity at least 4 hours each day. And manufacturing jobs will come pouring back in at the new $1.25 MW!!