I’m in Ohio.
I say McCain, by a slim margin, but Obama still wins the election.
CA will go Obama by a large margin.
CT for Obama by a respectable margin.
NV will go to McCain by less than 1 point.
I’m on the border, Minnesota and Wisconsin both fall to Obama by more than 10 points each.
MA for Obama in a cakewalk.
(And since it’s so close to me and MA is boring in this election, I’m going to call NH for Obama by ~3 points).
I think Obama will win Ohio, and reasonably comfortably. I think Indiana is in play this election, and if Indiana is close, how can McCain win Ohio?
I’m predicting a slim Obama victory in the swing state of New Jersey of only 16 points. (Apparently, some saw New Jersey as a swing state in 2004, and in later Senate and Gubernatorial elections, but they ended up being strong Democratic wins.) Predicting an Obama Electoral College win at 291-247, with Obama winning the Gore and Kerry states + CO + VA + NV. Also predicting a Phillies World Series championship! Go Phils!
Colorado will go to Obama by 7 points. Republicans here are voting for Palin. Nobody likes John McCain in Colorado. He lost to Mitt Romney in the primaries by 30 points. The problem is, a lot of the establishment (country club) Republicans hate Palin as well. I can’t see them getting all worked up to turn out for that ticket, especially if it means standing in line for a half hour with a bunch of excited Obama fans.
This election will complete Colorado’s turn from red to blue. In 2004 the State General Assembly went from Republican control to Democratic. In 2006 we gained a Democratic Senator, Governor, and a majority of Democrats in the US House. In 208 we will help elect a Democratic President, a second Democratic US Senator, and possibly one more member of the House.
Ten years ago you could ave gotten 100-1 odds on that happening.
The hell? There have been several polls showing MS with a single-digit McCain lead. You think MS will go for McCain more than Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming, Alabama, and most of Nebraska?
Virginia will go for Obama by at least 5 points.
As for the electoral vote, I’m predicting 393-145, with Obama winning every state currently in his favor on electoral-vote.com+MT/ND+GA. I’m a little leery of predicting a victory in WV or AZ yet.
Obama takes Ohio in a nailbiter.
I’m going to guess that FL, OH, MO, VA, and NC all go the same way. I’m not sure which way, but I’ll bet they are all in the same category.
I live in* Joisey*, but spend a lot of time in* Philulphia*. It’s no surprize or leap to predict Obama will handily win NJ and, contrary to McCain’s delusions, PA as well.
I think that Florida will go to McCain by the slimmest of margins and that there will be much moaning about irregularities in the voting process.
I’ve seen the Get Out the Vote efforts here in Montana, and I think that the Likely Voter Models are seriously underestimating Obama turnout. Really, I think it’s too close to call, but I’m already on record in another thread as predicting Obama, so I’ll go with that. Either way, though, it’ll be a squeaker (maximum 2% lead for the winner).
Everyone thinks that Virginia’s going to Obama and that southwest VA is the key, and the polls seem to agree. As someone who lives here, well…I’ll just say that I have a nice, clean hat sitting on the kitchen counter with a bottle of ketchup and a salt shaker. While I fervently hope I have occasion to eat it, I suspect that on Nov. 5th, it’ll be sitting atop my head.
WA for Obama by 10%.
I just don’t hold out much hope on the state being progressive. I think it will probably be about a 1-2% margin, if that.
And by “Us”, I of course mean “We”.
I’m really not a grammar-nazi, especially when it comes to busting myself, but that was just irritating the crap out of me. But allow me to say that I’m shocked … shocked! … that no one called me on it.
I’ll post again what I posted in the “Forked” thread:
I am handling some poll-watching duties for the Obama campaign in Georgia. This is the day that advance voting opens up on a broad basis here. (There had been one or two polls open per county before this week.)
This morning I went to pick up my badge from county election officials. There was a sign-in sheet for poll watchers. Emblematic of Obama’s superior organization, 12 official Obama poll watchers had signed in and picked up their badges, while McCain had…0.
I stopped by two polling stations to check for problems. The lines were absolutely astonishing. I counted approximately 500 people waiting to vote at each polling place, and this was mid-afternoon, the time of day when even on the principle election day, lines are usually reduced to a dribble.
I can promise you that the people I saw were not waiting for three hours to vote McCain. 
Meanwhile, my just-turned-18 nephew is champing at the bit to vote for Obama, as are many of his friends. They are planning to vote early. Now these are kids from Atlanta’s Republican suburbs, many of whose parents support McCain. They have been squabbling with their parents over politics for weeks – and tuning in nightly to the Daily Show. This is a cohort I believe pollsters are missing. The kids are voting this year.
Another factor: I have quite a lot of Republican friends, and none of them are enthusiastic about McCain. I have a sneaky feeling that when they show up at the polls on election day and see a line stretching around the block, they might just decide that voting for McCain is not worth the wait.
Look for an Obama upset in Georgia, and look for Saxby Chambliss(R) to lose his Senate seat to Jim Martin(D).
If I am wrong, I blame Diebold!