Regarding his behavior in general, I believe every negative thing he does will lose swing/undecided votes but cost him nothing among his hard core voters. In fact, I have a hard time seeing anything at all that would lose any of those voters.
No but you think if Trump wasn’t on trial he’d be having boring unnewsworthy campaign, repeating dull campaign slogans while kissing babies and eating pancakes in swing states diners? Of course not, he’d be saying outrageous racist offensive stuff, just like he did in 2016, ensuring he was on the front page of every news cycle.
Again they’d be all Trump all the time anyway, but I really don’t think it matters this time round. The market is saturated, media attention isn’t going to do much when everyone, literally everyone, is fully aware of who Trump is and what he stands for.
I don’t know what your news sources are, but mine no longer blare full-page headlines when Trump says or does outrageous racist stuff. It just isn’t newsworthy anymore. These days, I only see his name in the front page headline of the Chicago Tribune with regard to his legal issues*. And if or when he’s jailed for contempt, I expect those TRUMP JAILED headlines to be yooge.
(*Except of course this past Sunday, when the headline was something like “Trump campaign panicked,” but it was just referring to the 2016 campaign when the Access Hollywood video leaked. FFS.)
Anyway, I completely agree with this:
I put no difference.
By the time November rolls around, the final judgment of this case will be in, and Trumnp will either be found innocent, had a mistrial, be in jail or been given some other sentence. And other trials may be starting to ramp up. Relative to that, his spending a night or two in jail, for shooting off his mouth too much will have faded from the collective memory.
Tough call. I’ve just voted ‘hurt’… but sure, until it happens the first time, we won’t know. Yeah, I think a judge might try it for a day, or maybe even only a couple of hours with the warning that there’s more available where that came from. I guess we ought to find out what happens, because the alternative of putting up with his continued disrespect will do us no good at all.
I voted “hurt”, but the thing I can’t quite square is the thinking process of the undecided voters.
I mean, if they’ve gotten this far in the process and they haven’t made their minds up, I really don’t understand their thought processes, and don’t really know whether this would be a good or bad thing. They’re wildcards in my mind.
As for the typically GOP voters who aren’t hardcore Trump supporters, I think this will definitely hurt his chances. These are the people whose choice comes down to Democrats who they find odious, or Trump who they also find odious, but who is at least a Republican. I would think that this would be one of those things that would be one more black mark on Trump personally that might push them to hold their noses and vote Democrat.
Everyone else has pretty much already decided one way or the other, and this isn’t going to be something that’s going to change their minds.
Even just deciding not to vote at all will hurt him. I’ll take that.
If he goes to jail he’ll have 24hr SS protection and probably be held inside some sort of VIP detention area. I’m certain he won’t be in Gen Pop. Would his food be handled or provided by his SS detail or will he get regular jail food (baloney sandwiches)? I’m convinced he believes that going to jail will help him win votes and the election. Wasn’t it just last week that he compared himself to Nelson Mandela? The guy is desperate. Dangerous and desperate. I can totally see him raising money by selling pieces of his jail jumpers.
Sure, but what he believes and what will actually happen are two different things. And this thread is about what we think will happen.
Nelson Mandela was in jail for 27 years so as odious of a comparison as it may be, I’m not against Trump receiving a similar fate. If Trump goes to jail soon, he would be 104 years old when he got out. But I bet his poll numbers would be amazing and he’d immediately be the Republican nominee for the election in… 2052.
Even Luxury Jail will be intolerable to him. How many decades has it been since he last had to listen to what someone else had to say about where he has to stay, what he has to eat, when he can go to bed, all that?
We can see how much he’s chaffing under just a gag order. Actually going to jail will be orders of magnitudes worse.
I voted no effect precisely because this maxim is only true retrospectively.
Prospectively elections will be decided by the often largest group of potential voters: those who do not bother to vote.
Being jailed for contempt is merely on brand for Trump.
His base coming out is a given. It isn’t horrific enough to further motivate those against him. And often disenfranchised low information voters who usually don’t vote are not more likely to vote because of it in either direction, whichever way they may lean.
Yeah but it will break through to those kind of voters. Trump going to prison will be a huge huge deal, even if you aren’t paying attention in the slightest and not getting much political news, you’ll hear about it. It’s not going to get every single one of them to turn out and vote for Biden. But its going to convince a few to not vote for the jailbird, and this election may well be decide by a handful of voters in the swing states