So I assume from the vibe on here nowadays, that Kanye will have a 0.00% voting impact in the states where Republicans were originally propping him up, for their “steal the African-American vote” ratfuckery?
(I’m stealing that word by the way, so thank you to whichever one of you first put it out there) 
The popular use of the term ratfucking can easily be attributed to one Donald Segretti.
To my knowledge he does not now and never has posted on this board but I assume he would appreciate your thanks.
Just saw the latest FOX News poll. The headline worried me a bit saying Biden’s lead had narrowed, but it only went from 53% to 52 in the last month, but that is up 1 from Sept. Some key numbers comparing Biden to 2016-
Women overall - 2 pts more than Hillary got
Suburban women - +18
Voters under 30 - +2
Independents +32
Seniors +19
White men - +13
Rural voters - +8
White evangelicals - +11
Trump has lost support among all groups except:
Hispanics - -20
Blacks - -19
I’m a little skeptical about that, I know Biden has lost some support there, but that much?
I don’t understand how someone can spend four years making life miserable for blacks and Hispanics and yet still maintain a similar level of support from them.
The beatings will continue until moral improves.
I work in a highly Hispanic area, but my points here are purely anecdotal:
Many Hispanic people in my area are very anti-abortion and even though I think you have to be a fool to think Trump cares about abortion, his 2015 shift to “pro life” is a feature for some folks.
Great post overall. Ref this:
Don’t forget that Daylight Saving time ends Sunday, so sunset on Tue will be an hour later on the clock that it was/is last night / tonight.
As to rainy and cold that’s just a symptom of living in the wrong part of the country 
Seriously, there are large elements of the Hispanic and black communities are active in very conservative churches and very very socially conservative. I’m hoping that the Democrats didn’t underestimate this factor but I think they usually do.
Totally just my observation here on how the Democratic party messes up with the Latinx population. I’d love to hear from Latinx people on this.
FOX is getting more desperate. Their main headline right now is about how AOC might take over the party after Dems increase House majority.
Thanks Fox! Now progressives have even more motivation to go to the polls to vote for Biden. They were lukewarm before, but you’ve just tipped them over the edge!
Those who were scared of socialist marxist boogeymen were already in the bag for Trump anyway.
In other words, Fox is calling for the Boogaloo Boyz, Michigan militia, etc., to provide polling place “security” on Tue. It’s their last chance to save the Republican whitist dream!
Reasons why I’m confident in a Biden win:
Reasons why my confidence is less than total:
Overall, though, I’m calling a big win for Biden–not a landslide, but big enough to hold off the ratfuckery. I’m also predicting a big win in the Senate, including some of the marginal pickups like Texas, Georgia, and (please God) South Carolina. Not here in KY, though, sadly.
I hope they count all the votes cast legally in all 50 states. If they do that, I’m a lot less worried. I still see Trump getting ballots tossed out and the Supreme Court backing him.
I’m less worried about Biden losing than I am:
Believe me, it can happen.
It’s this I worry about. Biden has the votes (but then so did Hillary).
I really hope you’re right. But as you said, “nothing is beneath” DJT and his crew.
I think he can win by more than 3 million. Can he win by enough to win the electoral college? Yes. Can he win by enough to overcome the Electoral College and Cheating?
I think so.
Your entire post expresses perfectly my own thoughts on the election. The only notions I’d add to your analysis are these:
Pollsters and media both are wary of slowing any momentum or enthusiasm among voters. They aren’t going to overtly indicate in any way that it’s probably in the bag for Biden, because they want everyone frightened enough of another 4 years to make the effort to come out and vote right up to the last minute.
As I know has been noted several times in this thread, there are far fewer undecideds this time around. If the SCOTUS thing is a factor, it’s possible they’re less fired up because The Sixth Justice is already an accomplished deed. Maybe more reason to stay home, not less.
I’ll go further: The reason McConnell made sure to “confirm” Barrett (they broke so many rules, it doesn’t really qualify as a bona fide confirmation) before the election rather than after is because he knows he is going to lose control of the Senate. If he had any confidence Republicans were going to win, he would have used the confirmation as a tool to increase Republican turnout. 70% of the country would have preferred for them to wait. That’s even a lot of Republicans and independents. He didn’t wait.
As The New York Times’ Nate Cohn points out, Biden would get more than 300 electoral votes if the 2016 errors repeated themselves exactly…It’s even conceivable that Biden will be underestimated in the polls. Remember, Barack Obama did better in 2012 than the polls suggested he would.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/polling-trump-biden-analysis/index.html
Some totally unscientific and purely anecdotal experience that gives me a glimmer of hope - I voted yesterday (waited in line 5 hours to do it) amongst a giant crowd of people, corralled into a series of lines stretched across a massive church parking lot. EVERYONE was wearing masks except for ONE guy who looked like a caricature of an “angry old white man”, though he was not wearing any sort of Trump apparrel, his general posture was enough to give it away. I was expecting an even mixture of masked and unmasked, each shooting daggers at the other. Also, I only observed one person with any kind of Trump identifier - not a hat, but some kind of scarf or bandana which he wore dejectedly around his neck.
I predict if he loses he will leave the US and not come back until he gets a plea deal with no prison time.