This does seem like an ideal outcome from a conservative point of view – the lawsuit was drawing a lot of negative attention including from some Republicans, the odds of it substantially impacting the election was low, better to cut their losses on this one. And by ruling against it on standing grounds, the judge left alive the constitutional claim regarding the role of state legislatures in election law to be ruled on in a more promising case.
I wish that the “conservative point of view” took more of an interest in how the ruling affects democracy, and less about how it affects the party’s chances to win an election with fewer votes.
Oy, some times you guys are frustrating. From a Republican standpoint what could be more “promising” than throwing out ~120k votes from a strongly Democrat region? I am sure that the judge made his decision without thinking about saving the bullet for later. He ruled that the GOP didn’t have standing and could have left it there; yet he still criticized them for attempting this. How could it have gone better?
Yeah, the excepts I saw seemed that he was dismissing their arguments out of hand as being ridiculous (albeit in a legalistic way that seems to soften the blow.) Which isn’t to say that the Supremes won’t find a way to hear this, it’s just that this judge wasn’t having any of it, today.
Now for my actual predictions! I know some of these states will be wrong, but here goes (something like this anyway).
7-8 PM: Trump wins KY, IN, and WV; Biden wins VT (Trump 24, Biden 3)
8-9 PM: Trump wins SC, OK, TN, AL, MS; Biden wins DE, DC, MD, MA, NJ, RI, CT, ME, IL (Biden 79, Trump 66)
9-10PM: Trump wins KS, ND, SD, WY, NE*, LA, AR; Biden wins NY and NE* district (Biden 109, Trump 89)
10-11PM: Trump wins MT and MO; Biden wins NM, VA, and CO (Biden 136, Trump 112)
11-12 AM: Trump wins ID, FL, TX, UT, and OH; Biden wins CA, FL, HI, WA, NC, NH, MN (Biden 243, Trump 207)
12AM - 2AM: Trump wins IA and AK; Biden wins NV, MI (Biden 265, Trump 216)
As we wait for the final states to put Biden over the top, Trump campaign starts going bat-shit and declaring that the election is a sham. Biden is leading in PA, WI, and AZ; Trump is winning GA but barely. Some right wing outlets declare Trump has won and that the networks are in bed with Biden.
This is where it gets really hard to predict. What happens in these last few states? Obviously Trump will head to the courts.
I’m guessing that within 24 hours, networks will declare that Biden has picked up one of these states, either WI, PA, or AZ; Trump will be projected the winner in GA. Unofficially, Biden will have won 306-232.
All of this assumes that there’s not some chaos event like a major hacking.
It would truly be the most Florida thing ever for both to win it, but I am pretty sure that’s a mistake on your part.
I actually just redid my map and also came up with 306-232.
306-232 was the exact same electoral college outcome in 2016. Would be rather eerie if that happened again but this time flipped on Trump.
Harris County (Houston, TX) is hardly a strongly Democratic region.
It’s a white, Republican city full of rich, nouveau riche, bankers, and oil people. They don’t even have zoning in the city ‘cause Texans don’t like to be tol’ what to do even by each other. This negligence bit them in the ass during heavy floods a couple of years ago.
Clinton beat Trump in 2016 in Harris County by 150k votes (+12%).
O’Rourke beat Cruz in 2018 in Harris County by 200k votes (+17%).
The demographics and voting patterns of Harris County have been rapidly changing in recent years.
First off, note that Houston has had a Democratic mayor since the early 1980s. The surrounding county (Harris County) used to be controlled by Republicans, but as of 2018 has been led by a Democratic chief executive (County Judge Lina Hidalgo).
I have a personal interest here, as I‘m originally from Houston/Harris County, and my mother and much of my extended family still live there. Harris County, like most other urban areas in Texas has shifted blue in recent years (starting in 2008). These blue areas are still outweighed by the rural red areas, but are the reason why Texas is starting to become a toss-up.
From the Wikipedia entry:
lol, yeah, I meant Trump wins FL; not sure how that happened. I meant Biden wins OR
What the hey, let’s go big! Joe and America 395, Satan’s Legion 143
Can’t envision Iowa going blue this time…Ohio maybe
Jeez if you’re going to go that extreme might as well give Biden Ohio as well and push him over 400 
. I will be overjoyed with that result and it is within the realm of possibility, but even I’m not that optimistic.
Really? I thought Iowa was more recently close to Blue than Ohio. I have no idea, I guess. I think they will both go Trump, though.
Unless this whole thing is an absolute blow-out, which is my favorite result.
Shit, I probably made 4 different picks already in this and other threads. Final prediction: I DON’T FUCKING KNOW!
There we go.
I DO know that my current State of California is going for Biden/Harris. Enjoy the 55 EVs, Joe and Kamala!
On another thread, or the other thread, or the other thread, or the other thread I think someone pointed out that 538 gave Trump a 1in 3 chance of winning in 2016. Now he has Trump at less than 1 in 4. So if that “1” is a magic number, Trump wins again! Why not?
Then we’ll probably see the Republic of California in an entirely different way. Get your passports ready! No, the weed stays here. Amsterdam rules.
I am quite certain you and I have identical maps.
I can get Biden to 413 EVs with a polling error of just 2.5, 3 points low on Biden. Not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility, and would have the ability to swing Ohio, Texas, Georgia and Iowa and lock down NE-1.
I cannot realistically get Trump anywhere near that high. I can get him to 300 if I give in WI, NH, and the Maine vote. Michigan seems like too much of a long shot.
Huh? 538 gives Trump one chance in ten.
If I’m understanding 538’s outcome graph correctly the EV count with the highest probability is ~ 413.
Okay, and if that “1” is somehow a magic number… 
