Texas is the state that would change this from a win for Biden into a tsunami. To my thinking it isn’t just that PA, MI, WI and NC would have to go blue but so would FL, GA and IA. The crazy part of this is that I don’t think this scenario is outside the realm of possibility.
I will sing “deep in the heart of Texas” and upload it for all of you if Biden wins Texas.
Use my words against me and I don’t mean that in the “not really” type way Lindsay Graham does.
Duet with me?
Did I already post here? It is Tuesday morning in Saudi Arabia, already election day. My final prediction:
Blue sweep with the Democrats taking the White House and the Senate. Further, results will be announced by various networks in about the usual time, midnight eastern.
Here’s what I think and why: There are and always have been enough votes out there to elect a Democratic president. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama proved that four times between them. But the problem is that you have to get all of them. Which leads to what I call the “Democratic Dilemma”. Nominate a candidate who’s to far to the left (1972) and the independents vote GOP. Nominate a candidate who’s too close to the center (2000 and 2016), the lefties vote Green and the black vote stays home. It’s known that in each of the three pivotal states in 2016 that Jill Stein got more votes than trump’s winning margin in those state. It’s not as widely known that in Detroit more folks actually voted but left the presidential line blank than trumps margin of victory in that state.
Here’s what makes 2020 different than 2016: NOBODY is staying home this year. Indeed judging from early voting this looks like a near-record turnout scenario. And as for third-party candidates, you haven’t even heard from the Green party candidate and the Libertarian candidate is an even bigger joke than usual. Add to that, the raft of Biden endorsements from moderate Republicans such as John Kasich, the Lincoln Project, Cindy McCain (speaking on behalf of her late husband) and others too numerous to mention create a permission structure (come on in, the water’s fine) for Republicans who are apprehensive about voting for a Dem but who also despise what trump has turned their party into. And they are going to do so, even if they do it behind their husband’s backs.) Additionally all of trump’s attacks on Biden are falling flat and failing to resonate beyond those who have already drunk the proverbial Kool-Aid. Put all these facts together and it looks like, for Joe Biden, that the third time is going to be the charm.
Biden wins a 72% popular vote. Even the states he loses are by just a handful. Dems keep the House but fall just short in capturing the Senate.
Trump wins all the states he won in 2016 with the exception of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and the one vote in Maine.
Electoral college votes. 269-all tie. No faithless electors.
Republicans have slight edge when the vote goes to the House and reelects Trump POTUS. The country goes absolutely bananas and we get 4 more years of complete chaos!
”May you live in interesting times”.
Other than turnout in key precincts, will there be other clues tomorrow before the polls close? I’ve read exit polls aren’t very reliable
Living in one of the very Red counties of Ohio (Trump got 80.7% of the vote in 2016 in Mercer county, per a Politico map, the highest percentage to vote for Trump for a county in the state), and working in many of the surrounding Red counties in Ohio, I would love for Ohio to go Biden, but…I think Iowa has better odds. I have hope that I’m wrong…but I don’t think I am.
I checked in with Vegas Insider. If you bet $100 and Biden wins, you get $100+50. If you bet $100 and Trump wins, you get $100+70. So Biden is favored.
Not sure why the preview has the date wrong…
Yeah I think our maps are probably identical. I think Trump ends up keeping FL and GA, though GA voters may surprise me. I know that many minority voters in GA are still seething from 2018 so that will be a factor. I think Biden had FL but blew it with a poor effort at gaining more Hispanic support there. Trump also may have put-hustled Biden toward the end.
But I don’t see how Biden loses PA, MI, and WI. Polls would have to be off by epic proportions. Ironically, Biden may be weakest in P out of all of those rust belt states, but I still think he is solid.
After playing with 538’s “Choose your own Adventure” tool with selected battleground states, I’m gonna go AZ/CO/NV/MN/WI/MI/PA/NH/FL to Biden, OH/NC/GA/TX to Trump. Final EC totals: 321 Biden, 217 Trump (if I interpreted the thing right).
Yes, both states turned for Barry both times. Iowa by slightly larger margins. But no Republican has ever made it to the WH without Ohio, so it really is a must win for Individual-ONE.
And if I’m not mistaken Ohio has voted for the POTUS winner every year since 1948 with only 1 exception, and that was 60 years ago.
Not sure if that actually means anything, though.
I just can’t bring myself to make an actual hard prediction of state-by-state results, but what I have done is entered three scenarios, based on Nate’s polling numbers and state forecasts, into 538’s choose-your-own adventure tool.
Worst-case-scenario based on current/final polls: Biden 89% chance of winning, Trump 10%. Average electoral vote: Biden 304.8-Trump 233.2
Best-case scenario based on current/final polls: Biden 100% chance of winning, Trump 0%. Average electoral vote: Biden 360-Trump 177.
Most-likely scenario based on current/final polls: Biden 95% chance of winning, Trump 4% chance. Average electoral vote: Biden 342.8-Trump 195.2
So, unless polling is way the fuck off or there’s massive skullduggery and/or ratfuckery, I figure Biden will get somewhere between 304 and 360 EVs. Most likely being somewhere around 340. And yet, I’ve got a crippling case of the bubble guts because hey, what the fuck do I know?
But with that, just before midnight EST on November 2, 2020, I conclude my compulsive refreshing of 538’s webpage until 2024.
And if you don’t want to watch the video, here’s the unspoilered spoiler: If polls are off and go Trump’s way exactly the same as 2016, Biden wins 335-203. If polls are off slightly more than they were in 2016, Biden still wins 270-268, but then things get a bit hinky. If the polling error goes in the opposite (BIden’s) direction, Biden potentially wins with 413 EVs.
My prediction: Biden wins with 332 EVs, Trump gets 206 EVs
Let’s see which of us gets closest
It’s crazy that both the US and the UK have electoral systems that can produce squeakers or epic landslides on a hair’s breadth of polling difference.
See “Nate Silver” on SNL.
I didn’t get this part. Ratfuckery of some sort?
Dems may have a majority of Reps in the House, but when electing a POTUS the Reps vote as States, and there the GOP has a majority.