This whole country needs a reprieve from suffering and Florida going Biden would give us that. Just end it! No way Trump wins if FL goes blue.
Curious how many points will be considered “uncontestable”. Praying Biden takes Florida by at least four? five? points.
NC is going to be tight
The Needle is giving Trump a 95% chance of winning NC. It’s probably gone. PA may be the last hope…
Ha!!! No way. I hope I’m wrong on PA, but I don’t think I am.
Hey, so this site shows up “blank” for me and has been since the election. Does it not stay up in-between elections?
It’s back up now.
Were you looking for something specific?
Will you be running prespredict for this year’s election and if so, when will it go up?
Yes, I’m planning on running it this year. The math relies on state polls, so when state polls start coming out for Biden vs Trump, I’ll update the site
AFAIK, there aren’t many state polls, it’s mostly nationwide polls of Biden vs Trump, which are effectively meaningless given the electoral college
(2020!) not 2024
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Cool, thanks.
Here are the calculations based on the latest state polls:
Probability of winning:
- Biden: 44.9% [15.1%, 46.5%]
- Trump 55.1% [53.5%, 84.9%]
Number of electors: Biden 261, Trump 277
There are a lot of websites now that track this prediction, so I’m not sure if I’ll make my website track it daily for the 2024 election like in the past.
Uhm, so if I correctly predict the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential election, what do I win?
A lollipop
Why is this thread active? It has nothing to do with 2024. I’m so confused.