There is a huge difference. The latter implies that some kind of special effort that needs to be made for him that doesn’t need to be made for other backups.
You’re right that Tebow isn’t skilled at reading defenses, has poor accuracy, and scrambles a lot; but so do lot of young backups. I think it’s entirely possible that Tebow is better than Trent Edwards, Ryan Mallett, or whoever the Packers 3rd QB is.
So what would you suggest instead?
Points per game? Broncos gave up the 9th most. As you said, points given up can be influenced by offensive blunders. And even if the defense “gives up” points, it can still be caused by a short-field after a turnover or successive 3-and-outs, etc.
Yards? Probably better (less influenced by offensive points given up) but still deficient. The Broncos gave up the 13th most yards.
I’m sure places like Football Outsiders have some advanced metrics, but their ones for team defense is for their premium members. For what they do show (top 5), Denver isn’t there.
Always a factor to take into consideration, though other teams with inept offenses such as the Jaguars, Seahawks and Browns still posted respectable defensive stats.
I stand by my assertion there is no reason to think the Bronco’s D is “fantastic.” It’s got some great players like Dumervil, Von Miller and Bailey, but as a unit it’s still got holes.
He absolutely is better than the Packers’ third-string QB, some guy named Nick Hill, who has been playing arena ball for the past 3 seasons, and who the Pack signed in January.
The question is whether he’s better than the guy who’s now the second-string QB (with Flynn’s departure), Graham Harrell.
I know this is pretty much completely irrelevant but GODAMN John Elway is finishing life as one ugly mofo. Jesus. Money and fame clearly do NOT buy you good looks.
GODDAMN!
run, like an antelope, out of control…
I think a special effort is required since the Broncos completely changed their style after he became their starter (even if they did not change their offense). If your plan is to try to make use Tebow as a standard-ish QB so you don’t need to make huge style changes when you use him, then you need to believe you can do the kind of work on his reads and throwing motion that the Broncos knew was necessary but decided they weren’t going to do. Otherwise you’re just going to use him as a wildcat QB for a few plays a game. But if he’s a QB, you’re looking at winning in the modern NFL while underusing the forward pass, scoring few points, and generally struggling to move the ball (especially in the first three quarters of the game). I think that takes a special effort.
I’ll swear just about anything is better than Trent Edwards. Still, Tebow appears to have a much lower ceiling in terms of his accuracy and decisiveness. His can make plays with his feet, but his ability to complete a pass compared to other young QBs is subpar and there seems to be a lot of agreement that he will need to make a huge effort to get his mechanics, accuracy and reads up to snuff. Other guys don’t start with those demerits- although they don’t have Tebow’s positives either.
That’s why we invented money and fame.
I don’t see why; if they’re taking him on, it’s as a developmental project.
People talk as if the Broncos lined up in a single-wing and ran spin plays 15 times a game. He was dropping back to pass, on average, about 30 times a game; compared to the NFL average of 35-40 a game, that’s not an immense difference. Yes, he wound up scrambling quite a bit, but so do most young, mobile QBs.
I don’t see evidence that Tebow needs such customization more than any other running QB adjusting to the pro game. Hell, it’s a standard announcer cliche to talk about how the team needs to run the ball to protect the young QB, give him safe throws, etc. As far as I can tell from the statements made by Broncos coaches and by watching their games, the only changes they made were:
They ran a lot more plays from the shotgun. To an I-formation guy like Fox, this was a sacrifice, but for other teams (including the Packers), the shotgun is the norm, not the exception.
They ran fewer and simpler plays. Again, that’s standard for any young QB.
They installed a handful of zone option plays (and a few other gadgets) and ran them 4-8 times per game. These plays use the same blocking schemes as any other outside zone blocking running play, so installing them takes a couple afternoons, tops.
That’s it. If Tebow was any other project QB thrust into a starting role, the first two would be completely unremarkable. The third is what made talking heads lose their minds, but it really is not some major alteration; they wound up in a playoff hunt, and those plays were working, and so they went with it. If/when the guy develops, you can stop running those because you have other, better options.
Of course, Tebow isn’t just any other project QB: he’s a first round pick and a media phenomenon. But coaches, hopefully, should ignore that.
Considering Edwards is 29, on his fourth team, and beaten out last year by Kyle Boller, I’d say his ceiling is pretty low indeed. Tebow at least still qualifies as “young” for another year or two.
He might have been dropping back to pass 30 times, but he wasn’t passing anywhere near that often. Every time I looked at the line on one of those games at the end of the third quarter his passing was on the order of 4-9 for 63 yards. For most QB’s you’d expect that at the end of the first quarter, not the third.
Even though I like Tebow and respect his beliefs, this still cracked me up:
http://weknowawesome.com/2012/03/20/jesus-answered-tebows-prayers/
Remember Tebow did start game 6 of a season that began with no training camp because of the lockout. It might not take special effort to make him serviceable, it might just take ordinary circumstances. You can’t find out if you cut him now. Paying $96 million for Manning, why not toss in the extra $2 million to keep Tebow? You can always cut him next year, and there isn’t much to lose. Unless his religious followers are really that annoying. To me, this isn’t politics so they don’t bother me.
I saw a quote: The Broncos are the only team willing to sacrifice a virgin to win a Superbowl.
It seems you’re suggesting that Elway looked good at some time in the past…
Out of curiosity, does anyone think Tebow could scratch out a career as a fullback or tight end? He’s a little small for those positions, but if he bulked up I’d think he’d have a shot with his running ability.
No. People used to ask this about Michael Vick, too. What makes him effective is the risk he could run or throw. If he’s just doing one, he’s not exceptional.
He’s 6’3" 236; that’s not too small for an Aaron Hernandez type pass-catching TE.
The problem is that he’s 24 years old and you’d be asking him to do something entirely new. He’s a great athlete, but it’s almost like asking if he could play shortstop in the major leagues; sheer athleticism only takes you so far. Conversion projects rarely work at the NFL level, and when they do it’s because the change is made right from the start.
I could see a creative coach (e.g. Belichick) using him in some specific packages (which is not without value), but it’s too late for anything beyond that.
Tebow to the New York Jets for a 4th rounder. Wow. More in the NFL thread.
The Jets just signed Mark Sanchez to a long-term contract, so I’m not sure how it would work out for them. It sounds like Sanchez would be the starter, with Tebow coming in a few times a game to run the WildCat offense. But that seems to be wasting a lot of money for a part-time QB.
Sanchez has his weaknesses and if he’s going to become a successful NFL QB, he’ll have to play a lot to get more experiences. Bringing in Tebow will prevent that, and have him always looking over his shoulder (if he has a bad game, the crowd will be screaming for Tebow).
ETA: And just as I post, I discover he’s going to the Jets. I’m a Jets fan, and was delighted by Tebow at Denver, but this isn’t a good thing.
Too late now. And I agree I’m not sure what the Jets are thinking. They’re not giving up a ton, though.
Now that’s a surprise–I hadn’t even heard the Jets were thinking about it until today when ESPN started talking about it.
To give you an idea of what you can get for a fourth-rounder these days, consider that this morning the Eagles traded for Pro Bowler DeMeco Ryans for a fourth-rounder (plus a swap of third-round picks, which the Eagles actually lost 12 slots on). Now the Texans surely got robbed on that trade, but it tells you the value of a fourth-round pick these days. I was thinking Tebow would be worth a fifth-round pick maybe, more likely a sixth.
Just saw this headline on Fark.com. I guarantee you won’t see a better one on the Tebow trade: