I think people are overstating the votes that the third parties will get, as I said in this earlier post.
The poll numbers for Clinton and Trump are not quite as variable as the poll numbers **not **for Clinton and Trump.
Right now, Johnson and Green are averaging about 9% in the polls. They will not get 9% of the actual votes. People want to support third parties in theory, which is what polls are, but when they actually get to the voting booth they vote for a major party. Additionally, about 8% are undecided. (RealClearPolitics four-way average as as now, noon on 10/12.) In October 2012, Obama and Romney were polling at about 92%. They actually gathered about 98%. The missing voters broke around 3 to 1 for Obama.
Where will those 17% go this year? Johnson and Green will get half of their current numbers, say 4% and 1% to be generous. Of the remaining 12%, another 3 to 1 split makes it 9% for Clinton and 3% for Trump. That adds up to 53% Clinton, 42% Trump. Is a 3 to 1 split too high? Possible, since that was for a sitting President. A more even split makes it 50% Clinton, 45% Trump. I think that’s a bit low since that merely leaves the spread where it is today, and it will clearly be higher.
I’m going with 52% Clinton, 43% Trump, 4% Johnson, 1% Green.
As of now, 10/25, 15% are not Clinton or Trump. That will continue to shrink.
Remember that 1% is about 1 million voters. Utah’s total vote is only 1 million. McMuffin will get less than half, probably less than a third, and a smattering elsewhere. He’s rounding error.