I mean, I get how the electoral college works, and how “running up the score” in high popular-vote states doesn’t really make a difference in terms of the Republican electoral advantage.
It’s just that with a 57% chance of a Harris PV win along with a 43% chance of a Harris EV win, I don’t see how you get more than a 15% chance of a Trump EV win coupled with a Harris PV win.
Or, as @Thing.Fish said:
Perhaps this is more a quibble over the definition of “likely” than anything.
I think it may be the modal outcome, in that if you line up all the plausible outcomes on a spectrum from the most pro-Trump to the most pro-Harris, the PV/EV split is at the 50% point, but obviously that’s not the same as saying it is 50% likely to occur.
Thanks for the correction. I’m not good enough at math to fully digest this. I guess the range of possible outcomes clusters under 50% for an electoral win (for Harris), while the range clusters above 50% for a popular win…but only in 14% do both these things happen (because they aren’t independent variables).
According to the NY Times, President Biden was personally negotiating this massive prisoner swap/release about 90 minutes prior to announcing that he was dropping out of the race.
Even in the world of presidential multitasking, July 21 turns out to have been an extraordinary, whipsaw Sunday for President Biden.
At 12:09 p.m., he picked up the phone at his vacation house in Rehoboth Beach, Del., to talk with the prime minister of Slovenia as part of a high-stakes diplomatic gamble to seal a complicated, multinational prisoner swap.
Just 97 minutes later, he posted a world-stunning letter online abandoning his bid for re-election after a bruising pressure campaign by his own Democratic allies, climaxing the biggest crisis of his political career and signaling the end of his presidency after a half-century in public life.
Biden is getting a lot of praise from world leaders and from the families of the released prisoners (duh) for being deeply involved in this complicated 7 country swap. And his staff are making the point loudly about how involved he was:
Mr. Biden’s staff made a point of talking up his diplomatic deftness in brokering the deal, bringing together seven countries in the largest such swap since the Cold War. And they emphasized that he and his administration had helped free more than 70 Americans wrongfully detained abroad during his tenure.
“This was vintage Joe Biden,” said Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser. “If you had not had Joe Biden sitting in the Oval Office, I don’t think this would have happened.”
Harris was also involved in the negotiations, according to another article I read which detailed how/when she participated.
Republicans are grumbling because they don’t want this big news that makes Biden and Harris look really good. They can suck it, this is excellent diplomacy with a great result.
And of course it steals one of Trump’s talking points about how he’d get those prisoners back right away if elected.
In Two Weeks.
Up to 47% today even accounting for this morning’s bad economic news which is part of his model.
Politico article yesterday showcasing Democratic anger against Biden. Basically, Biden’s ego led him to run for reelection when he shouldn’t have, and to drop out far later than he should have - thus kneecapping Harris from the start.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/06/democrats-blame-biden-trump-win-00188092
They are totally wrong, and Biden was perfectly healthy and had beaten trump before. No one else did.
And Biden dropped out at the perfect time - right after the RNC that had spent the entire time trashing him, thus stealing both their oxygen and hobbling their strategy.
People need comforting beliefs, I guess.
Biden 2020 ≠ Biden 2024. He’s clearly somewhere between Biden 2020 and the roght-wing scaremongering portrayals, but anyone (including me) who claims to know for certain where he is now is deluding themselves.
My belief is that he’s basically fine but beginning to show symptoms of normal, non-Alzheimer’s age-related decline. I could be wrong, but I’m not wrong to say that septuagenarians who spend four years working hard in a high-stress job do not get more capable.
I think campaigning + presidenting was just too much, and I want him to president as hard as possible until January.
I also want Harris and Clinton to team up and cover the next four years with a podcast entitled “We Told You So. Twice.”
Correct- he gets tired more easily and a minor cold hits him harder- I know this because that same happens to ME, and i am younger than Biden. But going in at the start of 2024 neither was evident, even to him. His doctors gave him a clean bill of health.
This is unjustified, IMO. Joe said from the outset that he planned to be a transitional President, at least leaving the impression that he would step aside for a younger generation next time out. However, the Democratic Party let him down, failing to effectively promote Kamala Harris or anyone else as a future successor. Joe served admirably. Don’t place the blame on him.
Yeah, and look how well that worked out for us.
Realistically, nothing was going to work out for us short of Trump dropping dead a week or two before the election.
Even in blue-state Massachusetts, Trump did better than in previous runs, even flipping some towns to red. There are reasons for this being discussed in other postmortem threads here so I won’t go into them, but we have to face the fact that this country – like others around the world – is seeing a shift rightward toward authoritarianism.
Cite?
Biden maybe “indicated” to some he might serve only a single term. It was never a public pledge.- and those “some” are all “anonymous”- which is kinda doubtful as to veracity.
I think we covered this before.
“I view myself as a transition candidate,” Biden said during an online fundraiser shortly after he gave his bridge speech, according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/us/politics/joe-biden-vice-president-pick.html).
Granted, “transition” doesn’t specify “one term” (which he carefully avoided saying), so I’m not arguing your point. Still, given his age, the Democratic Party should have been looking ahead and cultivating younger candidates, which they did not.
I really hate to just declare some people as being “stupid”, but in this case, I am severely tempted. Please tell me that this is a joke or a parody headline, because no one could possibly be so blind and ignorant as to Google this on Election Night.
God, if they sold that kind of serenity in pill form, I’d love to buy a four year supply.
And the GOP should have been cultivating candidates who can pass a criminal background check. But given the nature of parties in the U.S. I am missing who does that, and how.