It very well might be; I sure hope it is. But after the disappointment of 2016 I’m not trusting any poll straight up this year.
I’m still seeing Biden with 300+ EC votes. However, some states are close.
Biden will win; I am more certain that Biden will be the projected winner than I was Clinton. I do worry that the Repubs will find a way to cheat, if it’s close enough.
Yep. I actually do think if cheating and voter suppression were no issue, I’d have Biden at 95% or more likely to win.
As a guy who spent considerable time in Phila, and who sees Wilmington as a kinda, sorta suburb, I am so pulling for Uncle Joe. If you ever spent time in Philly, you know it’s all about hard work, elbow grease, and grinding it the fuck out. That is what I expect his voters to do on election day/night.
According to the 2016 Election wikipedia page, there were 63.0M votes cast for Trump, and 65.9M votes cast for Hillary Clinton.
As a “gold standard” frame of reference, the 2008 Election had President Obama at 69.5M votes, and McCain at 59.9M votes.
So while we’re talking predictions, anyone have any estimates +/- 1.0M how many votes Biden / Trump get when all is said and done?
I’d have to think that Biden exceeds Hillary’s 65.9M, and nears President Obama’s 69.5M, so I’ll call it 68.5M votes for Biden.
For Trump, part of me thinks that in 2016 people came out for him because he was “different” or “edgy”. I don’t imagine him getting that same support this time around, especially considering his bungling of Covid.
The other part of me thinks that his “base” is even more fired up (or “emboldened”) than they were last time, and their enthusiasm is serious. So I’ll only predict a slight decrease in his votes 2016 vs 2020. I’ll put it at 62.3M votes for Trump.
I sure as hell hope it plays out like this, because I think a +6.2M difference in votes would spill over enough into the electoral college that we can end this four-year Twilight Zone episode.
Biden : 68,500,000 votes
Trump : 62,300,000 votes
problem with vote totals nationwide is a lot come from blue states like NY , CA, IL, Mass, etc and those don’t mean a lot since Trump is not going to win any of those.
This is interesting, but EC is the total that counts.
Yeah. Counting the total popular votes is strictly meaningless.
It’s about like looking at a baseball game’s box score and focusing on the hits column while ignoring the runs column. Hits are generally statistically correlated to runs when measured across hundreds of games. But the hit count on any particular game means bupkiss. Runs are all that matters.
The … aahh … “interesting” nature of the EC means that the correlation isn’t all that strong; certainly less strong than the runs/hits correlation in baseball.
IMO the correlation is getting ever less so as the country matures from the 18th century agrarian society the Constitution was designed to regulate. Though that’s a topic well addressed in dozens of other threads. Not trying to launch a hijack here.
I want to say that Biden should win by getting more than 50% of the popular vote (Ms Clinton got 48.2% in '16), but it looks like Samuel Tilden got 50.9% in 1876 and still lost to R.B Hayes (by 1 EV).
Lots of straight-laced conservative women are personally involved with tax fraud, pyramid schemes, and infidelity. Believe me, they are as sympatico with Trump as their male counterparts.
I had completely forgotten about that until a couple of weeks ago when I read Gore Vidal’s historical novel 1876. Very good and it goes into great detail about that election. Also about another corrupt Repubican President
The problem is that while Philly and Pittburgh are blue, most of the rest of the state is red, red, red.
You can say that about darn near all 50 states. The only difference is the name of the metro area(s) and their population as a percentage of the whole.
Almost. In 2016, the main exception seems to have been some red cities in Florida. Jacksonville and the gulf coast cities in FL went red. I’m not an expert in Florida, though, so I won’t speculate as to why that is.
Partly it’s because, by a quirk of historical geography, the city limits of Jacksonville include much of the land area of what eventually became its suburbs in all but name.
FWIW, this is from the NPR site today (Monday, Oct 26).
Currently, Biden leads Trump 52% to 43% in an average of the national polls. Biden’s top line number has barely budged since effectively winning the Democratic nomination. He hasn’t been below 49% since April, and Trump hasn’t gotten to 44% since that same month. Biden has been between 49% and 52% on average, while Trump has been between 41% and 44%.
That certainly puts Biden on track to win the national popular vote, but Clinton won that, too, by 3 million votes.
The race is won in the states key to deciding the Electoral College, and there, it’s tighter. The Biden campaign has said for months that it expects a contraction and continues to stress that its internal polls show a closer contest in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin than what is showing up in public surveys.
But that tightening may be starting to appear in public polls. Trump has seen an uptick in the last week in several states. Below is a rundown of where things stand in a dozen states, per 538 averages as of Sunday afternoon and in order of closest to furthest apart:
Texas: Trump 47.6%-47.5% (Trump +0.1)
Georgia: Biden 47.6%-47.2% (Biden +0.4)
Iowa: Biden 47.5%-46.3% (Biden +1.2)
Ohio: Trump 47.9%-46.5% (Trump +1.4)
Florida : Biden 49.1%-46.6% (Biden +2.5)
North Carolina: Biden 49.2%-46.6% (Biden +2.6)
Arizona: Biden 48.7%-46% (Biden +2.7)
Pennsylvania: Biden 50.4%-44.7% (Biden +5.7)
Nevada: Biden 50.2%-43.6% (Biden +6.2)
Wisconsin: Biden 50.8%-44.1% (Biden +6.7)
Michigan: Biden 50.5%-43% (Biden +7.5)
Minnesota: Biden 50.6%-42.7% (Biden +7.9)Bookmark the above margins for comparison to next week to see if the race has moved and to Election Day to see if the polls were right or wrong.
My prediction on this election is that Biden wins easily, we’ll know the winner on Election Night, and he’ll get over 300 EV. I also predict a tidal wave in the House and Senate. I had been holding off on feeling this confident, but polls that came out today have me confident (absent skullduggery), this won’t even be close.
A bunch of explicit photos of sex acts and drugs from Hunter Biden’s laptop - supposedly - have just been infodumped, supposedly by a Chinese anti-Communist group. I won’t go into too much detail but you can search for it on your own if you want. I do not believe any of it will really hurt Biden, honestly. 1. Too many people have firsthand experiences with sex selfies, AND drugs, for them to really, in their heart of hearts, work up outrage for it, and 2. I think the electorate is, in the main, getting “Hunter scandal fatigue.” I think some of the die-hard Trump supporters among the Republicans really believe this will be a bombshell, but it’s ultimately an underwhelming one.
Thank you! I’m crawling aboard this life raft! (I brought beer.)