I don’t think this was part of his thinking. Oh, he would want the party to get solidly behind one person, but he doesn’t care about “Obama’s shadow.”
How long did it take Democrats for fall in behind Johnson when Kennedy was killed?
Yes, this is different. But before Biden stepped down, i was talking with a Republican friend about the possibility, and he was all, “maybe we can have someone good”. i said, “it pretty much has to be Harris”, knowing that he doesn’t like Harris. And he grumbled a bit, but conceded that yeah, it pretty much had to be her.
If i was certain enough of that to convince him, when it was still hypothetical, why should it be all that hard to rally the party?
I mentioned this in one of the other threads: what about just four years ago, in the 2020 primaries? When Biden surged and the alternative was Bernie*, the other candidates all quickly got behind Biden, because they judged that he would be the better candidate against Trump.
It stood in marked contrast to 2016, when all the mainstream GOP candidates agreed that Trump would be a terrible choice for the party, and then each candidate expected the others to drop out. Result: Trump picked all the mainstream candidates off, one by one, and got the nomination, because none of them could put their party’s best interests ahead of their own egos.
That 2020 example seems to have been forgotten, in all the narratives of “Democratic circular firing squads”.
- Please, do not turn this comment into a rehash of Bernie/DNC/whatever. I’m just giving 2020 as an historical example.
And I’m making it official. No rehashes allowed in this thread.
Moderating:
Don’t even need to go back that far. Every Speaker vote in the House, the Democrats were completely in line. I think the Democrats in disarray stuff was always overblown and more an issue of some people more willing or able to speak openly in public about it was actual disagreement.
Why then did he see fit to throw shade at Obama today? This sounds like a man who is positively concerned with distinguishing his legacy from Obama’s.
“Well, I’m really proud of my position. I was the first guy to come out for gay marriage. Remember that little problem with the Obama administration?”
~Max
In case anyone doubts that quote, it’s on the White House’s website.
Mr. President, how about your legacy for LGBTQ Americans?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, I’m really proud of my position. I was the first guy to come out for gay marriage. Remember that little problem with the Obama administration?
Nate Silver just released his first model with Harris.
He gives Harris a 38% chance of winning the Electoral College and a 53% chance of winning the popular vote.
Biden was at a 27% chance in the final model before dropping out.
Or just a guy salty at having been pressured to pull out of the race, First in 2016, purportedly by members of Obama’s team before Biden had decided. Now more recently, purportedly double-teamed by Pelosi and Obama. There is also some family history - Hunter’s ex, Kathleen Buhle, was/is Michelle Obama’s bestie.
Supposedly there is some respect and affection, but also some bitterness and tension between the two. Not surprising - we’re talking two hyper-competitive and hyper-ambitious men who have been political rivals at times. Remember Biden was running for the presidential nomination in 2008 against Hillary Clinton and Obama as well (for a solid year - he dropped out after Iowa and endorsed Obama).
I dunno if he feels over-shadowed, he may. But I suspect it is more likely he just feels competitive.
I think that’s it.
He posted this on X so I can’t link but after a lot more polls came out, Harris is now at 42.5% on Nate’s model.
For EC or popular vote?
EC. She’s at like 57% for popular.
Yes, you heard right – currently, Nate Silver’s model states we are likely to suffer yet another electoral/popular split that favors the Republican – the third time in 25 years.
Other scenarios are very possible, but (as Silver mentions in a recent newsletter posting), the EC split is more likely this year than four years ago (when it almost happened), and even than eight years ago (when it did happen).
Also, FYI: 538’s model will be released soon (I’m sure Elliot Morris has been chugging espressos in recent days) – and when it does, we’ll find out here: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight
I don’t quite get this, for what I would consider to be reasonable values of likely.
It seems to me that if Trump wins the popular vote, the chance of Harris coming out on top of the electoral tally is minimal - certainly less than 1%, because the two chances are going to be highly correlated.
On the other hand, a Harris popular vote win doesn’t have the same degree of correlation to a Harris electoral win - but it’s pretty far up there. It shouldn’t be more than about a 15% chance that we would have a popular/electoral vote split, which is less than your chance to roll a 1 on a six sided die, which I wouldn’t call likely.
What am I missing here?
I think you’re missing the peculiarities of the system. The popular vote for Harris is concentrated in New York, California, and a few other very high-population states. The vote for Trump is spread out over a lot of states like Wyoming, South Dakota, and Montana, where like half a dozen people live, but they get a minimum of three electoral college votes.
The contest is going to be very close, and if it’s too close, the dumb system we’re in favors Trump. I think that’s a lot more than 15% unfortunately.
Texas and Florida also go GOP, the 2nd and 3rd most populous states.
Texas is a counterweight, sure. But although Florida is solid Republican, their percentage is not overwhelmingly so, so they don’t skew things as much as New York and California do.
Edit: I should’ve checked the results first. Trump won Florida by three points, and Texas by six points. Biden won New York by 23 points, and California by 29 points. Cite:
Like I said, the blue vote is concentrated.
True, both of those states are slightly purple, whilst CA and NY are solidly blue. In fact it looks like this year Florida may be more purple than the GOP would want.
The chance of this happening is only 14% according to his model, which is certainly high enough to be terrifying, but it’s not “likely” to happen.