Predict it here! The last living Beatle

Cafe Society
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41

Some have said to bet on the younger = McCartney. I don’t disagree.

But there’s an odd effect that gets bigger as you get out towards the end of the actuarial tables. Your remaining life expectancy doesn’t go up as you get older, but your half-life and hence likely age at death actually gets later & later. Just not at a one-for-one rate or else you’d (statistically) live forever.

Here’s the official mortality tables used by the US Social Security Administration. It’s also used by the IRS & a bunch of other legislative stuff involving life expectancies. Obvious the Beatles are Brits, but the same concept holds although doubtless the British government has tables with slightly different numbers on them.

The easy thing to understand is the “life expectancy” column. The simple interpretation is "If today is your 0th, 10th, 75th, 80th, whatever-th birthday, the life expectancy column shows how many years it’ll take for half the currently living people of your sex and birthdate to die. It’s your surviving birthday cohort’s half-life.

John & Ringo were born 2 years less 3 weeks apart. So 101 weeks. We can ignore the 3 weeks as noise and just say they’re exactly 2 years apart, currently 78 & 80. For comparison purposes we can ignore the fact their birthdays were around July 1 and now it’s mid-Sep; they’re both affected (almost) equally by that difference.

The table says a 78 year old birthday boy (John) has a half-life of 9.37 years and so is half-dead at 78.00 + 9.37 = 87.37 years.

The 80 yo birthday boy (Ringo) has a half-life of 8.28 years and so is half-dead at 80.00 + 8.28 = 88.28 years.

Yes, the sorta surprising result is the 80yo is probably going to live to be older than the 78 yo. But only 1-ish year older so he’s still going to be the first to die, given his 2 year head start in the race to the grave.


My bottom line, and knowing exactly zero about their health history, living arrangements, earlier partying habits, etc. is

  1. Older Ringo will die first before younger Paul does AND
  2. Older Ringo will live to a greater age than younger Paul does.

Or at least that’s the way to bet given no other info about them as individuals.

42

Can somebody 'splain this to me?

43

Shoe polish as hair dye, I think.

44

They are referring to the remarkably black hair on his head and face.

45

Almost certainly and probably by a sizeable margin, but for medical support the difference at that level is essentially zero. Ringo is very wealthy and can easily afford any treatment Paul could. Medicine is expensive, but there IS an upper limit.

46

Especially if one’s basic needs are covered by the NHS.

47

No wonder I wasn’t getting it, it was too obvious. I like that he wears it so short, no longer trying to look like he did 40 years ago. But he’d look even better not coloring it.

48

I know this is a shock, but not everyone that age has gone completely grey.

When my father died at 87 he had some grey at his temples and a sprinkling through the rest of it, but most of his hair was still black. He’d been accused of coloring it for decades but he really hadn’t.

Granted, that’s a bit unusual, however, this recent photo of Ringo shows mostly still dark hair with a sprinkling of grey that would be near-impossible to replicate with hair treatments. Folks, that is his natural hair color and despite his age he still has quite a bit of dark hair.

And if sometimes he decides to color it - so what? Who cares? It’s his hair, he can wear it however he wants.

49

Except his hair was never that dark when he was younger, so maybe his is prematurely black. But I agree with you about how much it doesn’t matter. He has class and style.

50

Ringo was a sickly child. Hard to say how that has affected the rest of his life though, it could be an indication that he’s a survivor able to fully heal from some very serious illnesses.

51

In my voting I had to factor in fame: Nobody is going to think to themselves “Imagine how famous I would be if I killed Ringo!”.

52

Yeah, but Keith Richards has been embalmed. Quite a feat to do that on a living person, but he managed it.

As for the question, I really don’t know. Ringo is two years older, but that is not a big deal. Can I vote for a dead heat?

53

I think you mean a dead cool. Heat is the first thing the dead lose.

54

What if they burn to death? Or get cremated?

55

IIRC, when it comes to those who stand to inherit aristocratic titles, if several in the line of succession die simultaneously, as in a plane crash, British law considers them to have died in order of their claim to the title - that is, it passes briefly through each. As it happens, Paul and Ringo are not both in line to become Duke of Liverpool.

Or is he mummified? I can’t quite tell.

56

Are either one in line for Duke of Earl?

57

No shit?

I really can’t tell the difference…

58

Ringo. He’s shorter, thus will need less energy to keep running.

59

I don’t care what Snopes says. My money is on the dexterous Ringo; not the sinister Paul.

60

Ringo and Paul are both lefties.