Poll: When Will The Iraq War Wagon Roll?

Yeah, someone had to start this kinda thread. I’ve been thinking about doing this poll – unless someone else started first – ever since I read the 2003 Celebrity Death Poll (which closed on 31 December 2002).

The Iraq War Wagon Poll

Objective - Who can predict the following with respect to a war with Iraq:

  1. When will the war begin?
  2. When will overt hostilities cease?
  3. Will Allied forces find direct evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction? If so, how long until the WMDs are found from the start of the war?

Bonus Question - What will be the closing stock averages of New York’s DJIA and London’s FTSE indexes the first business day of the war?

Bonus Question II - Will Saddam be captured alive, killed or found dead, or escape?

Except for the bonus questions, your responses must be within one hour of the actual incident time.
Notes:

a) The current hostilities occuring as Allied forces fly the no-fly zones do not count in this poll.
b) The ending of overt hostilities is defined as when the air and ground wars move from offensive to defensive. Yes, kinda vague but that’s the way it is. Deal with it.
c) Information provided by the CNN and/or the BBC web sites will be used to establish the times and other information. Since the SDMB is located in Chicago, all times must be Chicago time.
d) Submissions to this poll will no longer be accepted six hours prior to the start of the war. Yes, this means the actual closing date and time cannot be determined beforehand. It also means some poll submissions will be disqualified.
e) UN support is not in this poll. It is assumed Bush will do what he wants, when he wants, regardless of any UN resolutions.


What prompts this poll?

1 - Well, duh!
2 - Why not?!
3 - B-52 bombers from Barksdale Air Force Base were deployed early this morning for locations unknown. At the start of Gulf War I, similar bomber deployments also occured within a very short time of the war starting. I assume war immediacy will escalate when first reports of B2 bombers are deployed from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri for locations unknown.

Yes, this is a morbid poll. There is no reward for the winner(s) except the knowledge they have been sufficiently attuned to this whole mess in order to be a winner. Or, they just got lucky. Consider this poll in the same vein as reality television - few admit to watching such TV programs, yet the ratings say otherwise.

I’m thinking the war will start in 3 weeks. A month ago I would have said by March 1, but that was assuming there would be troops and tanks in Turkey by now, which was delayed.
Last time the diplomats won the tussle in the Oval Office and ended the war too soon. This time the military won’t let them pick the timing of anything. It’s all a matter of getting enough troops in place, and they won’t wait past the window of spring heat.

  1. March 15, 2003

  2. April 9, 2003

  3. No. But Bush et al will fabricate any “evidence” they need.

Bonus I: Dow: 8,512 London FTSE 100: 3,852

Bonus II: Escape.

1-March 18 2003, 4am CST. The idea will be catch them while they’re still hungover from St. Patrick’s Day.

2- Iraqis surrender April 4, 2003 at 4 pm CST.

3- No WMD will be found. The war will te the equivalent of a ticket for going 36 mph in a 35 mph zone.

Bonus 1- DOW 6,666
London 3,333

Bonus 2- Captured

  1. March 10, 2003.

  2. April 1, 2003.

  3. No direct evidence of WMD. But they’ll trot out for our moral comfort some evidence suggesting that they were preparing to create WMD or that had been used in the past to create WMD.

Saddam: still at-large after hostilities cease; captured as a war-criminal within 2 years.

FTR The last time we did this. Most of the predicted dates there have passed by now though. Which is good, right?