Purely anecdotal, but most of the “Latinx” guys that I personally know, would not be familiar with that term, or the social culture that it sprang from. These are not woke guys. They have very parochial attitudes about life. One of my closest friends, who’s Mexican-born and Mexican-raised, though he has been living here for most of his adult life, overlaps significantly in terms of general worldview with the average white Trump supporter. Except that he loathes Trump because of Trump’s vendetta against Mexicans. But most Mexican-American guys I know would knock your teeth down your throat with their torque wrenches if you called them “Latinx” and they knew that you were willfully lumping them in with non-binary people or whatever.
From - again, purely anecdotal - evidence, I suspect the GOP would pick up an absolutely massive number of Hispanic voters if they simply shut the fuck up about “protecting the border”.
I’d have to agree. If the Republican party was dominated at the top by non-racist social conservatives pushing a matching agenda, it would be the party of large segments of most substantial minority communities in the United States, all of which either skew socially conservative or at least have large socially conservative blocks. Politics would be stood in its head as white racists would have nowhere to go and Republican vs. Democrat would be much more clearly the battle of the social agendas.
Unfortunately white racists are too large of a voting block to ignore and too many Republicans are themselves white racists (not all, but enough). So they have to double-down on the dog whistles to try and motivate a slowly declining base.
Not going to happen. If there is a decisive result that goes against him, he will shout and scream and threaten violence from his militias (note how “militias” sounds almost exactly like “malicious”) and proudboys and magats in boats until they drag him out of the WH by the ankles.
I’ve posted this on two other threads but I’m making it an official prediction. The drive through votes in Harris County, TX will be thrown out by Republican judges.
It may be a moot point, if Moscow Mitch is experiencing the circulatory problems suggested by recent photos of his bruised-looking hands; the governor of Kentucky is a Democrat and not bound by a “same party replacement” rule.
One can but hope. It looks to me like he’s on Coumadin and probably had some unsuccessful attempts at an IV, which doesn’t necessarily bode poorly for his life expectancy.
Kentucky could be interesting if only because it’ll be one of the first states in, since our polls are all closed by 7PM EST and we’ve been counting mail-in votes as they came in. Amy McGrath is a terrible candidate who even most Democrats find irritating at this point, so if she were to pull off an upset or even keep it close it means the blue wave is real and you can expect Democrats to run the table. Same for Trump–he beat Hillary by 30 points in 2016, and he’s definitely going to win this time, but the margin may tell a story.
I’ve sure that the governor will respect the voters’ wishes to have a Republican representing them in Congress, reciprocating the sense of fair play and collegiality that Mitch has engendered throughout his career.
Another vote of confidence for this. Subject to one rather large caveat.
White evangelical Christianity, Black evangelical Christianity, and Latino/a/x Roman Catholicism are still very distinct creeds even if we magically erase any racial/racist overtones from all 3.
Creating a truly ecumenical-shading-into-secular social conservative narrative could work. But to the degree the public’s social conservatism is motivated by their own religiosity that’ll be a problem. The us vs. them mentality remains strong even when motivated solely by religion. As does the “When does acceptable ecumenism shade into unacceptable heresy?” question that will always be on the tips of their tongues.
They might all agree “abortion = bad”. But if they, or their always enterprising thought “leaders”, decide to argue, “… but not for the right reasons”, the coalition may well fall apart.
Plus of course the magic bit at the front where I assumed racial identification just disappeared.
But for damn sure if it happened it would turn US politics inside out / sideways / through a blender.
I’ll go for a conservative prediction and say that Biden wins 311 - 227. Dems take the Senate with 51 seats.
For the last few years I thought the Democrats had a better chance than not of winning because of two key factors:
Hillary is not running. She received visceral hatred from the GOP for over 20 years, and that bled into the independents and even some liberals. Just look at how Hillary fared against Bernie compared to how badly Biden defeated Bernie when it got down to a one v one. I think this is especially true of blue collar white men, who would have some trepidation voting for a woman, but especially THAT woman.
Democrats now know the importance of the electoral college and which swing states they need to win. Last election, most people didn’t spot Trump’s rust belt strategy. This election, a lot of time and money is being spent here by both parties.
Here are some other more current factors that bode well for Biden:
Trump’s complete bungling of coronavirus
The 2018 elections were a blue wave.
Current polling
Massive turnout and early voting. For an incumbent President, that could mean voters overwhelmingly supporting a great leader or voting against a horrible screw up. My money is on the latter.
The only card that Trump holds is electoral shenanigans. Hopefully, the win will be so decisive that he will get no traction. My super optimistic prediction is a 413 to 125 electoral landslide. But that is more of a dream than reality.
I wholeheartedly agree with this post, especially the last part. Latin people I know are socially conservative and they have the characteristics of economic conservatives. For many of the ones I know, they’re only progressive as far as having more immigration rights and basic labor protections - that’s it. In most other regards, they’re conservative.
I suspect that a LOT more African Americans would vote Republican if the GOP would just stop pandering to racists. That’s harder to do in Southern states because race is still a thing down there, but if the party as a whole would have a more active outreach toward Black voters, Brown voters, and Asian voters, and just tone down the racist crap, they’d win a lot more elections.
