Oscar Odds

So I was a bit bored and doing some lazy web surfing when I cam upon this website outlining the current Oscar Odds. Just thought I would see what people think.

Right now Best Picture seems like a 3 picture race: Argo, Lincoln, and [iLes Miserables*. I saw Argo and thought it was excellent, haven’t seen the others yet.

Best Director they have Ben Affleck at better than even odds to best Steven Spielberg who is at a little less than 3:1 odds.

They seem to think Daniel Day-Lewis is a lock for Best Actor and surprising to me Jennifer Lawrence seems to be a lcok for Silver Lining Playbook.

It’s funny how they have a few movies listed under Best Picture that aren’t even coming out this year (The Great Gatsby, The Place Beyond the Pines, Inside Llewyn Davis). Also, am I seeing incorrectly, or is someone giving odds on something called The Teleportation Accident - Ned Beauman? What the hell is that?

Anyway, those top 3 for Best Picture look about right. Silver Linings Playbook had a lot of buzz going into its release, but I think the box office has been slightly underwhelming, so it might fall out.

Best Director looks right, too, although the idea of Tom Hooper winning two Oscars in three years is slightly distressing for me.

The only person I would consider close to a lock is Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress. Day-Lewis and Lawrence have the buzz right now, but if Hugh Jackman really wows (as he has in really reviews of Les Miserables) and Lawrence’s film fades, those two races could be shaken up.

I think Leonardo DiCaprio or Christoph Waltz could make a splash in Django Unchained, so I’m waiting to hear reviews for that one. That and The Hobbit seem to be the only two big films that haven’t been seen yet, so the field definitely seems to be taking shape. I’m really hoping for a comeback for Moonrise Kingdom, still my favorite movie of the year. A screenplay nomination seems likely, but I’m hoping there are enough fans in the Academy to push it into the Best Picture category

What a weird site. I’m afraid to click on anything because it looks awfully dodgy. They do have a good grasp of the most likely nominees, though there’s always something that comes out of nowhere to surprise us (some).

I didn’t much care for the movie but I liked Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence very much. If either is nominated I won’t mind at all.

Neither name is listed on IMDB. My guess is that it was a made up title as a placeholder when the site was being built, then they put in the most likely nominees and haven’t updated to reflect the current release dates.

It’s November and Moonrise Kingdom is still my favorite film of the year. I’ve been giggling with delight like a silly little girl over the Gotham Independent Film Awards and today’s nominations for the Film Independent Spirit Awards. Moonrise Kingdom and my 2nd favorite film of the year so far, Bernie, are getting lots of love. These things aren’t really precursors as such, but they do aid in publicity for movies that need a boost back into the voter’s eyes.

I’ll put these in spoiler tags so people won’t have to scroll through long lists.

Nominations (and winners, marked with an *) of the Gotham Independent Film Awards. The only category where I’ve seen all the nominees is Best Ensemble. I am a bit miffed that Moonrise Kingdom or Bernie didn’t win. I liked Your Sister’s Sister but come on, it only had 3 people in it! Yeah, that makes it an ensemble but seriously.

[spoiler]

Gotham Independent Film Awards
Best Feature

Bernie
The Loneliest Planet
The Master
Middle of Nowhere
* Moonrise Kingdom

Best Documentary

Detropia, Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady, directors; Heidi Ewing, Rachel Grady, Craig Atkinson, producers (Loki Films)
* How to Survive a Plague, David France, director; Howard Gertler, David France, producers (Sundance Selects)
Marina Abramović: The Artist is Present
Matthew Akers, director; Jeff Dupre, Maro Chermayeff, producers (HBO Documentary Films and Music Box Films)
Room 237, Rodney Ascher, director; Tim Kirk, producer (IFC Midnight)
The Waiting Room, Peter Nicks, director; Peter Nicks, Linda Davis, William B. Hirsch, producers (International Film Circuit)

Best Ensemble Performance

Bernie, Jack Black, Shirley MacLaine, Matthew McConaughey (Millennium Entertainment)
Moonrise Kingdom, Bruce Willis, Edward Norton, Bill Murray, Frances McDormand, Tilda Swinton, Jared Gilman, Kara Hayward, Jason Schwartzman, Bob Balaban (Focus Features)
Safety Not Guaranteed, Aubrey Plaza, Mark Duplass, Jake Johnson, Karan Soni, Jenica Bergere, Kristen Bell, Jeff Garlin, Mary Lynn Rajskub (Film District)
Silver Linings Playbook, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver, Chris Tucker, Anupam Kher (The Weinstein Company)
* Your Sister’s Sister, Emily Blunt, Rosemarie Dewitt, Mark Duplass (IFC Films)

Breakthrough Director

Zal Batmanglij for Sound of My Voice (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Brian M. Cassidy and Melanie Shatzky for Francine (Factory 25 and The Film Sales Company)
Jason Cortlund and Julia Halperin for Now, Forager (Argot Pictures)
Antonio Méndez Esparza for Aquí y Allá (Here and There) (Torch Films)
* Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Breakthrough Actor

Mike Birbiglia in Sleepwalk with Me (IFC Films)
* Emayatzy Corinealdi in Middle of Nowhere (AFFRM and Participant Media)
Thure Lindhardt in Keep the Lights On (Music Box Films)
Melanie Lynskey in Hello, I Must Be Going (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Best Film Not Playing at a Theater Near You

Kid-Thing, David Zellner, director; Nathan Zellner, Producer
* An Oversimplification of Her Beauty, Terence Nance, director; Terence Nance, Andrew Corkin, James Bartlett, producers
Red Flag, Alex Karpovsky, director; Alex Karpovsky, Michael Bowes, producers
Sun Don’t Shine,  Amy Seimetz, director; Kim Sherman, Amy Seimetz, producers
Tiger Tail in Blue, Frank V. Ross, director; Adam Donaghey, Drew Durepos, producers

For the second consecutive year, IFP is proud present the euphoria Calvin Klein Spotlight on Women Filmmakers ‘Live the Dream’ grant, a $25,000 cash award for an alumna of IFP’s Independent Filmmaker Labs. This grant aims to further the careers of emerging women directors by supporting the completion, distribution and audience engagement strategies of their first feature film.

The nominees are:

Leah Meyerhoff, director, I BELIEVE IN UNICORNS
Stacie Passon, director, CONCUSSION
Visra Vichit Vadakan, KARAOKE GIRL

Winner of the Gothams Audience Award: “Artifact,” Filmmaker Jared Leto

Winner of inaugural Bingham Ray prize: Benh Zeitlin, director, Beasts of the Southern Wild[/spoiler]

Here are the nominees for the Film Independent Spirit Awards. Last year I’d seen just about all the nominees, this year not many. Several haven’t opened here yet. Some may never open here. I marked the ones I’ve seen with italics.

[spoiler]BEST FEATURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Bernie

Keep the Lights On
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Julia Loktev, The Loneliest Planet
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
Martin McDonagh, Seven Psychopaths
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On

BEST FIRST FEATURE (Award given to the director and producer)
Fill the Void
Gimme the Loot
Safety Not Guaranteed
Sound of My Voice
The Perks of Being a Wallflower

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Rama Burshtein, Fill the Void
Derek Connolly, Safety Not Guaranteed
Christopher Ford, Robot & Frank
Rashida Jones & Will McCormack, Celeste and Jesse Forever
Jonathan Lisecki, Gayby

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD

Breakfast with Curtis, WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Laura Colella
Middle of Nowhere, WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Ava DuVernay, PRODUCERS: Howard Barish, Paul Garnes,
Mosquita y Mari, WRITER/DIRECTOR: Aurora Guerrero, PRODUCER: Chad Burris
Starlet, WRITER/DIRECTOR: Sean Baker, PRODUCERS: Blake Ashman-Kipervaser, Kevin Chinoy, Patrick Cunningham, Chris Maybach, Francesca Silvestri
The Color Wheel, WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Alex Ross Perry, WRITER: Carlen Altman

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Linda Cardellini, Return
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

BEST MALE LEAD
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Thure Lindhardt, Keep the Lights On
Matthew McConaughey, Killer Joe
Wendell Pierce, Four

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister’s Sister
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Brit Marling, Sound of My Voice
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
David Oyelowo, Middle of Nowhere
Michael Péna, End of Watch
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths
Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Yoni Brook, Valley of Saints
Lol Crawley, Here
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Roman Vasyanov, End of Watch
Robert Yeoman, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
How to Survive a Plague
DIRECTOR: David France
PRODUCERS: David France, Howard Gertler

Marina Abramoviæ: The Artist is Present
DIRECTOR: Matthew Akers
PRODUCERS: Maro Chermayeff, Jeff Dupre

The Central Park Five
DIRECTORS/PRODUCERS: Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon

The Invisible War
DIRECTOR: Kirby Dick
PRODUCERS: Tanner King Barklow, Amy Ziering

The Waiting Room
DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Peter Nicks
PRODUCERS: Linda Davis, William B. Hirsch

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
Amour
Once Upon A Time in Anatolia
Rust And Bone
Sister
War Witch

16th ANNUAL PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD – The 16th annual Piaget Producers
Award honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources
demonstrate the creativity, tenacity, and vision required to produce
quality, independent films. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted
grant funded by Piaget.

Nobody Walks PRODUCER: Alicia Van Couvering
Prince Avalanche, PRODUCER: Derrick Tseng
Stones in the Sun, PRODUCER: Mynette Louie

19th ANNUAL SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD – The 19th annual Someone to Watch
Award recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet
received appropriate recognition. The award includes a $25,000
unrestricted grant.

Pincus, DIRECTOR: David Fenster
Gimme the Loot, DIRECTOR: Adam Leon
Electrick Children, DIRECTOR: Rebecca Thomas

STELLA ARTOIS TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD – The 18th annual Truer Than
Fiction Award is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features
who has not yet received significant recognition. The award includes a
$25,000 unrestricted grant.

Leviathan
DIRECTOR: Lucien Castaing-Taylor and Véréna Paravel
The Waiting Room, DIRECTOR: Peter Nicks
Only the Young, DIRECTOR: Jason Tippet & Elizabeth Mims

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD – (Given to one film’s director, casting director, and
its ensemble cast)
Starlet, Director: Sean Baker[/spoiler]

From the Spirit Awards list:

This is the supporting category? I haven’t seen Toussaint, but I have seen the other four, and none of them are supporting performances in any way. I know there’s always this kind of category fraud at the Oscars, but come on, Spirit Awards. Be better than that.

It’s a good list. I would like to see Safety Not Guaranteed get some attention of some kind, though.

Goddammit.

I just spent a half hour going through all of the animated features that came out in 2012, analyzing the box office records and critical reception of each one. I had reviews of each movie’s chances and my list of predictions for who would be nominated and who would win.

And then when I tried to post it, the goddam board told me it had logged me out for no apparent reason and lost my post.

Given the critical acclaim, I imagine Life of Pi will be nominated in some categories (Picture, cinematography, directing).

As well it should be. I think it will win a few as well.

I’m really hoping the lead, Suraj Sharma, will get some attention. He’s a newcomer and completely carries the movie. He’s really great in it.

With regards to films not being released in time, often a film will have a brief limited showing in time to be eligible for the Oscars, and to get publicity from the nomination to increase sales when it is officially released.

Spoke, I agree. I love that movie.

Zero Dark Thirty hasn’t been released yet, but many have seen it, and it’s getting astonishing buzz. Sasha at Awards Daily is beside herself in awe of the film and of Jessica Chastain’s performance, which is a lock for a nomination and probably a win too. I do love Jennifer Lawrence (I was the one who brought her to the SDMB’s attention in Winter’s Bone) but while she’s the best thing about Silver Linings Playbook, it’s a pretty lightweight role (and movie, I think). She’ll have plenty of chances.

My condolences. It would have been interesting too. I hate when that happens.

10 Films have made the semi-finals in the Visual Effects category. There will be a “Bake Off” where the Visual Effect branch will view 10-minute sequences from each film, then vote on the final 5 Academy Award nominees. They are

“The Amazing Spider-Man”
“Cloud Atlas”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“John Carter”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Skyfall”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

I’ve seen all of them except for Life of Pi and, of course, The Hobbit. Life of Pi is low priority for me but I’ll see it at some point. The Hobbit comes out next week and its priority couldn’t be any higher. Whatever else is nominated, I hope The Avengers gets in. “Academy Award nominee The Avengers” sounds delicious. Cloud Atlas probably deserves a nomination even though I thought it was a very silly movie. I’ll scream if it gets a Makeup nomination though. It was horrible IMO.

I would like to see Beauty Is Embarrassing get the nomination for (and win) best documentary.

(Ignore the 5.7 viewer rating. IMDb seems to be doing a thing where it filters out “10” votes in early voting to prevent ballot box stuffing. If you look behind the numbers, the movie has received a lot of “10” votes. Look at the metacritic rating.)

Looks good. I don’t even know if that opened around here. It could get nominated, but I can’t see it winning over the likes of The Central Park Five, West of Memphis or my favorite, the crowd-pleaser Searching For Sugar Man.

Official Oscar Scorecard for Oedipus (subject to change once the movies actually release):
Best Picture: Les Miserables (honorable mentions to Master, Lincoln, and Django)
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: Anne Hathaway? Is her role in Les Mis a lead?
Supporting Actor: Tossup between Christoph Waltz and Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway? Is her role in Les Mis a lead?
Cinematography: Les Mis, Prometheus, or Skyfall (did anyone see the work in Skyfall? That shit was amazing)
**Directing: Quentin Tarantino or Spielburg
Screenplay: Tarantino or Wes Anderson
**
Award for “just being out of the reach of every single award handed out”:
Kathryn Bigalow and everyone who worked on Zero Dark Thirty.

Now that you mention it, the movie is a sequel of sorts to Academy Award nominees IRON MAN and IRON MAN 2 – except with Oscar-nominated supporting actors Jeremy Renner and Mark Ruffalo playing off Oscar-nominated leading man Robert Downey Jr, even while Oscar nominee Samuel L Jackson and Oscar winner Gwyneth Paltrow remain on hand to deliver lines straight from their Oscar-nominated writer, Joss Whedon.

(Who’da thunk the weak point in that litany would be the dude fresh off winning the Laurence Olivier Award for Best Newcomer in a Play?)