What is helping me a little is the coming timeline.
We have a little Olympic break where people feel good about the country
8/7-We have a VP nominee and the formal virtual nomination which will help the Harris campaign
8/19-8/22-Democratic convention.
9/10-Potential second debate. I am confident that this will help Harris.
9/18-Trump sentencing in New York case. Too light a sentence may galvanize Democrats. Jail time might worry swing voters and independents. (Sentencing makes the convictions more “real”). There is also the risk of stirring up the MAGA crowd more. I still call it a plus for Harris.
I was thinking, when I heard a bit of his stutter, that as he ages it must be harder and harder for him to manage. I saw Jonathan Miller (UK actor, director, writer, etc.) years ago describe his own struggles with a stutter. It was interesting to hear him describe how much extra effort it required for him to speak without it. I think that makes Biden appear less competent when it’s not really any real reflection on his actual competence/intelligence.
So is there any chance that the speed, smoothness, and unanimity of the handover was completely organic and/or just lucky? Or does it pretty much demand a lot of behind the scenes work?
No, I’m sure it was organic to some extent. Doubtless they’ve been doing “what-ifs” for awhile and the machinery is there to support her becoming President which would help to some regard. But also a LOT of work. In the morning you’re calling people for Biden. In the afternoon you’re making merch for Harris and vetting VP noms. I don’t envy them.
I’m interested in what people think was the time-table for “awhile.”
When exactly do you think Biden decided he would decline the nomination, and when exactly do you think it was decided that he announce it on Sunday afternoon?
The more I look at this, the more I think it was very carefully and craftily planned.
I think Biden decided to drop out weeks ago–the first part of his decision, contradictorily enough, was to forcefully deny that he was even considering it, so as to keep the GOP on uncertain footing as to its likelihood. Up til Sunday afternoon, they couldn’t plan on him dropping out because he was furiously denying even thinking about it, and faux-demonizing those Democrats who were suggesting it. He waited, cleverly, until the GOP had had their convention, which they spent denouncing Biden personally, and had selected their VP candidate primarily because of his youth to contrast with Biden, and then he announced.
If I’m correct, that he came around weeks before last Sunday, this shows great canniness on his part and the part of his political team. This had the timing of a military operation.
You’re willing to give wayyyyy more credit than I do for Machiavellian scheming. I don’t think they’re either that smart or that organized OR, most importantly, that good of actors. I think it was just slightly fortuitous timing. I don’t think Biden planned to drop out until at most a few days before he did. At that point they may have gamed out how best to transition and lined up endorsements to make it smooth.
We’ll find out in a year or three when the post-mortem is written for the campaign. But I just don’t see it.
This might be a bit biased, but all those who thought Biden dropping out would be a disaster should read this – just published today:
Writing for The Bulwark, [anti-MAGA conservative A.B. Stoddard] mocks Trump for having his “worst week ever,” as newly released polls show that Vice President Kamala Harris is performing significantly better than President Joe Biden did before he decided to end his 2024 bid for the White House last week.
“Within days, the vice president had captivated the nation, united her party, upended the campaign, raised record sums, tied up the race in polling, and seen a bounce in her favorability ratings,” Stoddard writes. “In the same stretch of time Trump had backed out of a debate, watched J.D. Vance become a meme, fielded concerns about what a failure it was to pick Vance, and seen his own approval rating erode under Harris’ attacks.”
Yet they were smart and organized enough to do the right thing and unanimously and quickly get behind Harris? I think that’s one reason some think this was planned; remember how terrified everyone was of chaos and a huge convention fight if Biden dropped out.
They were either skilled or lucky, and probably both. I thought"lucky" at first, but have come around to thinking this was so well done, there had to be some clever planning in there as well, and quite possibly a lot of very clever planning.
In order for this to have been planned, the Democrats would have to be (a) organized and disciplined, and (b) firmly in control of a simple political message.
Therefore, it could not have been planned, because (gestures at decades of Democratic history).
I was terrified of a disorganized, chaotic convention. Clearly the Dems got their act together behind the scenes in advance of this move. In the end, I think Democrats do understand that pulling together to defeat Trump in November is the most important thing.
Plus Joe Biden is pretty good at rope-a-dope.
We may never know, but all signs point to a more organized effort than about which we’re currently aware.
