I expect Trump/U.S. federal efforts to fizzle out in the next few months.
However I expect a very strong, long term reaction in Canada: I think Canadians of all political beliefs now believe it is crazy to be so economically vulnerable to the U.S. So there will be a major effort to increase trade with countries other than the U.S.–for example China.
I assume the US would immediately be expelled from NATO. Trump would see that as a win-win.
The US can’t veto the UN General Assembly.
Trump has one follower that is pretty smart and he has given him free reign to do crazy assed shit.
Don’t bet on it, the policy is drill baby drill.
I have to hope there would be a sizable part of the military that would refuse the order and take their chances with NJP or court martial. I also have to hope that the Republican half of the legislature would at last wake up to the fact that there is a lunatic in the White House and would take steps to remove him.
Trump is pushing to get rid of those that might defy his orders, leaving the indoctrinated. I wouldn’t bet on them disobeying orders back when I was in the U.S.A.F., and I sure as hell wouldn’t bet on it now.
That’s why I lean yes.
Of course, it should also be considered that there’s a range of possible military reactions depending on the specific nature of the orders. Crippling air strikes on Peace River hydroelectric facilities? That order would be followed without question. But a straight-up demand to nuke Ottawa without any prior provocation? That might give anyone pause. Lots of airspace between those options, too.
If there is not enough pause to actually stop the action, then it doesn’t matter.
I think that’s unlikely. Trump will want Parliament intact for the ritual humiliations he’ll want when we surrender. Pissing on the eternal flame, demolishing the Peace Tower, stuff like that.
The PM giving him a BJ will probably be done in a tasteful private ceremony..
This is my position also, but I’ve overestimated the rationality/sound-mindedness of polical leaders in the past, so I would say that while that’s the most likely outcome it is by no means guaranteed.
You may be right. I would bet, however, on a full scale revolution attempt in this country, which would mean that the military would be required to kill our own citizens.
More and more of them every day believe that only applies to “real” Americans. Political opponents become political enemies become enemies of the state.
The most likely outcome? Trump continues to says stupid things for a while about Canada becoming another state, His idea gains no real popular support among the American people. He continues to fight the court system in his own country because his administration simply refuses or is incapable of complying with the law, even as his Republican congress is furiously rewriting the law to favor his policies. Americans’ opinions of Canada will drop a bit because of Trump’s rhetoric but Trump is good at making enemies, so Americans’ vitriol will be spread among targets far and wide, and Canada will catch only a little of it. Canadians’ opinions of Americans will sink into the toilet. Both countries will subtly make visitors from the other feel unwelcome, which will extend to things like increased friction at border crossings in both directions as the countries stop cooperating on things like Nexus and generally just harass visitors at the border. Trade between the nations will drop precipitously at first, then begin to regrow only very slowly.
The US economy continues to melt down due to tariffs and general uncertainty over whether the US will stand behind its debts. Congress starts working diligently on tax cuts while there are still some tax receipts to stop collecting. Then, Republicans will lose control of the house in the next election and the idea that government can do anything in America will seem like a pipe dream. After a several protracted fights about the budget, the debt limit, taxes, and perhaps one or two more impeachments, Trump will be tired. He will have long stopped talking about Canada, until someday somebody asks him about his intentions, and he says, “Canada? Nobody even goes there anymore because it’s filled with socialists who tanked their economy.”
In the meantime, Canada is shifting its trade policy to favor Europe. It’s shifting its defense policy, at tremendous cost, to potentially resist a southern invasion. It’s seeking intelligence sources other than the US. It’s investing in new arms from its own defense industry and from Europe. it does this for 5-20 years. When an invasion doesn’t come in that time, and during some future economic downturn in Canada, the level of defense spending will be used as populist wedge issue of whatever party is out of power and Canada will begin to scale back.
Within a generation, almost all of this will be forgotten by both sides, but the level of camaraderie between the nations will settle at a new lower level. But also in the meantime, Russia will have rebuilt its military and China will have wildly expanded its global influence by filling two or three critical niches abandoned by America: reliable trading partner, backer of stable currency and debt instruments, and provider of foreign aid.
I’m not saying war between the US is impossible. I think it’s just way less likely than the US just making ruinous trade and foreign policy decisions by stepping on its own dick. ETA: And, the US’s idiocy will force Canada to do the same.
which would mean that the military would be required to kill our own citizens.
The Posse Comitatus Act is a United States federal law (18 U.S.C. § 1385, original at 20 Stat. 152) signed on June 18, 1878, by President Rutherford B. Hayes that limits the powers of the federal government in the use of federal military personnel to enforce domestic policies within the United States .
I have more trust in the military following that law than the dumpf trying to circumvent it.
The military can refuse an illegal order and I think they would.
Governors oversea the State militia - hard to know which way the red states would go on deployment…
Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations, and they went to war with each other. Would that provide Trump with justification for going to war with Canada?
So would Putin. This is clearly why Trump is hostile to NATO.
I think the most realistic outcome is that the idea dies with Trump, hopefully sooner rather than later.
If he does accomplish any kind of invasion, NATO is not coming to help as they recently said:
He already spends much of his time giving optimistic speeches to the American public (or at least, to his supporters). One would think he’d welcome the opportunity to do more of this.
The presidency already demands a level of engagement that seems beyond him, and yet he’s still president. One can only assume that he delegates the boring stuff to his underlings, or (as discussed in the “Who is really calling the shots on all Trump’s executive orders?” thread) that he just endorses whatever unsolicited plans his cronies and lobbyists manage to pitch to him. I don’t see how he’d need to change any of this behaviour if there were a war.
I expect a military conquest of Canada, followed by an extremely brutal occupation where the Canadians are punished for daring to defy Trump. Lots of murder, rape, torture. The inevitable violent response of the Canadian public and future resistance movement will probably eventually create enough frustration that US troops will withdraw and all major Canadian population centers be destroyed with nuclear weapons.
The US public will loudly cheer it all, mostly because by then they’ll be executed or worse if they don’t.
I expect him or his successor will at some point withdraw from the UN, expel them from the US, and destroy the UN headquarters. Or possibly just shoot them all, post Trump.
Maybe not a revolution, but a civil war would be more likely. I can imagine certain states or regions of the US would find the idea of a war against Canada abhorrent and decide to secede rather than take part in it. This almost happened in the War of 1812 when New England, which opposed the war, threatened to secede unless it was brought to a close.