On Bracketology -- NOT 2007 Specific

Cafe Society
1

Before the madness begins, I wanted to discuss some general rules of thumb, bits of conventional wisdom, self-evident truths, etc. that one should consider when filling out his/her brackets.

This is not specific to this year’s tournament as I’m sure that thread will be coming up any minute now.

Also if each poster would please state his/her credentials at some point. For me, I’ve never won the big prize as at my work though I did win one with a much smaller pool with some guys on line. At work, we usually get close to 50 people and it’s always winner-take-all. I’ve gotten close many times, been on top of the leader board going into the final weekend and have lost it twice on the Championship game.

Anyway here are my points to remember which people may refute at will.

1. All things being equal, if you can’t decide between two teams, go with the one from the better conference.
Teams from power conferences have played bigger games throughout the season and have dealt with more pressure. Quick way to measure conferences? Look at how many teams they have going to the Show.

2. Always pick a team that’s riding a hot streak rather than one that’s due.
Look at the team’s last ten games as the indicator.

3. Experience in March Madness is crucial. Go with teams who have players returning to the tournament as well as coaches who know how to get them there.

4. How the teams do in their conference tournament is an extremely unpredictable indicator as to how they’ll do in the NCAA’s.

5. Figure that at least one 12 or 13 seed will advance to the Sweet Sixteen’s but trying to pick them isn’t worth the bother.
You always have to take into count the inevitable upsets and you’re wasting your time if you are going simply with the chalk but sifting through the eight teams seeded 12 and 13 is usually too tough a call and can throw your brackets into shambles.

6. Figure that no more than two of the number one seeds will advance to the Final Fours.

There’s more but I’ll stop here.

As I said, have at it in countering any of these points and please chime in with what has worked for you in the past.

2

Wow.

Too early for this thread?

One little bump and then it can die.

3

Those are all good points. I usually follow a more general strategy when making my picks (I usually do pretty well: top 3 or so in my pool the last few years). The basic idea is to work backwards. Rather than starting at the first round and picking winners, start by deciding who you think will make the Final Four. Then decide the Elite Eight and most of the Sweet Sixteen. Then intersperse a few likely upsets (as well as one or two unlikely ones) which will generate your desired Sweet Sixteen. I find if I go “forward” through the brackets, I wind up being too clever by half and picking a very esoteric and unlikely Final Four. Working backwards works best for me.

4

All the pools I enter are won by people who know nothing about college hoops. Therefore, get someone who couldn’t care less about it to make your picks.

5

That’s the best strategy. Last year, I played 5 brackets on ESPN and one of them ended up in the 99th percentile where I correctly picked three of the final four and Florida as the eventual champ.

Of course, that was the one where I just picked teams randomly. Sometimes I’d go by the longer school name or the more fiecesome masket, it’s a crapshoot.

6

As one of those people who doesn’t know Austin Peay from yellow snow, I’ve had some success in small pools with just picking the favorites in each match up to the finals. It pisses the “experts” off, but it can work.

You have to figure that the folks who pick the pairings know a lot more than us poor duffers, and though upsets will and do happen, the best way to bet is on the favorite.

7

I did pretty good picking all the Final Four teams.

Okay, kidding. I didn’t think LSU would go that far.