…according to one analyst, that means Kerry is gonna win. Link.
Not attempting to grind any axes here, and I’m not really asking for opinions, and I’m making a statement, not asking a question, so I decided to put this here. Mods, move as you see fit.
70 plus views and no replies? Consider this a pity post, I suppose. Anyways, one thing’s for certain: About half the analysts are gonna be wrong…
Peace, Sistuh Twicks.
The guy at electoral-vote.com says pretty much the same thing, that the undecideds tend to break for the challenger. He has a chart up today (10-22) that talks about some possible outcomes depending on what percentage of the undecideds go for which candidate.
Some loudmouth on Air America this morning (loudmouth on Air America, I know, that doesn’t really narrow it down does it) was saying that people are undecided in this election because they don’t want to vote for Bush, and the choice is between voting for Kerry and staying home. I have no idea upon what he’s basing this but he was talking to Zogby as he said it and Zogby didn’t audibly disagree.
My opinion? It’s all going to come down to voter turnout, to which party gets more warm eligible bodies to the polling stations on November 2. Isn’t that a nice weaselly statement? Can I become a paid political analyst now?
Seriously, there are two groups of eligible voters that I know haven’t been polled at all. The first is those eligible voters who have no landline telephone, only a cell phone or no phone service at all; and the second is American citizens outside the US. American embassies and county election boards are reporting record numbers of requests for overseas absentee ballots this year; no one really knows how many of the no-landline folks are planning to vote. These two groups put together could swing the result in some states, where the two candidates are neck-and-neck. Like my home state, Pennsylvania, and yes, my ballot has been mailed off.
I can credit Bush with making me get off my ass early enough to register and then vote by absentee ballot. Even better it’s a battle ground state.
I think one big difference this election is that there were a singnificant amount of voters last time that cast a spoiler vote for Nadar. Hell, my vote doesn’t count anyway, I’ll “protest” and vote Nadar. Well, at lot of those people now rue the day they were motivated enough to vote but thought there would be no difference. You’ll still have a hardcore group of people that will do the spoiler or protest vote, but I think a significant amount of spoilers will now decide they really do need to cast their vote for the lesser of two evils rather than protest.
It seems more likely that, if there is a true dead heat (Kerry and Bush split both the popular and the electoral vote), the race will go to Bush, since a tie in the EC throws the decision to the Congress.
It’s not a dead heat. Here’s a summary of the latest polls. Bush has a small lead.
The battleground states are what it’s all about right now, though. And that’s a much more difficult prediction, because the polls are all over the map. Kerry could very easily lose the popular vote this time and win the electoral college.
My prediction: If that happens, all the people who spent the last four years screaming about how outdated the electoral college is will suddenly become very quiet about it.
And a lot of people who thought the electoral college was just fine before will come out calling for its abolition.
I’ve been thinking the same thing. Lots of “red” states where Kerry voters are few and far between, thus localizing heavy Bush majorities rather than spreading them out. Lots of “blue” states with mild but persistent Kerry leads.
You automatically have to add a few points to Kerry for the national polls. They don’t account for new voters, for cell phones or for overseas votes. That means they are missing almost the entire youth vote and an awful lot of the absentee votes from Americans abroad are going to Kerry. My father is a 22 year State Department dip now doing a tour in Brazil. He says the sentiment abroad among Americans- at least among the civilians- is almost violently anti-Bush…they have to reap the consequences of Bush’s anti-international dick waving, after all. The absentee vote from the military has always gone more or less for the Pub, but there’s a lot of resentment in the miltary right now, and more minorities as well. That military vote is no longer as solid for the Pubs as it once was. They’ll still probably win a majority of it but it’s not a blow out any more.
Kerry is leading today at Electoral-Vote.com, btw.
Don’t watch the numbers, Kerry vs. Bush. Watch Bush vs. Bush. If Bush goes over 50% in the polls, he should win. If he can’t cross 48%, he will lose. Undecideds break for the challenger by more than 5 to 1. The story is going to be the turnout. High turnouts historically favor Democrats, and this turnout should be historic.
My guess is you will still see a fair number of protest type votes in the non-swing states. An informal poll of people here where I live in Mass. and in New York where my family lives (both states predicted to go heavily for Kerry) reveals many people contemplating votes for Nader or one of the other minor candidates. The thinking is a vote for Bush or Kerry will be “wasted” either way, so why not make a statement?
A two- to four-point lead, if we ignore Fox (which I think we probably can). I’m not seeing margin-of-error stats there, but I’m sure they’re in, say, the three- to five-point range.
I’d call that a dead heat.
There’s only one “evil” in this election and it isn’t Kerry, a good, strong man who’ll make a good, strong president.
Personally, I think the most suprising Kerry votes will come from Republicans who have an attack of conscience when in the voting booth.
Sure. That’s partisanship for you.
Diogenes the Cynic said:
But there is very little evidence that cell phone users are Kerry voters. Same with new voters and youth voters - if they trend Kerry, it’s not by much. And some people are saying that the youth vote is actually slightly in favor of Bush.
Also, if you’re going to factor in the absentee ballots, you have to consider the military absentees, and they break huge for Bush. Somewhere between 2:1 and 4:1, depending on which analysis you read. If anything, the military is even more pro-Bush now than it was four years ago. Not only because there’s a war on, but because Kerry’s anti-war stance at the end of Vietnam really does leave a bad taste in the mouth of many military people.
There are three or four of these electoral vote counting cites out there, and they are all different. Some show Bush leading, some show Kerry leading.
Twickster said:
while any individual poll may have a margin of error of 3-4%, when you do a ‘meta analysis’ of all the polls, the margin of error goes down. The methodology isn’t perfect, because the polls do not use the same sampling methods. RealClearPolitics shows an average Bush lead across all the polls of 2.8%. That’s probably just a little higher than the margin of error in the meta-analysis. So I think it’s safe to say that as of this moment Bush has a slight lead.
But that’s splitting hairs. The lead is so close that it’s probably within our margin of error of understanding exactly what the electorate will do (not just the margin of error of the polls, but other sources of error such as fraud, intimidation, last-minute breaks one way or the other, etc).
In the last election, Bush had a 5-point lead going into the last weekend of the race. It ended up a tie. Most of that was probably due to the ‘late hit’ about Bush’s DUI, but it could also mean that we just aren’t as good as we think at predicting ultimate behaviour at the polls.
The bottom line is that both sides are going to be biting their nails on election night, and no one will be surprised if either man wins.
I know I couldn’t do another month of this without ulcer medication and I’m not even an employee of one of the teams.
Which ulcer medication you on? I usually prescribe the Amoxil-Clarithromycin-omeprazole triad for two weeks, then maintain after that on Ranitidine 150-300 two times a day if needed. 
Me, I find I need pantoprazole for maintenance. Double dosage during campaign season.
My doctor said “Mylanta”
QtM, I’m not on ulcer meds, and as of the moment, by some miracle, I don’t quite even yet have an ulcer. That’s a situation that can’t last if this damn election tension doesn’t get itself over with soon, though.
In this case, I think no one will really know til that day.
Fun tv!
I know my candidate will Not win, though.