Premier Eves Flips on Gay Marriage; Did he "Find Jaysus" or Find an Election Date?

[Northern_Piper]

Back in June, when the Ontario Court of Appeal held that same-sex marriage is constitutionally required, Premier Eves was okay with it, according to this news item:

Premier Ernie Eves said that he personally has no objections to the unions, but said the decision would ultimately be made in Ottawa.

Premier Eves was being consistent, having said pretty much the same thing last year, when the trial decision came out.

However, Ernie now seems to have found religion, according to a recent Globe & Mail story:

Ontario has decided not to intervene in the federal government’s case for same-sex marriage, although Premier Ernie Eves changed his personal stand on the subject this week from support to opposition.
…
The question whether same-sex marriages should be legalized exploded as an election issue in Ontario this week when **Mr. Eves, in a major shift on his stand, said he does not personally support gay marriage.

He cited his Anglican faith as the reason.**

So which is it Ernie? Deep religious soul-searching over the past two months, leading to a “road to Damascus” conversion? Or could your switch possibly, just maybe, have something to do with the upcoming election?

hmmmm, which explanation to choose…

:wally

(And for heaven’s sakes, “citing your Anglican faith”? haven’t you been watching the trends in the church, both here in Canada (same-sex blessings in B.C.) and down south (the new bishop)? Now’s the time you dig in your heels? )

[Grey]

The man is a badly dressed, over-slicked windsock.

Consistency is not really a big thing for Ernie, at least not to date. Look at the approach to teachers, hydro deregulation, gay marriage… there’s more but they escape me.

Oct. 2 can’t come soon enough.

[Weird_AL_Einstein]

*Originally posted by Northern Piper *
**Or could your switch possibly, just maybe, have something to do with the upcoming election?
**

Well, I guess I’m just an ignorant Yank, but…I thought the majority in Canada favored gay marriage. Or at least that they were split 50/50. Have I been misinformed?

[T.Mehr]

Can you still win an eletion by gay bashing?

Ehhh, thinking about it, I guess, yeah you can…

[Grey]

OTTAWA and TORONTO – Ontario has decided not to intervene in the federal government’s case for same-sex marriage, although Premier Ernie Eves changed his personal stand on the subject this week from support to opposition.
Today is the deadline for provinces or territories to intervene in Ottawa’s reference to the Supreme Court of Canada for an opinion on a draft bill to legalize same-sex marriage. As of yesterday, no province or territory had filed a notice to intervene.

from the Globe & Mail seems to imply that the personnel feelings of Mr. Eves are not affecting provincial policy.

Premier Ernie Eves, trailing badly in the polls but buoyed by a bump in popularity over his handling of the electricity blackout, has called an Ontario election for Oct. 2, asking voters to choose his experience over Liberal promises of change.

again from the Globe & Mail makes it pretty obvious that the chances of a Conservative re-election slim.

But the crux of the matter, winning the election on a platform with gay marriage as a critical piece of policy simply does not exist. From The PC party’s Key Policies there is not a single mention of gay marriage.

Now as to the position of Canadians on gay marriage I can’t find a poll, but I believe that it’s a 50/50 thing. The idea of marriage being expanded to include homosexuals being the biggest obstacle I believe. If it was a question of equal access/rights tied to a marriage equivalent term the question likely wouldn’t even be debated

[Northern_Piper]

Weird Al, there are a few things that may have put some pressure on Ernie.

First, there’s been some slippage in support for gay marriage in some of the recent polls; can’t find any just now, but I believe it may have gone from ~53% in favour to ~ 45% in favour.

Second, the support for gay marriage is consistently shown to be strongest in the under 40 crowd, and opposition strongest in the over 40s. Nor is it disributed evenly regionally - support tends to be stronger in urban areas, opposition stronger in rural areas.

Third, the Roman Catholic church has weighed in, calling on its adherent to oppose gay marriage, and saying that it’s a mortal sin for Roman Catholic politicians to vote in favour of it. The Bishop of Calgary went so far as to say that Jean Chrétien is in danger of going to hell for his position. Ernie’s apparently Anglican, so that shouldn’t bother him, but it may have an effect on his party’s supporters who are Roman Catholic.

Fourth, (and we’re starting to get to why some may see Ernie’s flip-flop as pure politics), his party is the Progressive Conservative party of Ontario, which is a right-of-centre party. They’re about 15% behind in the polls, but the election may be closely-fought in some ridings, where every vote may count. One of our Ontario posters may be able to provide more detail, but it’s my understanding that the Tories in Ontario tend to be stronger in the country than in the urban areas. As well, traditionally the Tories have appealed to the older demographic of voters. In a closely-fought election, you need to have the troops to do the grunt work of campaigning at the local level. Past experience has shown that if you alienate them, they may not turn out to work on the campaign, drastically affecting your ability to get out the vote. Really alienate the hard-core supporters, and they might stay home themselves on election day

Overall, there’s some reason to speculate that Ernie has calculated that the hard-core of his support will oppose gay marriage, and that he needs to oppose it to keep them happy. He may have calculated as well that those who support gay marriage strongly weren’t likely to vote for his party anyway, so his flip-flop won’t have much negative effect for him and the party.