Apparently, Biden wants more time and the Taliban are saying “No way”. What leverage does Biden really have? IMHO, the only thing that might work is some sort of payoff. Any sort of military action can lead only to a bigger disaster. I predict that at 12:01 on the 1st the Taliban attack the airport. God (or Allah) help whoever is still there.
My prediction is, the evacuation will continue beyond 8/31 and the Taliban won’t like it but they won’t do much about it. As long as they see that the evacuation is still ongoing (thus, the US is serious about leaving,) they’ll sit on their hands.
The last thing the Taliban would want to do right now - or even beyond 8/31 - is attack anyone American. That would muck things up when they just want America to leave and leave ASAP.
I agree. I don’t think the Taliban will want to do anything that will result in a delay in Americans leaving. If that means having to put up with a delay of days or weeks because the August 31 deadline becomes unrealistic, then they may grumble, but I doubt they’ll do anything provocative.
I don’t think that the Taliban plan to do anything provocative, but in a highly tense environment, as the Kabul airport and surrounding area undoubtedly is right now, misunderstandings can happen and quickly escalate (though I absolutely hope that they do not).
I can certainly imagine things going very badly for those people who are currently waiting outside the airport gates, trying to gain entry in order to be airlifted out of Afghanistan. A scenario in which effective September 1 the Taliban decide to clear the area of all the remaining dissidents in a brutal fashion, in order to expedite the departure of the US military, is something I worry about most.
Bit of nitpick: Allah is simply the Arabic word for God.
I hope that you are all correct. I tend to be a pessimist when it comes to trusting the Taliban. So, maybe not a direct attack on the airport but I can certainly envision what QuickSilver said.
What do you think would happen if the Taliban simply let everyone leave who wanted to? Who would be left? They could have their own little caliphate of believers.
P.S. I know that God and Allah are different words/language for the same thing. I think that your view on what that thing is or “wants” may differ depending on which word you use.
Heard reports this morning of extended firefights near Kabul airport. The reporter did not indicate who was involved because it was unknown at the time. There was also a report of 4 ISIS members arrested by the Taliban. They were reportedly looking for soft targets - whatever that may mean. Seems to me, given ISIS M.O., that explosives planted among crowded civilian areas are possible, if not highly likely.
The Taliban did a press conference, earlier today and said it will begin to discourage/stop Afghans from leaving, that the country needs their talents. They also so said women can return to work but not until they make it safer for them. They also reiterated that the deadline remains, no extension.
The OP asks what leverage Biden would have. How would the Taliban like constant rain of drone strikes over all their centers?
I wonder how much control the Taliban leadership has over those barefoot guys with M-16s wandering about.
Drone strikes would not stop a concerted effort to take the airport. I heard some republican ranting about how the Taliban can’t dictate the fate of Americans in Afghanistan (and its all Biden’s fault). Unfortunately, they can. I have yet to hear anyone posit a viable solution if the Taliban hold the U.S. to the deadline. What are we going to do? Declare war on them?
Those in charge are not idiots. Do note that they planned this takeover back in April, which is why it was so fast.
And, since they’re not idiots, they won’t attack US troops while the US is doing exactly what they want them to do—leaving. They know exactly what would happen if they attack: we would very much go back to war, instantly. That’s what Americans do when they get attacked.
Sure but ISIS has every incentive to cause trouble for the Taliban. They can false-flag an attack on Americans as Taliban doing.
So, are you saying the Taliban will let the deadline pass with nothing more than stern words while we continue flights? They have to save face with their own fighters and the rest of their ilk. Our ability to go back to war is being eroded by the hour. The ability to do so “instantly” is long gone unless you are talking about a bombing campaign. Airpower alone will never accomplish anything other than more civilian deaths and maybe a few Taliban leaders. They’ve already taken our best punches for 20 years and are now standing in the corner while we are being counted out. Or throwing in the towel, as it were.