I have not yet decided who I will vote for, but I suspect that Obama will win.
If the election was today, Obama. A lot can happen between now and November, though.
I also agree that whoever wins will probably be a one-termer.
And I know gut-feelings mean absolutely nothing, but I’ve been having a weird gut-feeling that the next president will die in office. I hope not, of course.
Obama
I believe Obama will win it because of his policies, leadership abilities and fresh ideas. It’s his to lose though I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion he will win.
I don’t think the current (and near-future) state of political affairs will necessarily limit him, or the Dems to one term.
If his management style and leadership qualities he’s shown in managing a campaign mean anything, I think he will also quite capably guide us through the upcoming downturns and upheavals. Like a good leader should be able to do, he must remind us of (and bring us onboard with) the things he will need to do – popular and unpopular – that will be necessary strong medicine for the common good in the long run to dig us out of the hole we’ve been plunged into for eight years and steer us through the economic hard times we seem to be in for.
If he can begin to do that in his first term, Americans will, wisely this time, elect not to change captains of the ship in the middle of that journey.
Bob Barr. It’s complicated.
Which somehow reminds me of how, when the cardinals couldn’t agree on a pope they all liked, they chose one that was likely to die soon.
Though I must say I don’t have the gut feeling about either of them dying in office. Still, I can see that this is not an entirely unfounded fear in either case.
Hahahahahaaaaaa! That’d have to be one big physics bending, space-time tearing complication. 
I think we’re in for an Obama Administration, two of them.
O-BA-MA…say it!
SAY IT!
It’ll be someone with an Irish-sounding name. [Black-Irish joke omitted]
It’ll be Obamalmadingdong with about 60% of the vote. Over the course of the next 4 years his administration, through a demonstrated sincere effort to reduce tensions within the UN, will inspire the Arab nations to unify sufficiently to create a stabilizing occupational force in Iraq. An Arab occupation will rob insurgence of the desire to make war on their Arab brothers. The ensuing relative peace will facilitate a timely withdrawal of non-Arab forces from the country. Timely withdrawal will improve the credibility of the US position that we are not there to pillage the brown man. Nevertheless, the US is not likely to see greatly reduced oil prices, but we will instead leverage our consumer power to reduce oil prices for other nations who support our interests, thereby strengthening political ties between those countries and the US. Our trade deficit with China and our indirect control over world oil prices will put China on the mat with regard to human rights and ecology issues. China will either shape up or lose our custom to other more “reasonable” competition.
In the wake of profoundly calmer worldwide politics, the Republican Machine will either fall in line with the new order and put up a similarly smooth and energetic candidate; or explode in a cataclysmic surge of envy, xenophobia and raw religious hatred and hamstring Obama, offering their own ultraconservative candidate to restore fear in a god that punishes immorality and alliance with decadent Europe and heathen brownmen.
Either way, Obama only has 4 years.
If the election were today I think Obama would take it in a landslide, but as James Carville said on CNN recently “in politics 4 months of positive press can be completely undone in the next 4 minutes”. I can only say I HOPE it’s Obama, but we’ve got too many weeks left to really jump one way or the other. (If Bush really does have Osama bin Laden chained up in the White House basement per the conspiracy rumors, now would be a good time for him to trot him out.)
I haven’t even heard that rumor. Presumably you’re using hyperbole to describe a rumor that bin Laden is in custody, as opposed to actually being in chains underneath the White House, but I haven’t heard that at all. Is it new? Is it popular?
McCain will win. There’s too many racists and Muslim-haters who’ll come out of the woodwork to vote against Obama. You’ll all be absolutely shocked at how many will vote against Obama as opposed to votong FOR anyone.
(Yes, I know Obama’s not a Muslim. Millions do not.)
It’ll probably be the latter. The Pubbies don’t have the good sense their imaginary maker gave them, and anyway, white-hot, irrational hatred is the one thing they’re really good at.
Oh, I think the O man is smart enough to know the GOP will spend an inordinate amount of time and resources attempting to destroy him in his first term as well as his chances for a second. They’ll thrust, he’ll parry. The more obvious it is that they’re gunning for him, the easier it’ll be Obama to sail into his second term.
+1
Dennis Kucinich.
…what?
Taking a poll like this on this board sort of a foregone conclusion.
Within the last week, I saw an AOL poll where McCain out-polled Obama 2 to 1 and was leading in every state.
shrugs
I really don’t care for either one.
(Edited to add: I just went back there, and it’s much closer: 42% for McCain to 39% for Obama, but this time there were third party candidates thrown in.)
Here’s the first poll I was taking about.
It still shows a 2 to 1 edge for McCain, and still leading in every state.
I know, I know, Dio, it’s not scientific. But then again, neither is the poll on this board.
Hoping for: Obama
Think it will be: McCain
btw, does Mike Gravel even remember he’s still running for president?
I don’t think merely voting against someone ends up being very successful on election night.
Look at Kerry’s results in 2004. No one actually voted for the jerk, every vote for him was actually just a vote against Bush. Didn’t work.
ETA: Prediction: Obama.