Poll/Pool: When will Trump get out of the race?

Politics & Elections
41

One example is that it’s become traditional (though not legally required, if I remember correctly) to release a copy of a tax return to the public. Trump’s statement on that from last week: “I may tie it to the release of Hillary’s e-mails” (Link)

But he also promised to release a copy of his tax return years ago with the whole Birther controversy… and didn’t. (Link)

Substitute “e-mail” for “birth certificate” and “Hillary” for “Obama” and reporters won’t even have to re-write the stories.

Hey, look! I actually found an area in which Trump is consistent!

42

Ok, so none legally required, right?

Trump is getting away with a lot of stuff. I am sure not releasing the not-legally-required tax returns is just a minor thing. Or maybe he will release them, who knows.

His personal tax returns are quite meaningless anyway. His wealth is not in his salary, but in his corporations. And those don’t show up in his personal tax returns.

43

Hey, I can stipulate that she’s maybe half the liar he is, give or take.

But they’re both self-serving frauds, yeah? So, I basically agree.

44

I picked SC because he’ll want to leave at a moment when he can still be the biggest story, and there will be a lot of other news on Super Tuesday. I don’t have a lot of faith in my prediction, though; I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hang on until May or June.

When he does leave, it will be with the message that he’s doing it as a great gift to ¡Jeb! or :(Walker:(, telling everyone that he walks away the voice in the king’s ear, if not the power behind throne.

45

Trump will get out whenever he realizes he can’t fire the voters.

46

On the eve of the election, we get a press conference. An atypically well-spoken and erudite D. J. Trump will address the nation, excoriating the hateful, rabid elements of the electorate who placed a figure so unfit to lead a nation in a position to do just that. To this self-identified group of people, he will explain that they should be fired from America and his only regret is that such action is constitutionally forbidden. He will, instead, inform the Republican party that IT is fired and recommend they dredge up one of the dead fish who were culled in the primary to see if they are sober enough to take up their flag by election day.

Hillary & Bill Clinton will be hospitalized with multiple rib fractures caused by excessive and hysterical laughter, and they will enjoy the next eight years of their lives in the White House.

47

If he gives the Brewster’s Millions (Richard Pryor version) speech on the eve of the election, will there even be TIME to print new ballots by the following morning (let alone come up with a replacement candidate)?

48

No idea, but on the basis that he’ll stay in as long as it’s bringing publicity and stroking his ego but before he actually has to do something, I picked Jan 15 2016, just before the primaries. One thing for sure though. He’ll announce that he achieved some incredible thing that no one else has ever done, and that was his objective all along, and now it’s done, he humbly acknowledges his greatness for having done it, and now he’s out.

49

Nov 2016-

“Donald John Trump is projected to be the 45th president of the United States”.

Two hours later…

“Let’s now go to our correspondent who is at the celebrations at the Trump Tower in New York City where the president elect is expected to deliver a victory speech in about ten minutes”.

“Meanwhile also in New York, Hillary Clinton, flanked by husband Bill Clinton, daughter Chelsea and her family, has conceded and congratulated Donald Trump”.

50

You’re right! This is exactly what he will do.

51

Yup, he’s a quitter. Kim Jong Un would stay in and kill his uncle.

52

Any new guesses as to when The Donald will give up this charade of wanting to be president?

I doubt we’ll know any more after tonight’s debate, but it should be at least as entertaining as the last one, even if it causes one to despair at the depths to which politics has sunk in this country. We might even see new depths plumbed.

Although I originally predicted he’d be out by the end of this year, having read some of the posts here, I’ve changed my mind. I think it will take a primary loss or two before he throws a tantrum at the Republican party and Republican voters, calls them all stupid, and stomps off to sulk in one of his mansions.

I still refuse to believe that he really wants to be president. He’s just a world-class – nay, universe-class – attention whore on the ego trip of his lifetime. I pray (to the god in which I do not believe) that, whenever he drops out he will sufficiently anger his supporters so much that he’ll attain the status as permanent laughing-stock that he so richly deserves, and that no one will ever take him seriously again. (I can dream, can’t I?)

In any case, Trump’s run (and the participation of the other anti-immigrant Republican candidates) could actually have a beneficial effect, beyond its cringe-inducing entertainment value. The other day, NPR ran a story recalling how in 1994, California Republicans put forward Prop 187, which denied a wide range of public services to illegal immigrants and required police to turn over undocumented detainees to the INS. Governor Pete Wilson supported it, it passed, and was in effect for five years until being ruled unconstitutional.

As a result of the law, Hispanic and Latino citizens began registering to vote in droves, and others became citizens. The majority of them voted for Democrats, making the state solidly blue. Democrats have solid majorities in the legislature and registered Republicans are now 28% of the electorate.

Here’s the NPR story.

So if Trump’s hateful anti-immigrant message – echoed and amplified by other GOP candidates – can have the same effect nationwide, well, the country will be greatly indebted to him. (As long as it doesn’t depend on him actually being elected!) And perhaps it will lead the potty-trained Republicans to actually reshape their party into something like the mature and responsible force it once was.

53

If he were running in order to become President, then he would drop out as soon as it became evident that he couldn’t win. But that’s irrelevant, because that’s not why he’s running. He’s running to get attention, and so he’ll stay in for as long as he keeps getting attention, which will be at least until the election, and probably a bit later.

Now, for most candidates running to get attention, you have to ask how much they’re willing to spend for how much attention. But for Trump, getting attention is his job. That’s how he gets positive cashflow in the first place. So it’ll never be to his advantage to drop out.

54

That’s depressingly sound reasoning, Chronos.

55

I thought he would have been out a long time ago. There’s nothing in it for him. He’s tarnished his brand with minorities, and done very little to improve it among all but a tiny subset of the white population.

However, he’s still going, and as long as the non-Trump primary votes continue to be split by losers he will continue to appear to be doing well. By the time we get down to two or three candidates we’ll be past South Carolina, and at that point he may as well go the whole way.

So I voted for him losing in the general. In reality, I think he’ll drop out after the primaries (but by Og I hope he doesnt’).

56

No one has posted why Mr Trump will or would drop out.

Who can trump Trump on that GOP debate stage Wednesday night?

As long as Donald is in the limelight with any lead he will stay in the race.

I’m more worried about his helicopter or his private jet plane arriving safe
and sound every time he flies somewhere than I am about his dropping out.

I noticed Mr Christie on NBC this morning saying the GOP is not necessarily
being brought down by Mr Trumps actions …
spells thinking of being his running mate to me.

57

The problem is he won’t keep his lead. Once the establishment-but-loser candidates start dropping out they’ll no longer be splitting the non-Trump votes. Once they’re down to three or four candidates he’ll be well behind.

58

I don’t think he really expected to get this far, and to poll this well. Personally, I think it’s gone to his head- I bet he’ll stay in and then just flat-out lose (and it won’t be *his *fault, no).

59

The problem with that idea is that the crazy vote share, in total, is over 50% already.

60

Possibly, but it also makes sense that Christie would avoid offending the current Trump supporters. When Trump does drop out of the race, his third of the votes aren’t likely to go to someone who said they were all idiots.

You see this in lots of other places too, like Carson’s inability to give a straight scientific answer on the issue of Trump’s vaccine position during the debate. He felt the need to provide just enough wiggle room that the anti-vaxxers wouldn’t feel bad.