Jackelope–Pax right back atcha (it was the skidmarks comment that got to you, huh?) This is a pretty hot topic, judging from some of the sound and fury it’s engendered, so it’s understandable how you got a little cranky. Let me take up your moon analogy: I think NASA felt pretty confident that Apollo would get to the moon. They weren’t saying, “Hmmmm, best guess is it’s about 50/50. Okay, what the hell, let’s go for it.”
It is precisely statistics that allowed them to think they had taken all reasonable precautions against disaster, probably well over 90% assurance (by their standards, whatever they used). Which is all I’m calling for here, imposing a high degree of certainty on marriage before we call a “GO!” What’s “high”? I’m not sure, but certainly we’re operating on a low level right now, to judge from the divorce statistics.
Of which: keturah seems to think I’m basing my argument on statistics alone, so if they’re flawed, my whole idea is invalid, but as I keep saying, getting into a specific stat is beside the point. There’s just too much divorce, by almost anyone’s standard. Do you want to argue that the divorce rate is totally okay? You’d better open your own thread in GD for that one–I suspect you’ll get some opposition there. If not, then we agree that people are getting divorces at an unhealthy and undesirable rate. I’m trying to figure what can be done about this unhealthy rate, and one of the solutions I’ve lit on involves dialling back our society’s blanket approval of every ill-conceived marriage someone can propose on three seconds’ notice.
As to “undivorced”: I just mean that I consider the failure rate for marriage to be much higher than simply the divorce rate, since divorce is merely a drastic solution to the problem of unhappy marriages, most of which don’t end in divorce. They go on, with the two people reconciling themselves to misery–whether from stubbornness, or desperation, or a sense of honor, or a sense of duty, or for the kids’ sake, or just from a philosophical acceptance of “I made my bed, now I have to lie in it.” Maybe the true divorce rate, when you take into account all the serial marriers, is as low as 33% . But I contend that there are probably at least that many people in enduring marriages that they regret.
Now as to what I’m proposing be done: Not much. Certainly I’m not suggesting that the state step in and start imposing IQ tests, required counseling, psychological profiling, income checks or anything else on people before they get married. But society can have powerful effects. Take, for example, the disapproval we as a society doled out onto people who had a child outside of wedlock, and the lengths pregnant women went to a few decades ago to keep the dark, shameful secret from their families and friends. That shame no longer exists today, and very few women would even consider doing the least that their pregnant counterparts did in the past. Why? Because society no longer dishes out that disapproval.
Well, in the same sense, I wish we would cast some disapproval onto young people getting married today. Something more like “You’re getting marrried? Oh, dear. Well, good luck” than the “You’re getting married! Oh, joy! Oh, rapture! Good for you! Let’s leave work early so I can call up everyone I know and share the good tidings! Let me give you a gift, I’m so happy I could shit” etc.-type response that is routine.
That would be a start, but I think social pressure can work far-reaching effects.
Now, for the dog-pilers: you may commence the counterattack (citing me for inventing the 33% divorce rate stat, making up hypothetical quotes reacting to wedding announcement, and being a whining, self-pitying, embittered wretch peeing on your wedding parade)—NOW!!!