Short version: how will he do from here, now that he is transitioning trying to win the nomination to winning as many delegates as possible in order to have the power to impact the platform as much as possible?
Slightly longer version: let’s transition our delegate count discussion. Can he win enough from here that he increases his power to impact the platform, or does he clock in a performance that diminishes his potential impact?
Up to date he has won about 45% of the pledged delegates available so far with about 42% of the popular vote.
Most of the states coming up are theoretically good for him demographically. Oregon for example would be expected to go for him as well as MD went for Clinton. Montana and both Dakotas also are, well, let’s just say those states are likely to “hue” his way. The bigger prizes though are CA (where he is allegedly to be focusing his remaining resources) and NJ.
So question one: How will he do with the remaining delegates? Over 50%? Less? Keep hitting his 44%? Drop further? Popular vote? Should pretty much follow delegate count from here, not exactly but not likely very different.
Question two: What sort of impact would each of those possible performances have, if any, on his power to get Clinton to adopt the portions of his platform that differ from her own currently stated policies and priorities?
For the little it is worth my guess, without actually running any numbers, is for question one, that despite those favorable states he continues to win fewer than 50% of the pledged delegates outstanding and probably keeps no better than his 44% standard, and that he convincingly loses California, by then maybe even by double digits.
And question two, if that then I think his potential impact on Clinton’s positions and on the future of the party drops in value. Clinton will be from this point on be promoting the platform and priorities that she will be sticking with for the general, which include her maximal appeals to the interests of those who voted against her. Even a strong performance by Sanders will not get her to budge any further than that. She will not adopt free college for all, she will not make Medicare-for-all replacement for ObamaCare a priority, she will not endorse an absolute ban on fracking. Her version of breaking up the banks will be as it has been, via the mechanisms already part of Dodd-Frank. Getting more of a seat at the table in the future administration will be less likely for as he fails to win very much of significance from here, as his upcoming weakness convinces most that there is less desire for revolution among those who voted for him than he and some core supporters think there is.
Alternative perspectives?