Peyton Manning to Broncos, Tebow to be traded

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There shouldn’t be 7 other QB’s in the league you’d rather have than a healthy Peyton going into this year.
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It doesn’t matter how good Manning is “going into this year.” It’s probable that in March 2012, fresh and rested, he looks really great. But the season isn’t played in March or August. What matters is

  1. how good he’s going to be in December, playing a cold-weather game after several months of taking hits.

  2. how good he’s going to be over the next several years, as he gets progressively older and older.

I think this is a great move by Denver, but it’s ridiculous to think Manning won’t decline as he gets older. None of the all-time greats who played into their late 30s were as good as they were in their prime; they had a few great games left, and in a couple cases great seasons, but for the most part they became increasingly average.

Agreed, except on Vick and Sanchez.

I’ll happily wager you $1000 against your $100 that if Tebow is signed, he will run the regular offense of whatever team he plays for, just as he did in Denver.

Because they have no use for him and don’t want to deal with the nonsense that surrounds him. If they want a better backup, they can look for a free agent.

Not interested, and if it bothers you that much, pretend I said “Can’t read defenses or throw the ball straight and scrambles about 50 percent of the time” instead of “Can’t run a regular offense.”

Who? Kyle Orton?

This is my question (because all the pundits are saying the same thing about upgrading receivers): if Peyton is such a good thrower, why does he need great receivers; wouldn’t it be better to stick with mediocre* receivers and use the money on the O-line or defense or running back?

I mean, sure, better receivers are always better all other things being equal, but there’s only so much money to go around so other things won’t be equal. And it would seem to me that a great thrower doesn’t need receivers to be as open, so improving somewhere else would have a bigger payoff. Why spend millions going from ‘open enough for a completion from Manning’ to ‘twice as open as necessary to get a completion from Manning’, when you could use the millions on ‘making sure Manning is hit half as often’ or ‘doubling the run threat’ (which leverages Manning’s abilities by forcing defenses to respect the run)?

  • Yes, there may be styles of receiver that work better with Manning than others: a super-athletic Moss-type who can’t get the hang of automatic route adjustments is a poor fit for Manning’s offense, but nobody’s saying ‘get receivers that fit Manning’s offense’; they’re saying ‘get better receivers’.

Denver has a fantastic defense and running game.

If you don’t have to change the playbook, but you drastically change your play-calling, I would argue that’s about as close to “changing the offense” as you can get without actually drawing up new plays.

Did they really have zone-read plays in their playbook when Orton was the quarterback? Designed keepers, etc.?

Nobody said they needed great receivers, and if they did, they’d be shit out of luck because I don’t think there are any available. The best guy on the market is Mike Wallace. They need better receivers than the ones they have, because they have maybe two who are good. They have Thomas, and Tebow liked Decker, and that’s about it. The defense is already very good, they have a good running back, and I’m not sure the line needs much in the way of upgrades. If you have a good QB and a bunch of terrible wideouts who don’t run good routes and don’t catch the ball, you’re not getting very much out of your good QB.

I’m not aware of a type of receiver who doesn’t work with Peyton Manning. He’s made some mediocre guys look really good over the years, but that doesn’t mean Denver is not in need of an upgrade.

“Fantastic” defenses don’t give up 40 or more points 4 times in a season.

And the O-line is pretty good, too.

Here’s a list of free agent receivers and tight ends.

Names that catch my eye include:

Mike Wallace
Reggie Wayne
Pierre Garcon
Robert Meachem (Hope the Saints keep him)
Anthony Gonzalez
Courtney Roby (definitely a speed guy, dunno about his hands)
Visanthe Shiancoe
Ted Ginn
Jeremy Shockey–not a huge fan, and very injury prone, but might have a little left

Thomas and Decker are underrated but I hope Denver makes a run at Mike Wallace.

The Broncos’ defense gave up 40+ points just twice. Or do you somehow think that giving up two TDs via interception or fumble recovery in both the Buffalo and Detroit games should count against the Broncos’ defense?

You should probably work from a list that’s been updated in the last several weeks and doesn’t include a huge list of players that have already signed elsewhere.

Wayne is staying in Indy, Garcon signed with Washington, Meachem went to San Diego, and the Patriots got Gonzalez. Wallace is still out there, and I guess it would cost the Broncos a draft pick to sign him, but that’d probably be worth it since they might use that pick on a WR anyway. Ginn and Shiancoe are unsigned. I wouldn’t bother with Shockey, personally, given his injury history. Roby is purely a kick returner and has caught one pass in the last six seasons.

Good point, but then you would have to adjust every team’s defensive stats to take that into consideration. Their defense has some nice pieces and helped win games, I’m just saying it’s not elite by any means. I think they also benefited from playing some depleted offenses (Bears, Raiders, Chiefs, etc).

Or just stop using arbitrary metrics like “allowed 40+ points”.

Maybe. It’ll also be very helpful to see how it plays when they don’t have to be on the field for so long because their offense is horrible and inept.

Early reports says the Packers, Jets, Jaguars, and Dolphins have talked to Denver about Tebow. I am trying not to imagine what it would look like if Tebow came to New York.

What would be interesting is if a team wanted to take Tebow and turn him into running back with a lot more options available. Not in on every down, but he can take a wildcat and pass it, or run with it, or just be there to block for the real QB. You could introduce an very unpredictable offense. Play to the guys strengths. And yeah, I’m sure this isn’t what he really wants to do, but, well, he had his chance.

Channel 4 just gave Dave Hnida five minutes with a model of the cervical vertebrae to explain why Manning’s head won’t fall off the first time he gets sacked. We’ll be lucky if they squeeze in a weather report this evening.

Also, Manning will wear the retired number 18; Frank Tripucka said it’s OK by him.

If it were up to me I’d keep Tebow and put him in at the beginning of every 4th quarter. If the whole team suddenly reverts to a college-style run attack every time, so what? That’s what the Broncos did against the Jets and their three nose tackles, and they won. Tebow deserves some credit; Manning needs a backup; 4th-quarter Tebow was really good, and Manning takes less abuse under my plan playing 3 quarters, old man that he is.