I think there might be a lot of women out there that don’t want their husbands to know that they’re voting for Biden.
Maybe. I do think ashamed-Trump-voters exist for sure. They say they are unsure, but then vote their true heart in the booth, so to speak.
It’s pulling a “hair outta my arse” - but I don’t know if I would agree with this -
Seems to me there’s quite a few places / cliques / worksites where you’d get yourself into trouble by admitting / declaring that you don’t like Trump
Alexandra Petri is, as always, a national treasure. She will not be reassured.
This is a common trope among the left, not borne out by the facts. Married women vote republican nearly as often as married men. The gender gap in voting patterns overwhelmingly comes from unmarried women, who vote democrat by huge margins.
Anything is possible, of course, but it’s typical for women to poll GOP and then actually vote that way.
306 would require him holding all the battleground states he won in '16. Some of which he’s trailing in bigly. Trump getting to 316 would require him to do that and flip a Hillary state, too.
There’s a reasonable skepticism to be had with the state polling, lord knows it gets talked about enough. But for Trump to lose Pennsylvania, he would have to win Florida and North Carolina and Michigan and, etc. Are you really predicting that to happen?
After seeing Trump double down on “we’re just going to live with the coronavirus”, I’m predicting that Florida flips blue (which is Game Over for Team Orange).
Probably. But when Joe mentioned he might impose what sounded like a complete mask-wearing rule (I know what he meant, but he should have clarified — some idiots might misinterpret this as “even in your own home”!), he might have lost a few voters in Ohio or Iowa, which are now right at 50-50.
But if you’re right about Florida, of course nothing else will matter, and our national nightmare will be over. (Well, the beginning of the end).
I would agree with you if this were 2012 and we were talking about Mitt Romney. But I’m not talking about support for a normal Republican candidate. I’m talking about supporting Trump, the man that was the brainchild of a get rich quick scam that defrauded vulnerable seniors and the wealthy unemployed out of their life savings. The man that screwed a porn star bareback ( germaphobe, haha) while his wife was pregnant.
I still maintain that lots of straight-laced conservative women find him morally off-putting.
I’ve got a couple of family members that are fairly conservative. Not wanting to spend my family time engaging in political arguments, I generally avoid the subject. Until one night they were over and the news came on to a Trump story and my nephew’s wife said something that made me realize she might possibly hate Trump more than I do.
I think the dissonance required to support Trump is harder to maintain when you are a mother actively trying to impart a value system to your children.
[quote=“Ann_Hedonia, post:129, topic:922525, full:true”]
I would agree with you if this were 2012 and we were talking about Mitt Romney. But I’m not talking about support for a normal Republican candidate. I’m talking about supporting Trump,
[/quote]I’m pretty sure everyone knew about Trump’s personal conduct issues in 2016. The people disinclined to vote for him on that basis already didn’t vote for him.
[quote]But for Trump to lose Pennsylvania, he would have to win Florida and North Carolina and Michigan and, etc. Are you really predicting that to happen?
[/quote]Yes.
And the chances of him winning PA are greater than of him losing FL or NC.
The thing that I hang my hat (and hopes) on is that if you adjust state polls by the error rates from 2016 Biden still wins. Not by a lot but it’s solid. So for you to be right the polls would hqve to be even more wrong than 2016 which is possible but I consider to be very unlikely.
This only gets him victory. The concern becomes if it is even close, Trump takes it to the Supreme Court or Congress and gets the win overridden.
There’s a thread for comparing predictions of this nature to those of other posters: October 2020 Swing State Confidence Pool.
I welcome your participation @furt.
I have a feeling that it’s not quite as easy and guaranteed as some are fearing it to be, but yes, the bigger the margin, the less likely it becomes and the more comfortable everyone is.
Personally, I’m considering just not reading this forum for the entire last week. I’ve already voted, and I’m not sure if there’s any value to keeping up to date.
Oof, I just looked after about a week. Pennsylvania was +2 Biden after adjustment and now it’s “< 1”. Ugh.
The last 8 polls for Pennsylvania on 538 show a range of +3 Biden to +10 Biden. They currently have the polling average at +6 Biden. The latest Fox News poll for the state is +5 Biden.
Yeah, but I’m not sure how much I trust them. I feel much better about polls that show Biden winning after being adjusted with the 2016 error rate. When Biden was +2 I was feeling pretty good.
I understand the polls were off in 2016 and the result was a shock but I don’t understand why it is the permanent measuring stick for polling error going forward. From your link to the NYT the chart shows if the adjustment is based on how much the polls were off in 2012 then Biden goes to +7 in PA. Why can’t that be an indicator he is doing well?
Fareed Zakaria, who I really admire, wrote an article about he is doubling down(he predicted Clinton in 2016) and predicting Trump to lose this year. He makes some good points. We are all scared. Really scared. But I have hope America will reject Trump.
Here is the column he wrote about doubling down on Trump’s losing.